RodneyS Posted Friday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:46 PM It's time for the 11th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! First, thanks to @Roger Smith for pointing out that last year's contest, which was billed as the 9th one, was actually the 10th, as Roger unearthed records of the first one, which occurred during the 2014-15 snow season, and was won by @nw baltimore wx. So he has been added below to the list of previous winners, including last year's winner @Kmlwx Second, those who participated last year will recollect the consensus that a Strong El Nino was going to end the Mid-Atlantic snow drought, but that did not happen. So, it appears that snow lovers in our region will have to put their faith in a Weak La Nina this snow season. That may not sound too promising, but perhaps the consensus will be wrong again. Also, I note that we are nearing a solar maximum, which just maybe will somehow, some way upset the apple cart and bring ample snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic. In any event, the focus of this contest is forecasting the total snow that will fall during the 2024-25 snow season at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), Dulles International (IAD), and Richmond International Airport (RIC). In the event a tiebreaker is required (that happened 6 years ago), please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one. Please note that you are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch. Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by early to mid-April. The winner will be the entrant who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. For example, if you forecast: BWI: 0.0" DCA: 0.0" IAD: 0.0" RIC: 10.0" And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be: BWI: 2.5" DCA: 2.5" IAD: 2.5" RIC: 2.5" Your absolute value departures would be: BWI: 2.5 DCA: 2.5 IAD: 2.5 RIC: 7.5 Thus, your total departure would be 15.0. Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Sunday, December 1, at 11:59pm. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline. However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. I think the best approach is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2014-15: @nw baltimore wx@S@S@Shadowzone 2015-16: @Shadowzone@Stormpchadowzone 2016-17: @StormpcStormpchadowzone 2017-18: @olafminesaw@Storm @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) @Stormpc 2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide 2020-21: @NorthArlington101 2021-22: @IUsedToHateCold 2022-23: @LittleVillageWx 2023-24: @Kmlwx Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region. Good luck everyone! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted Friday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:59 PM Fine, I'll do it - I'll be the one going super high. Just because. No logical reason. BWI: 24.3" DCA: 20.2" IAD: 30.7" RIC: 17.4" Tiebreaker (SBY): 11.6" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Friday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:18 PM woo hoo! its time BWI: 7.7" DCA: 3.9" IAD: 9.8" RIC: 2.4" Tiebreaker (SBY): 1.6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Friday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:40 PM BWI: 2.0" DCA: 0.5" IAD: 3.0" RIC: 1.0" Tiebreaker (SBY) : 2" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Friday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:57 PM BWI: 0.8” DCA: 0.6” IAD: 1.0” RIC: 0.0” Tiebreaker (LYH): 0.0” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Add1212 Posted Friday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:03 PM BWI: 4.3 DCA: 2.35 IAD: 2.75 RIC: 2.25 Tiebreaker (LYH): 0.50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Friday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:11 PM BWI: 25.5" DCA:15.7" IAD: 26.9" RIC: 13.6" Tiebreaker (SBY): 10.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted Friday at 05:25 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:25 PM 16 minutes ago, Add1212 said: BWI: 4.3 DCA: 2.35 IAD: 2.75 RIC: 2.25 Tiebreaker (LYH): 0.50 I have rounded up your forecasts for DCA, IAD, and RIC to 2.4, 2.8, and 2.3, respectively. If you want them rounded down, let me know. Note to everyone: Forecasting snow to the nearest 1/100th of an inch does not make any sense because official statistics are kept only to the nearest 1/10th of an inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Friday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:33 PM Wow Olaf won b2b, I'd take the amount of snow we got those years over some of these predictions. And that is not saying much...good luck everyone. I gotta give my estimates a few more days thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted Friday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:38 PM BWI: 51.8" DCA: 34.7" IAD: 54.6" RIC: 29.4" Tiebreaker (SBY): 27.9" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted Friday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:23 PM BWI: 15.5 DCA: 6.5 IAD: 12 RIC: 2 Tiebreaker SBY 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Friday at 06:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:24 PM Going (our modern) average for now… maybe I’ll change my mind before the deadline!BWI: 10.2”DCA: 8.6”IAD: 14.1”RIC: 6.3”Tiebreaker (SBY): 6.1” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted Friday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:11 PM we're all thinking it, so I'll be the first to post BWI: 0.0 DCA: 0.0 IAD: 0.0 RIC: 0.0 Tiebreaker (SBY): 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted Friday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:55 PM BWI: 12.5 DCA: 6.5 IAD: 14.5 RIC: 5.0 SBY: 4.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted Friday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:06 PM 5 hours ago, DDweatherman said: Wow Olaf won b2b, I'd take the amount of snow we got those years over some of these predictions. And that is not saying much...good luck everyone. I gotta give my estimates a few more days thought. He’s gotten a few top fives as well IIRC. The late 2010’s were the StormPC / Olaf dynasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted Friday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:17 PM BWI: 5.1" DCA: 3.4" IAD: 4.6" RIC: 2.1" Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): SBY - 1.8" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted Friday at 11:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:23 PM BWI: 5.7" DCA: 1.9" IAD: 3.8" RIC: 1.7" Tiebreaker SBY: 9" Formula: 2000-2001 analog +BWI sensor is now in Siberia -it never snows outside of Jan. +Beach Blizzard III -DCA's gonna DCA ~Mar. 2001 and Dec. 2000 redux (sorry!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted Saturday at 01:49 AM Author Share Posted Saturday at 01:49 AM 2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: BWI: 5.7" DCA: 1.9" IAD: 3.8" RIC: 1.7" Tiebreaker SBY: 9" Formula: 2000-2001 analog +BWI sensor is now in Siberia -it never snows outside of Jan. +Beach Blizzard III -DCA's gonna DCA ~Mar. 2001 and Dec. 2000 redux (sorry!) Your tiebreaker could be the key to victory . . . but not necessarily your victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted Saturday at 02:13 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:13 AM BWI: 4.1 DCA: 1.3 IAD: 3.0 RIC: 5.5 Tiebreaker (LYH) - 7.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Saturday at 04:26 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:26 AM 10 hours ago, George BM said: BWI: 51.8" DCA: 34.7" IAD: 54.6" RIC: 29.4" Tiebreaker (SBY): 27.9" As it was once said, 'go big or go home'! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Saturday at 04:28 AM Share Posted Saturday at 04:28 AM For now- BWI: 22.8" DCA: 18.7" IAD: 21.7" RIC: 11.7" Tiebreaker LYH 8.9" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Saturday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:39 PM BWI: 18.2 DCA: 13.7 IAD: 18.1 RIC: 10.7 Tiebreaker SBY: 10.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted Saturday at 09:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:46 PM BWI: 2.1 DCA: 2.0 IAD: 2.5 RIC: .7 Tiebreaker SBY: .5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted Sunday at 03:31 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:31 AM BWI: 2.3" DCA: 0.6" IAD: 1.9" RIC: T Tiebreaker LYH: 1.1" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Sunday at 10:51 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:51 AM BWI: 11.6 DCA: 8.2 IAD: 11.1 RIC: 5.8 Tiebreaker SBY: 7.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted Sunday at 01:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:01 PM As a warminista, hoping for much less but basically going with climo: BWI: 17" DCA: 14" IAD: 20" RIC: 7" Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): SBY 7" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:02 PM BWI: 4.7” DCA: 3.4” IAD: 4.4” RIC: 1.8” Tiebreaker SBY: .9” Hope I come in last place lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago BWI: 11” DCA: 9.3” IAD: 15” RIC: 7” Tiebreaker SBY: 6.7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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