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11th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest

RodneyS

By RodneyS,
in Mid Atlantic

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RodneyS

RodneyS

Posted
Posted

It's time for the 11th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest!   

First, thanks to @Roger Smith for pointing out that last year's contest, which was billed as the 9th one, was actually the 10th, as Roger unearthed records of the first one, which occurred during the 2014-15 snow season, and was won by @nw baltimore wx.  So he has been added below to the list of previous winners, including last year's winner @Kmlwx 

Second, those who participated last year will recollect the consensus that a Strong El Nino was going to end the Mid-Atlantic snow drought, but that did not happen.  So, it appears that snow lovers in our region will have to put their faith in a Weak La Nina this snow season.  That may not sound too promising, but perhaps the consensus will be wrong again.  Also, I note that we are nearing a solar maximum, which just maybe will somehow, some way upset the apple cart and bring ample snowfall to the Mid-Atlantic.

In any event, the focus of this contest is forecasting the total snow that will fall during the 2024-25 snow season at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), Dulles International (IAD), and Richmond International Airport (RIC).  In the event a tiebreaker is required (that happened 6 years ago), please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one. Please note that you are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch.  Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by early to mid-April.

The winner will be the entrant who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. For example, if you forecast:

BWI: 0.0"

DCA: 0.0"

IAD: 0.0"

RIC: 10.0"

And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be:

BWI: 2.5"

DCA: 2.5"

IAD: 2.5"

RIC: 2.5"

Your absolute value departures would be:

BWI: 2.5

DCA: 2.5

IAD: 2.5

RIC: 7.5

Thus, your total departure would be 15.0.

Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order:
BWI:
DCA:
IAD:
RIC:

Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH):

The deadline for entries is Sunday, December 1, at 11:59pm. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline.  However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. I think the best approach is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted.

The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners:

2014-15: @nw baltimore wx@S@S@Shadowzone

2015-16:  @Shadowzone@Stormpchadowzone

2016-17:  @StormpcStormpchadowzone

2017-18:  @olafminesaw@Storm @olafminesaw

2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) @Stormpc

2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide

2020-21: @NorthArlington101

2021-22:  @IUsedToHateCold

2022-23: @LittleVillageWx

2023-24: @Kmlwx

Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region.  Good luck everyone!

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RodneyS
RodneyS

It's time for the 11th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest!    First, thanks to @Roger Smith for pointing out that last year's contest, which was billed as the 9th one, was actually the 10

RodneyS
RodneyS

See below summary table.  We have 69 entrants this year, which is about halfway between two years ago (64 entrants) and last year (75 entrants). 52 of our 69 entrants this year played last year, and 1

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Deck Pic

BWI: 17.1" DCA: 12.2" IAD: 20.3" RIC: 9.8" Tiebreaker (LYH): 18.3"

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RodneyS

RodneyS

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16 minutes ago, Add1212 said:

BWI: 4.3

DCA: 2.35

IAD: 2.75

RIC: 2.25

Tiebreaker (LYH): 0.50

I have rounded up your forecasts for DCA, IAD, and RIC to 2.4, 2.8, and 2.3, respectively.  If you want them rounded down, let me know. 

Note to everyone: Forecasting snow to the nearest 1/100th of an inch does not make any sense because official statistics are kept only to the nearest 1/10th of an inch.  

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

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5 hours ago, DDweatherman said:

Wow Olaf won b2b, I'd take the amount of snow we got those years over some of these predictions. And that is not saying much...good luck everyone. I gotta give my estimates a few more days thought. 

He’s gotten a few top fives as well IIRC. The late 2010’s were the StormPC / Olaf dynasty. :lol:

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RodneyS

RodneyS

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2 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

BWI: 5.7"

DCA: 1.9"

IAD: 3.8"

RIC: 1.7"

Tiebreaker SBY: 9"

Formula:

  • 2000-2001 analog
  • +BWI sensor is now in Siberia
  • -it never snows outside of Jan.
  • +Beach Blizzard III
  • -DCA's gonna DCA
  • ~Mar. 2001 and Dec. 2000 redux (sorry!)

 

 Your tiebreaker could be the key to victory . . .  but not necessarily your victory.  :santa:

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