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JenkinsJinkies
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Set a new daily rainfall with 1.06 inches. More than doubles the previous record (1983) of 0.42 inches. Currently 40.6/39.8 with some fog. Temp was stuck in mid/upper 30's all day, temp rose after midnight to the high (41) so not the first '30's' day of the season. 

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Afternoon AFD from LWX starting to talk up late next week threat 

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday and Tuesday still look dry across the region as a strong
upper ridge builds overhead. A weak piece of upper-level energy
riding along the periphery of this ridge will likely bring some mid
to upper level cloudiness at times, but still expect more sun than
clouds on both days with highs in the mid 60s.

The rest of next week still has a great deal of uncertainty in
regards to how things unfold. There are 2 key players to watch for
the mid-late week event, both of which are just starting to move into
areas where there is better data input into weather models, hence
the uncertainty.

The first system will be a potent upper low over the southwest
CONUS, which will quickly push up towards the Great Lakes through
Wednesday morning. The second system, currently in the Gulf of
Alaska, will dive down out of the Northwest CONUS on Wednesday into
Thursday. Starting to see a fair amount agreement on how these two
features merge and interact across the central CONUS, but still
would like to see a few more consistent runs before landing on a
particular solution.

At any rate, as these systems interact, a strong low pressure system
will likely develop near the Great Lakes. Sometime late Wednesday
into Thursday. The system will then make its way across the region
into Friday. As this all happens, we could see several hazards,
including heavy rain, gusty winds, coastal flooding, and mountain
snow. Again, still lots of uncertainty, but if this pans out as
model guidance is trending towards, it could be a very impactful
event across the Mid-Atlantic.
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8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Mild morning. 51 here. The gfs gives Deep Creek 3 feet of snow next weekend. My plan is to head out there Friday afternoon and get a place to stay for the weekend. 

I think you’re going to need a little more elevation than Deep Creek. I live just south of the lake and plan on heading to Snowshoe. Since it’s off season, it’s cheap - and 4,800 feet. Since you’re making the effort, thought I’d suggest a plan B for ya. 

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1 minute ago, katabatic said:

I think you’re going to need a little more elevation than Deep Creek. I live just south of the lake and plan on heading to Snowshoe. Since it’s off season, it’s cheap - and 4,800 feet. Since you’re making the effort, thought I’d suggest a plan B for ya. 

I thought about the Shoe but it's a 6 hour drive from where I live. I'd love to be up there but I'm not sure about the drive yet. We'll see. I'm hoping it trends colder. I'm planning on chasing a lake effect event if one happens. I've always wanted to explore a raging snow banner. I might save the long drive for that adventure. Thanks for the heads up. Maybe if I head up there I'll see ya. Just look for the guy wondering around in the snow smoking a joint. 

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