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11th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest


RodneyS
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3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

BWI: 10.7”

IAD: 14.2”

DCA: 8.5”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.5” 

Will revise before end of contest entry perio for official. Just off the top of what I’ve parsed through. 

What's your current guess for RIC?

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10 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

BWI: 10.7”

IAD: 14.2”

DCA: 8.5”

Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.5” 

Will revise before end of contest entry perio for official. Just off the top of what I’ve parsed through. 

You omitted RIC.

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I suspect that the storm track will often run through Ohio and PA into central NY and n New England. Based on that, I am not wildly optimistic for large snow totals in the contest zone but I will go with the top end of what I see as likely (the bottom end is slim to none).  

BWI: 17.7

IAD: 19.0

DCA: 13.5

RIC: 6.5

tiebreaker: SBY 7.2

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4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I suspect that the storm track will often run through Ohio and PA into central NY and n New England. Based on that, I am not wildly optimistic for large snow totals in the contest zone but I will go with the top end of what I see as likely (the bottom end is slim to none).  

BWI: 17.7

IAD: 19.0

DCA: 13.5

RIC: 6.5

tiebreaker: SBY 7.2

If Roger is pessimistic, we’re F**ked. 

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On 11/6/2024 at 10:03 AM, MillvilleWx said:

BWI: 11.4”

IAD: 13.8”

DCA: 7.1”

RIC: 6.8” 

Tiebreaker (SBY): 5.5” 

Small revision ^ from previous forecast. Utilizing statistical reasoning for the adjustment based on historical prescedence from Weak La Niña’s in past years. 
 

I will say that the pattern will likely be pretty amplified in parts of the winter, especially in the back half of winter with parts of January into February potentially showing more meridional components to the jet. There is always a chance we luck into something big, just not as likely without a buckled jet as the moisture stream from the STJ will be less pronounced given the slightly colder ENSO signal. Always luck involved and I would be glad to be very wrong and we get hammered :)

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I think even non-snow lovers are prob open to snow at this point. One of my friends who isn’t really a fan of the cold is ready for a real winter. Just hard to believe it happens this year with the exception of occasional potential. I mean the reality is that the climate is warming…people can get caught up in the specific causes, but the facts are the facts. I’d be cool with a 21/22 type of winter which yielded several productive events.

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