11th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest

[RodneyS]

Reminder: The deadline for this contest is fast approaching: Sunday, December 1, at 11:59 PM EST --  the contest will lock then, and no late entries will be permitted.

So, if you have not entered thus far and wish to do so, follow my below example (except for using the same numbers) and do it now.

BWI:   9.6"
DCA:  5.8"
IAD:   12.1"
RIC:    6.1" 

Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.4"

[NorthArlington101]

On 11/1/2024 at 2:24 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

Going (our modern) average for now… maybe I’ll change my mind before the deadline!

BWI: 11.2”
DCA: 9.9”
IAD: 16.1”
RIC: 7.3”
Tiebreaker (SBY): 8.1”

made modest tweaks upwards based on good vibes - will probably regret it!

[RodneyS]

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

made modest tweaks upwards based on good vibes - will probably regret it!

 

[RIC Airport]

BWI: 19.6”

DCA: 17.3”

IAD: 24.7"

RIC: 14.5”

LYH: 16.9”

[North Balti Zen]

On 11/1/2024 at 11:40 AM, North Balti Zen said:

BWI: 4.0"

DCA: 2.5"

IAD: 5.0"

RIC: 7.0"

 

Tiebreaker (SBY) : 6"

Those are the updated numbers, Rodney, fwiw. 

[Bob Chill]

BWI: 17.5"

DCA: 10.5"

IAD: 21.5"

RIC: 11.5" 

 

Tiebreaker (SBY): 11.9"

[Terpeast]

On 11/14/2024 at 7:01 PM, Terpeast said:

BWI: 9.4”
DCA: 5.1”
IAD: 12.3”
RIC: 2.8”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 4.3”

I'm sticking with my guesses. No changes...

[StormyClearweather]

BWI: 7.4”
DCA: 5.1”
IAD: 9.6”
RIC: 3.1”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.9

[GramaxRefugee]

BWI: 27.6”
DCA: 19.4”
IAD: 31.3”
RIC: 17.3”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 16.3

[Stormpc]

BWI:   19.6"
DCA:  14.8"
IAD:   25.4
RIC:    6.9" 

Tiebreaker (SBY): 9.4"

[SnowenOutThere]

BWI:   17.2"
DCA:  9.1"
IAD:   16.4"
RIC:    4.5" 

Tiebreaker (SBY): 11.1"

[RodneyS]

See below summary table.  We have 69 entrants this year, which is about halfway between two years ago (64 entrants) and last year (75 entrants). 52 of our 69 entrants this year played last year, and 17 either played two years or more ago or are new to the contest.

The forecasts are generally lower this year.  Specifically, here are this season's mean forecasts for each airport, with last year's mean forecasts in parentheses:  

BWI  14.1 (25.5), DCA 9.3 (18.4), IAD 16.0 (28.1), RIC 6.8 (13.5).  

The actual totals last year were:  BWI 11.3, DCA 8.0, IAD 11.7, RIC 0.7.  

So this year's forecasts are in line with last year's actuals, with the exception of RIC, which presumably last year was an aberration for the second straight time.                              
 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Thanks @RodneySfor all that you do!

[RodneyS]

2 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Thanks @RodneySfor all that you do!

You're welcome.  This contest is always a lot of fun -- especially when you win, as you did five years ago. 

[RodneyS]

A Christmas Eve mini-ice storm today ruined LongRanger's bid for a perfect score, but he still maintains his lead.

[RodneyS]

Today's brief squall added another 0.1 at Dulles.

 

[yoda]

@RodneyS looks like 0.2" was the total FYI -- https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS

...Loudoun County...
  Bluemont 1 WSW          1.8   309 PM  1/03  Since 130 PM
  Hughesville 1 ESE       0.8   235 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter
  Arcola 3 S              0.3   330 PM  1/03  Trained Spotter
  Dulles International    0.2   437 PM  1/03  Official NWS Obs
  Purcellville            0.2   748 PM  1/03  Co-Op Observer
  Ashburn 1 W             0.2   319 PM  1/03  NWS Employee

 

[RodneyS]

Thanks -- the below table further updates the current IAD total, which looks like will undergo a major update come Monday. 

 

[nj2va]

These standings will look radically different in 48 hours.

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, nj2va said:

These standings will look radically different in 48 hours.

I hope that I end up in last except for the those that underbid me.

[MN Transplant]

Feeling good about playing against consensus.

[RodneyS]

Big shake-up after today's numbers came in, with RickinBaltimore now the very tenuous leader -- tenuous because he has negative departures at each airport. Mordecai is in good position to take the lead if a little more snow is reported overnight, as his departures are all positive. 

[RickinBaltimore]

Well winter's over so thanks all. Was a great contest and I'm happy everyone participated.

What?

[RodneyS]

A larger than anticipated overnight snowfall has propelled psuhoffman into the lead.  RickinBaltimore had a memorable reign, even if it lasted for only a few hours. 

 

[aldie 22]

7th place with some room to spare except for Richmond. Come on 3-4" on Saturday!!

[RIC Airport]

@RodneyS, RIC was revised to 3.5". The CF6 was updated, should reflect on the CLI later today.

[RodneyS]

3 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

@RodneyS, RIC was revised to 3.5". The CF6 was updated, should reflect on the CLI later today 

Thanks. Not quite sure how the measuring gurus at RIC could have confused the revised 3.0 inches on Sunday and 0.5 inches on Monday with the originally reported 4.0 inches on Sunday and 2.0 inches on Monday, but life is full of mysteries. Here is the corrected summary table, which is excellent news for @StormyClearweather and @Mordecai, who were eliminated from contention under the originally-reported 6.0 inches at RIC, but are now the Top Two!

[Roger Smith]

I've heard of the illuminati and now we have the eliminati, a group that may have a few more members by next week. 

 

 

[RodneyS]

23 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I've heard of the illuminati and now we have the eliminati, a group that may have a few more members by next week. 

 

 

I believe that 17 of our 69 entrants have now been eliminated from winning this season's contest. 

[RodneyS]

On 1/7/2025 at 2:56 PM, RIC Airport said:

@RodneyS, RIC was revised to 3.5". The CF6 was updated, should reflect on the CLI later today.

I have the following reported snowfall for the Friday-Saturday overnight storm:  BWI: 0.5, DCA 0.7, IAD 1.8.  Does anyone have the amount for RIC?  Perhaps @RIC Airport?