November Banter 2024

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 more days until Babar is gone.

[North Balti Zen]

I turn 54 in month and some days, and have had a probably unwarranted weird negative reaction to jam bands in my span of years. No good reason for that I suppose, other than conditioned to enjoy the general contours or a 4-minute or less song. Then again, I never did make it to a Dead concert, never went to see Phish or Panic (in their heydey), and any of the other assorted luminaries from that genre, so never saw them in their element - which is live. 

In any event, this is to say, randomly, at the other side of the hill of my time on this earth, I acknowledge I may have been seriously missing out, because I ended up at Billy Strings last night at CFG - drawn because he was doing a special Halloween set built around the O Brother Where Art Thou soundtrack and there were some genuine musical luminaries joining him (Jerry Douglas!) - and had no clue that he's assuming the next gen of jam band place at the top of that mountain - so...holy shit. What a fucking amazing experience that was. I guess he's bluegrass based at heart, but that was a bluegrass/blues/rock/psychedelic fusion of unreal awesome for over three hours (they closed with an absolutely transcendent When the Levee Breaks). They are still in Balt for another show tonight and if you stumble across a ticket you should go (it's a hard sellout). Or, hell, if you have the funds and need to let it all go for several hours, grab one on the secondary market and go. 

I wish I could make tonight's show too. 

Good way to turn off the noise for a bit (whether you alter like half the crowd did last night or keep it sober) - the music was that good. Even if you don't think you vibe with that genre, I bet you would with them, for a few hours. 

 

Peace, friends. Have a good Friday. 

 

Aaron

[toolsheds]

3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I turn 54 in month and some days, and have had a probably unwarranted weird negative reaction to jam bands in my span of years. No good reason for that I suppose, other than conditioned to enjoy the general contours or a 4-minute or less song. Then again, I never did make it to a Dead concert, never went to see Phish or Panic (in their heydey), and any of the other assorted luminaries from that genre, so never saw them in their element - which is live. 

In any event, this is to say, randomly, at the other side of the hill of my time on this earth, I acknowledge I may have been seriously missing out, because I ended up at Billy Strings last night at CFG - drawn because he was doing a special Halloween set built around the O Brother Where Art Thou soundtrack and there were some genuine musical luminaries joining him (Jerry Douglas!) - and had no clue that he's assuming the next gen of jam band place at the top of that mountain - so...holy shit. What a fucking amazing experience that was. I guess he's bluegrass based at heart, but that was a bluegrass/blues/rock/psychedelic fusion of unreal awesome for over three hours (they closed with an absolutely transcendent When the Levee Breaks). They are still in Balt for another show tonight and if you stumble across a ticket you should go (it's a hard sellout). Or, hell, if you have the funds and need to let it all go for several hours, grab one on the secondary market and go. 

I wish I could make tonight's show too. 

Good way to turn off the noise for a bit (whether you alter like half the crowd did last night or keep it sober) - the music was that good. Even if you don't think you vibe with that genre, I bet you would with them, for a few hours. 

 

Peace, friends. Have a good Friday. 

 

Aaron

I would love to go but couldn't.  I did see him come on stage and play with Tool on Youtube during their last tour.  He was really good!  I really appreciate how musically talented some of these unknown artists are and wish there was a better way to share their talent. 

 

Thanks for mentioning, going to add some of his music to my queue now and see what I can find on youtube over the weekend. :-)

[BlizzardNole]

I've never heard of the weather phenomenon known as "DANA" (high altitude isolated depression) which has caused the devastation in eastern Spain.  It's an interesting read.  

"DANAs are intensified versions of what's known as a "cold drop," which occurs when a mass of warm air collides with a stagnant mass of cold air at an altitude of around 29,500 feet"

What is DANA?

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

I turn 54 in month and some days, and have had a probably unwarranted weird negative reaction to jam bands in my span of years. No good reason for that I suppose, other than conditioned to enjoy the general contours or a 4-minute or less song. Then again, I never did make it to a Dead concert, never went to see Phish or Panic (in their heydey), and any of the other assorted luminaries from that genre, so never saw them in their element - which is live. 

In any event, this is to say, randomly, at the other side of the hill of my time on this earth, I acknowledge I may have been seriously missing out, because I ended up at Billy Strings last night at CFG - drawn because he was doing a special Halloween set built around the O Brother Where Art Thou soundtrack and there were some genuine musical luminaries joining him (Jerry Douglas!) - and had no clue that he's assuming the next gen of jam band place at the top of that mountain - so...holy shit. What a fucking amazing experience that was. I guess he's bluegrass based at heart, but that was a bluegrass/blues/rock/psychedelic fusion of unreal awesome for over three hours (they closed with an absolutely transcendent When the Levee Breaks). They are still in Balt for another show tonight and if you stumble across a ticket you should go (it's a hard sellout). Or, hell, if you have the funds and need to let it all go for several hours, grab one on the secondary market and go. 

I wish I could make tonight's show too. 

Good way to turn off the noise for a bit (whether you alter like half the crowd did last night or keep it sober) - the music was that good. Even if you don't think you vibe with that genre, I bet you would with them, for a few hours. 

 

Peace, friends. Have a good Friday. 

 

Aaron

It's really a matter of personal preference, but many of us experience changes in personal preference over the years. Sounds like either this is something that happened to you or you just weren't ready to experience something different until now, which is also something that is a result of the maturity that we gain as we get older.

I've seen Phish quite a few times, but that was all in my younger years. I recently "re-found" them and now I'm dying to see another show. Hoping they play somewhere relatively close by in the next year or so. Would love to see them again and have my wife with me to experience it!

[CAPE]

Keaton Mitchell was a full participant in practice and is listed as questionable for the game Sunday. I would probably wait another week, but pretty incredible if he is back and contributing this soon. I was thinking mid December.

[George BM]

Here we go ... Yet another one of George's weenie fantasies. 

 

12:52PM EST Wednesday, December 25, 2024

High Wind Warning in effect from 12PM EST Wednesday, December 25, 2024 until 3AM EST Thursday, December 26, 2024.

PDS Tornado Watch in effect until 6PM EST Wednesday, December 25, 2024.

Discussion:

We are about to experience the true limits of what nature can offer in the region.

A life-threatening tornado and severe weather outbreak will impact the region this afternoon as well as dangerous synoptic hurricane force wind gusts behind the cold front from late afternoon into the evening. A very potent and compact shortwave trough is racing eastwards out of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and is taking on a negative tilt as it does so. The cold front associated with it will blast through the entire region from west to east between 2pm and 5pm local time at around 65-70kts.

As the potent, compact shortwave approaches from the WSW an extraordinarily strong low-level jet ahead of the associated front is bringing in record shattering warmth and unseasonably high humidity from the south. Another thing that it is bringing with it are damaging southeasterly winds. With a tight surface pressure gradient along with the ample sunshine steepening low-level lapse-rates to above 7C/km some of the winds aloft will mix down to the surface resulting in gusts of around 55 to 65mph. With the sunshine in place, temps have already risen into the upper 70s to near 80F and will top out into the 80-82F range in most places before the cold front and associated storms arrive. Dewpoints have risen into the mid/upper 60s and will remain in the upper 60sF ahead of the front. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates along with a shallow warm-layer aloft have advected into the region from Mexico. The steep environmental lapse rates, which will only get steeper as mid-level temps cool (down to -15C to -16C at 500mb), along with the record warm and moist low levels will allow MLCAPE to rise to 2000-3000J/kg which is just absurd for this time of year. A line of severe thunderstorms will move in along the cold front and several supercells are expected to form immediately ahead of the main line (mostly within 30-40 miles of the line). Mid-level southwesterly winds will increase to 120-140+kts as the potent and compact shortwave races over the region. The area will get under a region of strong lift as the left-exit region of a mid/upper-level jet streak moves overhead. Effective bulk shear will exceed 100kts and with the steep MLLRs and associated cool mid-level temps overhead, Lifted-Index values will drop to near -10. As a result, supercell updrafts will be strong enough to overcome the excessive shear allowing for extremely potent supercells.

Tornado threat:

All the above combined with excessive low-level shear (effective SRH of 500-800m2/s2) and large low-level CAPE will allow for very favorable conditions for several long-track and violent tornadoes with supercells. These tornadoes will be moving to the northeast at incredible speeds of up to and over 80 mph. Do not wait to be able to hear or see the tornado to take shelter as you will run out of time. Several QLCS tornadoes are likely with the main line as well, especially within bowing segments. With the very fast forward motion of the line, embedded circulations will have very fast winds on their southeast sides leading to EF2+ damage being likely with them, similar to what happened in the Great Plains on December 15, 2021.

Wind threat:

The wind threat will be widespread and destructive, particularly with bowing segments that develop in the main line of storms. With downdraft CAPE in excess of 1300J/kg and unusually moist Pwats of near 1.5” along with the strong instability in general, microbursts/macrobursts could occur allowing for swaths of extensive to extreme wind damage with gusts well over 100mph possible.

Hail threat:

The hail threat will also be extraordinary for the region. With the steep MLLRs allowing for large CAPE through the hail-growth zone along with the impressive mid-level shear, hail in excess of 4” in diameter could occur with supercells. The cool air aloft and dynamics will allow for severe hail (1-2” in diameter) even within the line.

Rainfall:

Most places will quickly receive between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain. Localized spots that get hit by both supercells and the line could get up to 1.5”+ of rain. The very fast storm motions will prevent higher totals.

Now comes what happens behind this cold front. As the front moves through there will be a strong pressure surge (rise in surface air pressure). With cold air advection allowing for more efficient mixing and an 80+ kt low-level wind overhead, winds will gust up to 80mph or so worsening the damage that will have already been done by the thunderstorms. During this time temperatures will rapidly fall into the lower 40s through the early evening hours. Thereafter, winds will weaken a bit. But that’s relative as they will still be gusting upwards of 50 to 60mph through around midnight and will still be gusting up to around 40 mph by dawn Thursday. Thursday morning it will be blustery with temps bottoming out in the lower 30s giving the airports a decent chance at the first freeze since December 9th. Windchills will bottom out in the mid/upper teens. This will mark the start of a colder pattern for the foreseeable future with increasing chances of measurable snow by the weekend with a shortwave moving northeast from the deep south and additional snow chances next week and into the new year.

- GBM

[Jebman]

Now on to a massive gulf storm dumping 20 to 30 inches of rain over the parched deep south, moving slowly into this frigid air mass. It takes on an extreme negative tilt and sucks up Brobdingnagian quantities of  moisture from the GoMex and Atlantic. 12 inches of sleet fall in Atlanta. West NC gets demolished with 43 inches of wind driven snow........

[TSSN+]

Ran the ocean city marathon! My first. Finished in 4:43:37

[WxUSAF]

Penn state got 2 first and goals from the 3yd line and totaled 0 points. There’s the ball game. Another loss to freaking OSU.

[CAPE]

Ravens D is still hard to watch. 

Offense has been damn near perfect. That will have to continue.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ravens D is still hard to watch. 

Offense has been damn near perfect. That will have to continue.

If the pass defense was even mediocre, this team is 7-1. Maybe 8-0. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

If the pass defense was even mediocre, this team is 7-1. Maybe 8-0. 

With a serviceable defense they don't lose to 2 terrible teams and are 7-1. Lamar and the offense weren't quite in sync yet against KC, but they certainly could have won that game.

[RickinBaltimore]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

With a serviceable defense they don't lose to 2 terrible teams and are 7-1. Lamar and the offense weren't quite in sync yet against KC, but they certainly could have won that game.

I mean they were a toe from going for 2 to win that game.

[ravensrule]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

If the pass defense was even mediocre, this team is 7-1. Maybe 8-0. 

You mean 9-0. 

[ravensrule]

55 minutes ago, CAPE said:

With a serviceable defense they don't lose to 2 terrible teams and are 7-1. Lamar and the offense weren't quite in sync yet against KC, but they certainly could have won that game.

8-1

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

8-1

Yes. WxUSAF messed me up.

[yoda]

Pittsburgh should be a decent bell weather for this Commanders team next week at home

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Pittsburgh should be a decent bell weather for this Commanders team next week at home

Much tougher second half of the season compared to the first half.

[mappy]

3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Much tougher second half of the season compared to the first half.

I think the team could still end up above .500 and compared to last season, they are doing great hahaha 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

I think the team could still end up above .500 and compared to last season, they are doing great hahaha 

Absolutely. Still no expectations from me, but they are so much more fun to watch than the last decade.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On 11/2/2024 at 2:44 PM, TSSN+ said:

Ran the ocean city marathon! My first. Finished in 4:43:37

Congrats!  I have a couple of friends who were runners years ago and did marathons, so I know that's quite the accomplishment!

[Jebman]

Getting smacked by a thunderstorm line that is training over Buda. Its been 87/66 for a while, now it is 63/55 but feels like 43/16. I am NOT used to it being so damned COLD! Today it was 93/73 and I was so comfy, even snoozed outside in it in a chair while watching the puppies.

[SnowenOutThere]

Reminder for everyone to go vote today if you haven’t! Special election for me as it will be my first time voting!

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Reminder for everyone to go vote today if you haven’t! Special election for me as it will be my first time voting!

Congrats! That’s a fun milestone. Sometimes the election judges make a little announcement for first time voters. 

[SnowenOutThere]

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Congrats! That’s a fun milestone. Sometimes the election judges make a little announcement for first time voters. 

They did, and gave a little bag of candy!

 

[Its a Breeze]

19 hours ago, mappy said:

I think the team could still end up above .500 and compared to last season, they are doing great hahaha 

The Commanders?? Or Pittsburgh?

For the Commanders, it would take a miracle for them to not end up above .500, lol. They only need two more wins (Titans and Saints pretty much guarantee that.) I don't see us losing to Dallas twice...or once for that matter.

At this point, and with the way the team has played, anything less than 11 wins would kinda be disappointing.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

The Commanders?? Or Pittsburgh?

For the Commanders, it would take a miracle for them to not end up above .500, lol. They only need two more wins (Titans and Saints pretty much guarantee that.) I don't see us losing to Dallas twice...or once for that matter.

At this point, and with the way the team has played, anything less than 11 wins would kinda be disappointing.

Commanders lol. I’ve been a fan my entire life and I have seen them collapse and fall apart. I take nothing at face value with them lol

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

Commanders lol. I’ve been a fan my entire life and I have seen them collapse and fall apart. I take nothing at face value with them lol

Commanders are rolling and, per a recent article, they're becoming a FA destination.  I also think the topic of the name change with the fan base is silly...the name Commanders is fine and the jerseys are kinda nice tbh.  Only issue is that it's difficult to shorten the name, but the GS Warriors found a way with "Dubs".

[87storms]

I could see the Commanders beating Pitt and losing to Philly on a short week.  I'm thinking 11-6 should get them into the playoffs which is 4-4 the rest of the way...very doable.