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18Z Discussion


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15z SREF MUCH WETTER THAN 18Z NAM

http://www.meteo.psu...TNE_15z/f87.gif

I think the nam may still be having problems it's precip west of the low because of the convection that fomrs that initally elongates the low so it takes longer to get the cold conveyor belt going. I suspect its qpf will edge west over the dca/bwi area on the next run.

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I think the nam may still be having problems it's precip west of the low because of the convection that fomrs that initally elongates the low so it takes longer to get the cold conveyor belt going. I suspect its qpf will edge west over the dca/bwi area on the next run.

Hey Wes, I think we might do better than most here give us credit for. I really like the SREFS

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Hey Wes, I think we might do better than most here give us credit for. I really like the SREFS

Regardless, it will be pretty and for us a decent snow with no mixing issues and if we get some banding. There certainly is still some wiggle room on amounts as the nam still looks funny. The water vapor imagery looks pretty good. It will be interesting to see what the 18Z gfs goes with. Right now I'd go between the euro and the sref ensemble mean. From Dc east I think 5-8 is probably a better call than 3-6 now that I've seen the nam.

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the h5 low is pretty good for your area. granted it strengthens more as it passes over VA into the open waters, but the track is really good for u....

Agree. Track is really good for VA/MD. A little stronger than modeled and we get good precip all the way to the apps. DC would get into the heavier stuff too. Pressure is already 4+/- mbs lower than what was modeled.

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Regardless, it will be pretty and for us a decent snow with no mixing issues and if we get some banding. There certainly is still some wiggle room on amounts as the nam still looks funny. The water vapor imagery looks pretty good. It will be interesting to see what the 18Z gfs goes with. Right now I'd go between the euro and the sref ensemble mean. From Dc east I think 5-8 is probably a better call than 3-6 now that I've seen the nam.

LWX going for 6 to 10 inches

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