November Banter 2024

[Jebman]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I had a TON of turkey! Mom really knows how to cook! We got enough food for twenty people lol!

[Jebman]

9 hours ago, Jebman said:

Was about to say BuffaloWeather, you already know this but you probably need to head south from BUF to see heaviest LES. Map is illustrative (Captain Obvious). If it was me I'd head for Dunkirk or Watertown, because I can't chase but if I did I would be GREEDY for the MOSTEST snows!

I am gonna look for Watertown live feeds, those guys will get November Buried!

Here's a good Watertown live cam 

 

Check it out, everyone! Lake Effect machine is clicking ON in Watertown, NY where up to five FEET of snow are forecast to shred the Northlands!

This is ridiculous, and will likely turn out to be conservative. Those Lakes are WARM. That arctic air is FRIGID!

As of 4.12am CST, roads are evidencing preconsolidation, slush is developing and making the road appear whitish. Full consolidation into verifiable snowpack will develop soon. Some of those flakes are getting big, they look to be at least an inch in diameter!!!! Radar indicates a strengthening LES Band, that is going to suplex the entire Watertown Region right into the snow-covered ground!

 

Overnight

Snow. Low around 32. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 34. Southwest wind 7 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. West wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. West wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Southwest wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 34. Southwest wind 11 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday Night

Snow before 9pm, then snow showers likely between 9pm and midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

[Jebman]

As of 4.30am CST, areas of grass are evidencing full on consolidation (ground is caving in) as significant snowfall rates continue to provoke early onset of snowpack development. Many flakes are half an inch to an inch in diameter. The snowband is strengthening; Watertown will continue to get pounded HARD by developing LES into Black Friday. This is going to be a fun event for many within the snowbands.

I am not going to be able to stay up into the new day - But Rest Assured, this weather system is going to pile the snows up BIG-TIME as we progress farther into Friday. I'll keep y'all updated whenever I can today. Snow depths look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range already!!!! This storm means BISNASS!

 

**************

K folks 1030am CDT update. So far Watertown band is a nothing burger, it's tryin real hard but you gotta go South young man. Maybe later today but right now Watertown is coming up on the drier side of the snowband. Right now Watertown is channeling Short Pump. This place is fast turning into a classic futility marker.

 

WHOA 11am update! Heavy LES incoming! EVERYTHING IS CAVING IN! WOW WATERTOWN  IS IN THE BAND!

Well they are in and out of the Band, I have a gut feeling this snow band is trucking away SOUTH of Watertown!

[Jebman]

K guys you KNOW The Jebman's gonna hook you up!

Watertown is NOT it. Too damn far NORTH. You want a snow fix, I will set you all up. I am SO SPOILED from Mammoth, its not even funny right now.

 

[Scraff]

16 minutes ago, Jebman said:

K guys you KNOW The Jebman's gonna hook you up!

Watertown is NOT it. Too damn far NORTH. You want a snow fix, I will set you all up. I am SO SPOILED from Mammoth, its not even funny right now.

 

Currently shoveling and jebwalking in my head. 

[WxUSAF]

Wtf was that? Fix in for the chiefs yet again 

[MillvilleWx]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Wtf was that? Fix in for the chiefs yet again 

Honestly, this is just a byproduct of only a few teams in the NFL that are really any good anymore. There might be 5 really good head coaches, 20% of players with great to elite talent league wide, and the rest is average to below average, or even trash compared to the previous NFL standards. The league is not nearly as good as it used to be. Add in the horrible rule changes and shifting things like the way the Kickoffs are now and it's not really a great product. NBA the same way with babying players who make considerably more money than they ever did in recent history. I just think we have surpassed the golden era of football and the product will just be watered down. A lot of these breaks the Chiefs are getting are vs bad competition which they seemed to get this year by playing almost no one through 12 games. They aren't as good as recent years when they won, but they still have the best HC in the league and a defensive wizard at DC that will help the team win a lot of games just making great calls and allowing the team the best opportunities to win on a weekly basis. LV are choke artists and have been for years. Expected them to F it up in some way in that last drive. I thought it would come down to an INT, but instead it was a laughable fumble. Sad

[CAPE]

Fucking Chiefs.

Fucking Raiders.

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Currently shoveling and jebwalking in my head. 

Watertown is only getting occasional snow showers. They are already DOWN about 7-10 inches according to the forecast. This is probably all about SOUTH of the projected track. I'll watch the chasers, those guys are like bloodhounds, they always find the heavy torrential LES and go after it like Smeagle going after My Precious in Lord of the Rings!

[Jebman]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fucking Chiefs.

Fucking Raiders.

Fucking NFL.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The new playoff bracket in the NFL also makes a large part of the later half of the season's games irrelevant. Only the #1 seed gets a bye, and to make the playoffs the #8 seed right now is 5-7, so the Ravens can finish the year almost losing all of their games and still make the playoffs. But they can also win out and still have to play the 1st round with home field advantage being the only difference, besides the team played which really isn't a major difference. I would rather sit Lamar through these last 5 games, and have him healthy for the playoffs. Still have to play 1st round regardless.  That's why they weren't playing serious vs the Steelers, they are the kind of team that would aim to get him hurt. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Not sure the Ravens are resting.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The new playoff bracket in the NFL also makes a large part of the later half of the season's games irrelevant. Only the #1 seed gets a bye, and to make the playoffs the #8 seed right now is 5-7, so the Ravens can finish the year almost losing all of their games and still make the playoffs. But they can also win out and still have to play the 1st round with home field advantage being the only difference, besides the team played which really isn't a major difference. I would rather sit Lamar through these last 5 games, and have him healthy for the playoffs. Still have to play 1st round regardless.  That's why they weren't playing serious vs the Steelers, they are the kind of team that would aim to get him hurt. 

Yeah no, Ravens don't make the playoffs without Lamar. Do you know who their backup is?

8-9 won't cut it in the AFC. Mostly likely it will take 10-7 to get in. Ravens should be able to go 3-2, and finish 11-6. With Lamar ofc.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah no, Ravens don't make the playoffs without Lamar. Do you know who their backup is?

8-9 won't cut it in the AFC. Mostly likely it will take 10-7 to get in. Ravens should be able to go 3-2, and finish 11-6. With Lamar ofc.

The Broncos currently make it at 7-5, and the runner ups are the Dolphins and Colts at 5-7. There are 3 wild card teams making it. So if the Dolphins or Colts win out (lol), they are still only 10-7. Broncos could finish 2-3 and still probably make it at 9-8. 

Yeah.. I was hoping they would pick up Daniel Jones. Lamar getting injured is season over.  Still, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't play completely serious (Lamar running for 1st downs) through the remaining games. 

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The Broncos currently make it at 7-5, and the runner ups are the Dolphins and Colts at 5-7. There are 3 wild card teams making it. So if the Dolphins or Colts win out (lol), they are still only 10-7. Broncos could finish 2-3 and still probably make it at 9-8. 

Yeah.. I was hoping they would pick up Daniel Jones. Lamar getting injured is season over.  Still, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't play completely serious (Lamar running for 1st downs) through the remaining games. 

Yeah Jones would have been a nice pickup for insurance this season, and a compensatory pick next year when he ultimately walked in free agency this offseason.

[North Balti Zen]

Fringed. 

[BlizzardNole]

Do they play 49ers at Bills tomorrow night?  I hope they can do it! 

P&C for the stadium:  4-8 inches today, 12-18 tonight, 3-5 tomorrow, 1-3 Sunday night

[T. August]

Eagles fans on Reddit, etc. are super cocky heading into the game. Hopefully they sit back down around 8pm tomorrow.

[North Balti Zen]

Obligatory disclaimer - 

Bengals fan here so pretty neutral - maybe Philly fans should glance at Lamar's record against the NFC, because, holy hell. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Sad that many of us will have wasted such a wintry air mass. 

[Jebman]

Okay folks, Watertown is back in The Band!

 

[CAPE]

Ohio State 

[Eskimo Joe]

Heisy coming down to post in our threads is never a good sign. 

[nj2va]

Drove back today from Long Island - so much traffic, especially in DE and MD.  Is the new thing for Maryland drivers to just ignore every traffic law and now drive on shoulders too?

[Jebman]

Watertown vid, pretty heavy snow, looks to be about 14-18 inches on the ground. Don't know if they will get 60, but maybe 36.

 

[nj2va]

Damn, this Caps team is fun to watch 

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, Jebman said:

Okay folks, Watertown is back in The Band!

 

Visibilities are a-Goin' DOWN, in Watertown! Right NOW!!!! That Band is gettin' DOWN! It took two whole frackin' DAYS, but it's arrived and its here in Watertown to STAY! Snow is really piling up!!!! Those lights, are gonna stay ON all NIGHT! Boy am I gettin' my SNOW FIX!!! I am addicted! I have never been quite the same after the SNOWBLITZ at Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort after they got BLASTED by 44 inches of snow, driven by 85 mph winds, RIGHT PAST THE STREETLIGHTS! IT'S GOIN' DOWN!!!!

Okay folks, this is embarrassing. The band is dead. All that enthusiasm for nothing. This place will be fortunate to see 6 inches of snow. Damn my hopes were so high! I will just have to wait until January when the pattern changes, to see snow in Mammoth again. The East will be arctic for 4 more weeks. Damn that snow band! It's SOUTH of Watertown again. FOOK!

[cbmclean]

Canceling winter in November.  That is very Ji.

[Jebman]

I am canceling it in New York in November as well. This damned snow band is dead on arrival. 

[Jebman]

On 11/1/2024 at 8:01 PM, George BM said:

Here we go ... Yet another one of George's weenie fantasies. 

 

12:52PM EST Wednesday, December 25, 2024

High Wind Warning in effect from 12PM EST Wednesday, December 25, 2024 until 3AM EST Thursday, December 26, 2024.

PDS Tornado Watch in effect until 6PM EST Wednesday, December 25, 2024.

Discussion:

We are about to experience the true limits of what nature can offer in the region.

A life-threatening tornado and severe weather outbreak will impact the region this afternoon as well as dangerous synoptic hurricane force wind gusts behind the cold front from late afternoon into the evening. A very potent and compact shortwave trough is racing eastwards out of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and is taking on a negative tilt as it does so. The cold front associated with it will blast through the entire region from west to east between 2pm and 5pm local time at around 65-70kts.

As the potent, compact shortwave approaches from the WSW an extraordinarily strong low-level jet ahead of the associated front is bringing in record shattering warmth and unseasonably high humidity from the south. Another thing that it is bringing with it are damaging southeasterly winds. With a tight surface pressure gradient along with the ample sunshine steepening low-level lapse-rates to above 7C/km some of the winds aloft will mix down to the surface resulting in gusts of around 55 to 65mph. With the sunshine in place, temps have already risen into the upper 70s to near 80F and will top out into the 80-82F range in most places before the cold front and associated storms arrive. Dewpoints have risen into the mid/upper 60s and will remain in the upper 60sF ahead of the front. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates along with a shallow warm-layer aloft have advected into the region from Mexico. The steep environmental lapse rates, which will only get steeper as mid-level temps cool (down to -15C to -16C at 500mb), along with the record warm and moist low levels will allow MLCAPE to rise to 2000-3000J/kg which is just absurd for this time of year. A line of severe thunderstorms will move in along the cold front and several supercells are expected to form immediately ahead of the main line (mostly within 30-40 miles of the line). Mid-level southwesterly winds will increase to 120-140+kts as the potent and compact shortwave races over the region. The area will get under a region of strong lift as the left-exit region of a mid/upper-level jet streak moves overhead. Effective bulk shear will exceed 100kts and with the steep MLLRs and associated cool mid-level temps overhead, Lifted-Index values will drop to near -10. As a result, supercell updrafts will be strong enough to overcome the excessive shear allowing for extremely potent supercells.

Tornado threat:

All the above combined with excessive low-level shear (effective SRH of 500-800m2/s2) and large low-level CAPE will allow for very favorable conditions for several long-track and violent tornadoes with supercells. These tornadoes will be moving to the northeast at incredible speeds of up to and over 80 mph. Do not wait to be able to hear or see the tornado to take shelter as you will run out of time. Several QLCS tornadoes are likely with the main line as well, especially within bowing segments. With the very fast forward motion of the line, embedded circulations will have very fast winds on their southeast sides leading to EF2+ damage being likely with them, similar to what happened in the Great Plains on December 15, 2021.

Wind threat:

The wind threat will be widespread and destructive, particularly with bowing segments that develop in the main line of storms. With downdraft CAPE in excess of 1300J/kg and unusually moist Pwats of near 1.5” along with the strong instability in general, microbursts/macrobursts could occur allowing for swaths of extensive to extreme wind damage with gusts well over 100mph possible.

Hail threat:

The hail threat will also be extraordinary for the region. With the steep MLLRs allowing for large CAPE through the hail-growth zone along with the impressive mid-level shear, hail in excess of 4” in diameter could occur with supercells. The cool air aloft and dynamics will allow for severe hail (1-2” in diameter) even within the line.

Rainfall:

Most places will quickly receive between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain. Localized spots that get hit by both supercells and the line could get up to 1.5”+ of rain. The very fast storm motions will prevent higher totals.

Now comes what happens behind this cold front. As the front moves through there will be a strong pressure surge (rise in surface air pressure). With cold air advection allowing for more efficient mixing and an 80+ kt low-level wind overhead, winds will gust up to 80mph or so worsening the damage that will have already been done by the thunderstorms. During this time temperatures will rapidly fall into the lower 40s through the early evening hours. Thereafter, winds will weaken a bit. But that’s relative as they will still be gusting upwards of 50 to 60mph through around midnight and will still be gusting up to around 40 mph by dawn Thursday. Thursday morning it will be blustery with temps bottoming out in the lower 30s giving the airports a decent chance at the first freeze since December 9th. Windchills will bottom out in the mid/upper teens. This will mark the start of a colder pattern for the foreseeable future with increasing chances of measurable snow by the weekend with a shortwave moving northeast from the deep south and additional snow chances next week and into the new year.

- GBM

GBM I wanna see you write about a gigantic snowstorm hitting DCA for Dec 1 please!