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18Z Discussion


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Hey Wes, I think we might do better than most here give us credit for. I really like the SREFS

I think all of us are going to get hit pretty hard with this storm.. where the lack of QPF is, the higher ratios will make up for. However, there will be a few places where banding sets up that will get more then most, as is the case in every storm.

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I think the nam may still be having problems it's precip west of the low because of the convection that fomrs that initally elongates the low so it takes longer to get the cold conveyor belt going. I suspect its qpf will edge west over the dca/bwi area on the next run.

Hey Wes -- you are looking good down there with the WSW for 6-10 inches! I just got off the phone with my family in Huntingtown and Owings...just yesterday I had told them no snow (whoops LOL). They are in a little bit of shock as they had not heard anything today about it.

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And there's the always overdone day before storm 18Z NAM QPF!!!!

For you guys maybe, down here I think it likely to be the opposite as it looks to me like it does some funky stuff with teh convection that ends up slowing the development of the cold conveyor belt and deformation zone. The sref esnemble mean is wetter and usually verifies at least as well.

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I can not access graphics from my phone, how does the 18z RGEM look for DC? As long as that came west and is in line with the SREF I would feel ok. If the RGEM went east again (after an east trend at 12z) I would be a little worried for DC/Baltimore. Otherwise there is honestly not much support left for significant snows that far west...from what I am picking up on here Euro is still under .5 for DC area, GFS came east, NAM is still under .5 and 12z GGEM/RGEM were both under .5. So is there any guidance other then the SREF that still shows DC over .5 ?

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