11th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest

[mattie g]

BWI: 14.3"

DCA: 9.2"

IAD: 16.7"

RIC: 9.9"

Tiebreaker SBY: 8.6"

[George BM]

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

BWI: 10.7”

IAD: 14.2”

DCA: 8.5”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.5” 

Will revise before end of contest entry perio for official. Just off the top of what I’ve parsed through. 

What's your current guess for RIC?

[RodneyS]

10 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

BWI: 10.7”

IAD: 14.2”

DCA: 8.5”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.5” 

Will revise before end of contest entry perio for official. Just off the top of what I’ve parsed through. 

You omitted RIC.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

On 11/1/2024 at 9:49 PM, RodneyS said:

 Your tiebreaker could be the key to victory . . .  but not necessarily your victory.  

I'm sticking with it. That's about what SBY got in both beach blizzards... perhaps I'll regret this by April. 

[olafminesaw]

BWI: 9.8"
DCA: 8.7"
IAD: 13.1"
RIC: 2.5"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.1"

[MillvilleWx]

On 11/6/2024 at 1:18 PM, George BM said:

What's your current guess for RIC?

 

18 hours ago, RodneyS said:

You omitted RIC.

DOH 

Thanks guys. It has been edited. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Going with:

BWI: 6.0"
DCA: 2.0"
IAD: 5.0"
RIC: 0.0"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 0.5"

[biodhokie]

BWI: 4.0"

DCA: 2.4"

IAD: 3.1"

RIC: 0.0"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 0.2"

[ChillinIt]

BWI: 17.9"

DCA:7.2"

IAD: 15.7"

RIC: 5.9"

Tiebreaker SBY: 3.4"

[cnimbus]

BWI:  19.7
DCA:   6.4
IAD:  29.3
RIC:     1.2

SBY:   14.8

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

BWI- 12.3

IAD- 16.6

DCA- 10.1

RIC- 17.4

(Tie breaker) SBY- 9.3

This winter setup will hit Ric with 2 southern sliders, 

[Roger Smith]

I suspect that the storm track will often run through Ohio and PA into central NY and n New England. Based on that, I am not wildly optimistic for large snow totals in the contest zone but I will go with the top end of what I see as likely (the bottom end is slim to none).  

BWI: 17.7

IAD: 19.0

DCA: 13.5

RIC: 6.5

tiebreaker: SBY 7.2

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I suspect that the storm track will often run through Ohio and PA into central NY and n New England. Based on that, I am not wildly optimistic for large snow totals in the contest zone but I will go with the top end of what I see as likely (the bottom end is slim to none).  

BWI: 17.7

IAD: 19.0

DCA: 13.5

RIC: 6.5

tiebreaker: SBY 7.2

If Roger is pessimistic, we’re F**ked. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

BWI:  5.2
DCA:   3.8
IAD:  7.2
RIC:     6.6

SBY:   12.2

[DanTheMan]

BWI: 14.3
DCA: 7.4
IAD: 14.9
RIC: 5.0

LYH: 11”

 

We are a snow town.

[Terpeast]

BWI: 9.4”
DCA: 5.1”
IAD: 12.3”
RIC: 2.8”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 4.3”

[EastCoast NPZ]

BWI:  4.3"

DCA:  2.1"

IAD:   3.1"

RIC:   4.3"

(SBY):  7.1"

[87storms]

we're all thinking it, so I'll be the first to post

BWI: 0.0
DCA: 0.0
IAD: 0.0
RIC: 0.0
Tiebreaker (SBY): 0

You stole my Price is Right idea.

[MillvilleWx]

On 11/6/2024 at 10:03 AM, MillvilleWx said:

BWI: 11.4”

IAD: 13.8”

DCA: 7.1”

RIC: 6.8” 

Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.5” 

Small revision ^ from previous forecast. Utilizing statistical reasoning for the adjustment based on historical prescedence from Weak La Niña’s in past years. 
 

I will say that the pattern will likely be pretty amplified in parts of the winter, especially in the back half of winter with parts of January into February potentially showing more meridional components to the jet. There is always a chance we luck into something big, just not as likely without a buckled jet as the moisture stream from the STJ will be less pronounced given the slightly colder ENSO signal. Always luck involved and I would be glad to be very wrong and we get hammered 

[nw baltimore wx]

BWI: 13.2”
DCA: 7.9”
IAD: 16.7”
RIC: 8.6”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 16.5”

[87storms]

BWI: 9.2”

IAD: 11.4”

DCA: 10.8”

RIC: 6.3” 

Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.1” 

May adjust as we get closer.

[MillvilleWx]

3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

BWI: 13.2”
DCA: 7.9”
IAD: 16.7”
RIC: 8.6”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 16.5”

If SBY gets shelled like that, I will be visiting my parents at some point at the shore haha 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

If SBY gets shelled like that, I will be visiting my parents at some point at the shore haha 

The winter of @CAPE and @Lowershoresadness!!  If so, I'll be doing road trips both west and east.

[IronTy]

I'm going big, I got a good feeling about this winter

 

DCA: 19.5

BWI: 39.5

IAD: 43.5

RIC: 13.5 (proximity to short pump possible upside notwithstanding)

 

 

 

[RodneyS]

4 hours ago, IronTy said:

I'm going big, I got a good feeling about this winter

 

DCA: 19.5

BWI: 39.5

IAD: 43.5

RIC: 13.5 (proximity to short pump possible upside notwithstanding)

 

 

 

@IronTyDp you have a tiebreaker for LYH or SBY?

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

@IronTyDp you have a tiebreaker for LYH or SBY?

My bad, I was thinking RIC was the TB.   Let's go SBY at 21.5".  

[RodneyS]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

My bad, I was thinking RIC was the TB.   Let's go SBY at 21.5".  

Thanks.

[winter_warlock]

Well in my opinion? This fall reminds me alot  of  1995.. so im going to be a little more  agressive.....

 

 

DCA: 22.5"

BWI: 36"

IAD: 40"

RIC: 12"

 

Tiebreaker... SBY : 10.5"

[87storms]

I think even non-snow lovers are prob open to snow at this point. One of my friends who isn’t really a fan of the cold is ready for a real winter. Just hard to believe it happens this year with the exception of occasional potential. I mean the reality is that the climate is warming…people can get caught up in the specific causes, but the facts are the facts. I’d be cool with a 21/22 type of winter which yielded several productive events.

[Mordecai]

BWI: 6.0"

DCA: 6.0"

IAD: 10.0"

RIC: 5.0"

Tiebreaker: SBY – 6.0"