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I could see how frustrating lake effect can be, from both a forecasting and weather weenie perspective.
Imagine being just a bit on the wrong side of a death band, but it lasting for 12+ hours.

Was gonna ask if you if you traveled up there - sounds like not!

Very frustrating. Would drive me mad as a chaser… drive up 6 hours, get a hotel, only to be off by 5 miles and 50 inches.
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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I could see how frustrating lake effect can be, from both a forecasting and weather weenie perspective.

Imagine being just a bit on the wrong side of a death band, but it lasting for 12+ hours.

When I went to Syracuse this was pretty common with heavy snow over the airport on the north side of the city but nothing over campus 

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6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Was gonna ask if you if you traveled up there - sounds like not!

Very frustrating. Would drive me mad as a chaser… drive up 6 hours, get a hotel, only to be off by 5 miles and 50 inches.

Nah just tracking via forecast discussions and webcams lol.

Haven't reached the 'chase' level of desperation quite yet.

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4 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

When I went to Syracuse this was pretty common with heavy snow over the airport on the north side of the city but nothing over campus 

Yeah I knew someone who went to school there. Perpetual snow showers with a few inches here and there, but almost never in a legit lake effect band.

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27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I knew someone who went to school there. Perpetual snow showers with a few inches here and there, but almost never in a legit lake effect band.

We’d get 2in/hr from lake effect pretty often on campus but not for more than 4 or 5 hours. The best snow was when we get a shift in wind to the NW and the healthy bands would swing south from Oswego county producing 4in/hr snow squalls that would come through w occasional thundersnow (had it 3 times on campus and twice chasing during my 4 years) 

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Taken just outside Erie PA today while visiting a college buddy of mine. 3-4” per hour at the peak. I forgot how insane LES is from my college days in buffalo. Magical. Snowpack is certainly going to be building to our north over the next 1-2 weeks

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10 hours ago, CAPE said:

Watertown Live stream. They were supposed to have 18"+ otg by now per the forecasts this morning. Maybe later tonight into tomorrow the band will shift north.

 

Looks like a huge bust for watertown. Weren’t they supposed to have 3’ otg by now? 

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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a huge bust for watertown. Weren’t they supposed to have 3’ otg by now? 

Yeah the band has been persistent to the south of there. The forecast was dramatically adjusted yesterday afternoon. I read some of the AFD and apparently with these LES events the hi-res short range models have a south bias so they tend to lean towards the globals when forecasting the exact location of the bands. I guess that didn't quite work out in this case.

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20 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Killing me to be in trial starting on Monday. A different timeline and I can take some vacation days I never got to use and chase the lake effect snow event about to be underway in western NY. Five feet give or take on the docket for the Watertown, NY area.

 

One of these years, will finally be free to go and try and see one of these events, fingers crossed. 

Do I blame myself for Watertown’s snow bust because I mused about wishing I was there?

 

yes, yes I do. It’s my superpower and it is just the worst. 

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