thomp2mp Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 Circulation near Holly earlier that prompted a SVR warning, along with straight line winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 10 minutes ago, thomp2mp said: Circulation near Holly earlier that prompted a SVR warning, along with straight line winds There was a cc drop with that quick spin up and an earlier one in gratiot county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 Windy am here in NE MN. Gusts up to 50+ for some areas, and even a 69 mph gust followed by a 61 mph gust reported near Silver Bay on the shoreline at 4:40 & 4:50 am. The winds are slowly dying down currently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 The browns of November... The denuded trees in the southside park make for a great shadow exercise this time of year... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 First flakes still a long ways away. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 30 this morning. Coldest low of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 3 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: 30 this morning. Coldest low of the season. Sad. Hit 19.9 here and NOT coldest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 On 11/10/2024 at 8:49 PM, thomp2mp said: Circulation near Holly earlier that prompted a SVR warning, along with straight line winds On 11/10/2024 at 9:03 PM, outflow said: There was a cc drop with that quick spin up and an earlier one in gratiot county. Here is the confirmed tornado report: https://www.weather.gov/dtx/November10_24HollyTornado That cell basically went over my house. It was windy here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 4 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Sad. Hit 19.9 here and NOT coldest of the season. MSP is one of the top UHI locations in the country. Suburbs have had numerous sub freezing mornings in the mid 20s, but the city has only had 2 official freezes. It has been a very warm autumn as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Had frozen puddles all day. Another step taken towards winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 15 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: MSP is one of the top UHI locations in the country. Suburbs have had numerous sub freezing mornings in the mid 20s, but the city has only had 2 official freezes. It has been a very warm autumn as well. DTW had another 33 this morning. This year will technically be the latest first freeze on record (Nov 15) even though it is nowhere near the latest first 33 (Nov 15) and likely wont be the latest first hard freeze of 28 or lower (Dec 4). My opinion is that DTW is not so much UHI as it is airport runways. But we still use the phrase UHI lol. Is the thermometer/ASOS in a properly maintained, enclosed, grassy area? Absolutely. But the airport has grown exponentially the past few decades and there is so much more concrete there than there used to be. There's no other way to slice it. There's been multiple 20s in most suburbs this Fall, and I'm not just talking the most rural ones either. Thermometers in Romulus (the city DTW is in) JUST outside the airport property have been in the upper 20s on these 33° mornings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: DTW had another 33 this morning. This year will technically be the latest first freeze on record (Nov 15) even though it is nowhere near the latest first 33 (Nov ) and likely wont be the latest first hard freeze of 28 or lower (Dec 4). My opinion is that DTW is not so much UHI as it is airport runways. But we still use the phrase UHI lol. Is the thermometer/ASOS in a properly maintained, enclosed, grassy area? Absolutely. But the airport has grown exponentially the past few decades and there is so much more concrete there than there used to be. There's no other way to slice it. There's been multiple 20s in most suburbs this Fall, and I'm not just talking the most rural ones either. Thermometers in Romulus (the city DTW is in) JUST outside the airport property have been in the upper 20s on these 33° mornings. You would love my drive. I watch the temperature impact of large buildings, paved roads, dirt roads, farms, lakes, elevation and so on. It is fun to watch. Urbanization does have its impact on local events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 minute ago, Lightning said: You would love my drive. I watch the temperature impact of large buildings, paved roads, dirt roads, farms, lakes, elevation and so on. It is fun to watch. Urbanization does have its impact on local events. Before i worked from home I used to witness temps colder than the official #s every morning as I drove past DTW. But yes I know what you're saying. It's really crazy when driving through northern MI, but we have plenty of that in southern MI too. A friend of mine lives in rural northern Monroe county and even though it's well south of Detroit the temps absolutely tank at night, far colder than here/DTW on clear nights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: DTW had another 33 this morning. This year will technically be the latest first freeze on record (Nov 15) even though it is nowhere near the latest first 33 (Nov 15) and likely wont be the latest first hard freeze of 28 or lower (Dec 4). My opinion is that DTW is not so much UHI as it is airport runways. But we still use the phrase UHI lol. Is the thermometer/ASOS in a properly maintained, enclosed, grassy area? Absolutely. But the airport has grown exponentially the past few decades and there is so much more concrete there than there used to be. There's no other way to slice it. There's been multiple 20s in most suburbs this Fall, and I'm not just talking the most rural ones either. Thermometers in Romulus (the city DTW is in) JUST outside the airport property have been in the upper 20s on these 33° mornings. We’ve had a lot of good radiational cooling nights this fall. Around here, being in a rural area, there’s been more freezes with nights in the 20s so far this year than we’ve had in recent years up to this point. What we haven’t had are any air masses cold enough to bring a freezing night with wind. This is why some of the warm urban temperature records can be a bit deceiving IMO. Although car thermometers are far from official temperature they sure do show you what concrete and urban development does on radiational cooling nights when driving around. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 minute ago, roardog said: We’ve had a lot of good radiational cooling nights this fall. Around here, being in a rural area, there’s been more freezes with nights in the 20s so far this year than we’ve had in recent years up to this point. What we haven’t had are any air masses cold enough to bring a freezing night with wind. This is why some of the warm urban temperature records can be a bit deceiving IMO. Although car thermometers are far from official temperature they sure do show you what concrete and urban development does on radiational cooling nights when driving around. Oh yes car thermometers are not at all accurate. Usually too warm. But they can show the changing temps up and down well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny8 Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: DTW had another 33 this morning. This year will technically be the latest first freeze on record (Nov 15) even though it is nowhere near the latest first 33 (Nov 15) and likely wont be the latest first hard freeze of 28 or lower (Dec 4). My opinion is that DTW is not so much UHI as it is airport runways. But we still use the phrase UHI lol. Is the thermometer/ASOS in a properly maintained, enclosed, grassy area? Absolutely. But the airport has grown exponentially the past few decades and there is so much more concrete there than there used to be. There's no other way to slice it. There's been multiple 20s in most suburbs this Fall, and I'm not just talking the most rural ones either. Thermometers in Romulus (the city DTW is in) JUST outside the airport property have been in the upper 20s on these 33° mornings. If it makes you feel better im always entertained how long it takes Marquette to get it's first freeze. The city station on the water not the Marquette WSO. Has gone to November quite a few times the past few years, and they are still waiting on their first freeze this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 29 minutes ago, Danny8 said: If it makes you feel better im always entertained how long it takes Marquette to get it's first freeze. The city station on the water not the Marquette WSO. Has gone to November quite a few times the past few years, and they are still waiting on their first freeze this year Living in Houghton and the Keweenaw it was very common that it would snow to the south a few times before finally getting anything of value due to the 'warmth' of Superior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 1 hour ago, Danny8 said: If it makes you feel better im always entertained how long it takes Marquette to get it's first freeze. The city station on the water not the Marquette WSO. Has gone to November quite a few times the past few years, and they are still waiting on their first freeze this year That's crazy. But yeah the lakeshore can do funky things. For instance, this Fall Detroits color peaked a good week or more before Traverse City well to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: That's crazy. But yeah the lakeshore can do funky things. For instance, this Fall Detroits color peaked a good week or more before Traverse City well to the north. I am in one of those microclimates also. 33.8°F is my lowest so far this fall while everywhere around me has been into the upper 20's so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 TWC/Weather Underground is pushing for a long overcast stretch that lasts not only through this weekend, but at least well into the weekend before Thanksgiving. Days of rain and days of suicide weather ahead. The pattern is starting to resemble that of November 2018, November 1992, and January 2024. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Interesting 18z GFS run keeps Chicago and northern Illinois quite a bit warmer this run. Verbatim, Chicago would be without a freeze through just about the end of the month. The lows phase over the Ohio valley so they cash in over there. Will be fun to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Ensembles show some decent negative anomalies gaining persistence in western Canada. This bodes well in terms of having a good source region for cold.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 feels like the modern era is defined by cutoff low precip bombs, we need a well timed and placed one mid winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 29 minutes ago, DocATL said: Ensembles show some decent negative anomalies gaining persistence in western Canada. This bodes well in terms of having a good source region for cold. . Thats why I have really been liking Jan and Feb, the models really have that cold in western/southern Canada. For example, January, already the coldest month of the year, sees average temps in Chicago & Detroit with colder than avg temps in the northwoods and much colder than avg temps in already frigid Canada in the coldest month of the year? No guarantees, but Ill take my chances with that scenario as forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Trending back towards interesting on 18z GFS as the energy transfer happens further west. Going to be a few interesting days of model runs.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 16 Share Posted November 16 11 hours ago, DocATL said: Trending back towards interesting on 18z GFS as the energy transfer happens further west. Going to be a few interesting days of model runs. . Clown maps on the latest runs for Thursday. 00z GFS: 00z Euro: 00z Canadian: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16 Share Posted November 16 White rain joker is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted November 16 Share Posted November 16 European not eager to get on the west trend just yet so we’ll get a better picture of things over the weekend runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16 Share Posted November 16 I'm not sure what will happen with the storm at about 120 hours from now. New models have a really low pressure near Detroit, with snow in Ohio. The models have been changing rapidly. Guess what? I made a new loop! The Great Lakes Storm of 1913 (20th Century Reanalysis) https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Great_Storm_of_1913_loop.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 16 Share Posted November 16 4 hours ago, DocATL said: European not eager to get on the west trend just yet so we’ll get a better picture of things over the weekend runs. . It's back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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