ptb127 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey Wes, I think we might do better than most here give us credit for. I really like the SREFS I think all of us are going to get hit pretty hard with this storm.. where the lack of QPF is, the higher ratios will make up for. However, there will be a few places where banding sets up that will get more then most, as is the case in every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think the nam may still be having problems it's precip west of the low because of the convection that fomrs that initally elongates the low so it takes longer to get the cold conveyor belt going. I suspect its qpf will edge west over the dca/bwi area on the next run. Hey Wes -- you are looking good down there with the WSW for 6-10 inches! I just got off the phone with my family in Huntingtown and Owings...just yesterday I had told them no snow (whoops LOL). They are in a little bit of shock as they had not heard anything today about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NWS has issued a WWA for Frederick and Carroll Counties in central MD - totals of just 2-5". Pretty tame here, at least per the NWS. One of the few times where being west of I-95 is a disadvantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 And there's the always overdone day before storm 18Z NAM QPF!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LWX going for 6 to 10 inches SEE MY last map in Mid Atlanrtic thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LWX going for 6 to 10 inches Pretty bullish but I got no beef with the forecast, six inches may be a good place to start on the lower end bracket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 And there's the always overdone day before storm 18Z NAM QPF!!!! For you guys maybe, down here I think it likely to be the opposite as it looks to me like it does some funky stuff with teh convection that ends up slowing the development of the cold conveyor belt and deformation zone. The sref esnemble mean is wetter and usually verifies at least as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Christmas Miracle Storm of 2010 Dubbed it last night in Mid-Atlantic board. XD Except it's not on Christmas.. Post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Except it's not on Christmas.. Post? It is Christmas in Virginia. Edit: Here was post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS is rolling http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_000.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just saw that I'm under a WWA for 3-5" but the WSW 6-10" along and e of I-95 is only 5-10 miles to the east of me. If it wasn't for my concern about a sharp cut off in snowfall accums as you go west of DC, I'd probably go with 4-8" for Vienna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NWS has issued a WWA for Frederick and Carroll Counties in central MD - totals of just 2-5". Pretty tame here, at least per the NWS. One of the few times where being west of I-95 is a disadvantage. I'm in Columbia with a WWA for 3-5" becuz I'm on the west side of I-95 -- I'm betting that'll bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS lost its loving for DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS is a total disaster for the mid-atlantic. A couple inches in DC if they're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS lost its loving for DCA/BWI Gfs isn't useful anymore now except for track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS not looking good, way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Placement of sfc low maybe 10-20 miles south/east of 12z. Not a significant change, but could make or break snowfall forecast for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The track is same as 12Z. Again, you people need to stop living and dying with QPF plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z RGEM not impressive either surprised that obs looks so good and models don't we'll see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I really wouldnt worry about the 18z gfs. RUC looks good. Handling h5 much better. Take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS lost its loving for DCA/BWI Oh well. I was saying in our regional forum that if there was anywhere that had a chance to bust, its us. I'd wait for 0z before panicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The LP location looks identical from 12z to 18z and 5mb stronger when its off Virginian Beach. The precip shield is just smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh well. I was saying in our regional forum that if there was anywhere that had a chance to bust, its us. I'd wait for 0z before panicking. not a total bust, don't get me wrong, but less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 edit- nvm was lookin at wrong hour, not much worse tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 not a total bust, don't get me wrong, but less qpf wow... you kidding me? people need to relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the gfs is too weak with the low right now... i dunno how much it matters but it bombing as early as possible is critical for the ma so in that it might not be worth worrying a ton about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Rush hour Monday morning looks bad from Baltimore to Maine with high winds and blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I can not access graphics from my phone, how does the 18z RGEM look for DC? As long as that came west and is in line with the SREF I would feel ok. If the RGEM went east again (after an east trend at 12z) I would be a little worried for DC/Baltimore. Otherwise there is honestly not much support left for significant snows that far west...from what I am picking up on here Euro is still under .5 for DC area, GFS came east, NAM is still under .5 and 12z GGEM/RGEM were both under .5. So is there any guidance other then the SREF that still shows DC over .5 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ian said Gfs initilzation is 4-6 mb too high of current obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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