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November 2024 General Discussion


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On 11/10/2024 at 8:49 PM, thomp2mp said:

Circulation near Holly earlier that prompted a SVR warning, along with straight line winds

kdtx_20241110_2356_BV_0.5.png

 

On 11/10/2024 at 9:03 PM, outflow said:

There was a cc drop with that quick spin up and an earlier one in gratiot county.  

 

Here is the confirmed tornado report:

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/November10_24HollyTornado

 

That cell basically went over my house. It was windy here.

 

 

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15 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

MSP is one of the top UHI locations in the country. Suburbs have had numerous sub freezing mornings in the mid 20s, but the city has only had 2 official freezes. It has been a very warm autumn as well. 

DTW had another 33 this morning. This year will technically be the latest first freeze on record (Nov 15) even though it is nowhere near the latest first 33 (Nov 15) and likely wont be the latest first hard freeze of 28 or lower (Dec 4). My opinion is that DTW is not so much UHI as it is airport runways. But we still use the phrase UHI lol. Is the thermometer/ASOS in a properly maintained, enclosed, grassy area? Absolutely. But the airport has grown exponentially the past few decades and there is so much more concrete there than there used to be. There's no other way to slice it. There's been multiple 20s in most suburbs this Fall, and I'm not just talking the most rural ones either. Thermometers in Romulus (the city DTW is in) JUST outside the airport property have been in the upper 20s on these 33° mornings.

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTW had another 33 this morning. This year will technically be the latest first freeze on record (Nov 15) even though it is nowhere near the latest first 33 (Nov ) and likely wont be the latest first hard freeze of 28 or lower (Dec 4). My opinion is that DTW is not so much UHI as it is airport runways. But we still use the phrase UHI lol. Is the thermometer/ASOS in a properly maintained, enclosed, grassy area? Absolutely. But the airport has grown exponentially the past few decades and there is so much more concrete there than there used to be. There's no other way to slice it. There's been multiple 20s in most suburbs this Fall, and I'm not just talking the most rural ones either. Thermometers in Romulus (the city DTW is in) JUST outside the airport property have been in the upper 20s on these 33° mornings.

You would love my drive.  I watch the temperature impact of large buildings, paved roads, dirt roads, farms, lakes, elevation and so on.    It is fun to watch.  Urbanization does have its impact on local events.

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1 minute ago, Lightning said:

You would love my drive.  I watch the temperature impact of large buildings, paved roads, dirt roads, farms, lakes, elevation and so on.    It is fun to watch.  Urbanization does have its impact on local events.

Before i worked from home I used to witness temps colder than the official #s every morning as I drove past DTW. But yes I know what you're saying. It's really crazy when driving through northern MI, but we have plenty of that in southern MI too. A friend of mine lives in rural northern Monroe county and even though it's well south of Detroit the temps absolutely tank at night, far colder than here/DTW on clear nights. 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTW had another 33 this morning. This year will technically be the latest first freeze on record (Nov 15) even though it is nowhere near the latest first 33 (Nov 15) and likely wont be the latest first hard freeze of 28 or lower (Dec 4). My opinion is that DTW is not so much UHI as it is airport runways. But we still use the phrase UHI lol. Is the thermometer/ASOS in a properly maintained, enclosed, grassy area? Absolutely. But the airport has grown exponentially the past few decades and there is so much more concrete there than there used to be. There's no other way to slice it. There's been multiple 20s in most suburbs this Fall, and I'm not just talking the most rural ones either. Thermometers in Romulus (the city DTW is in) JUST outside the airport property have been in the upper 20s on these 33° mornings.

We’ve had a lot of good radiational cooling nights this fall. Around here, being in a rural area, there’s been more freezes with nights in the 20s so far this year than we’ve had in recent years up to this point. What we haven’t had are any air masses cold enough to bring a freezing night with wind. This is why some of the warm urban temperature records can be a bit deceiving IMO.

Although car thermometers are far from official temperature they sure do show you what concrete and urban development does on radiational cooling nights when driving around. 

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1 minute ago, roardog said:

We’ve had a lot of good radiational cooling nights this fall. Around here, being in a rural area, there’s been more freezes with nights in the 20s so far this year than we’ve had in recent years up to this point. What we haven’t had are any air masses cold enough to bring a freezing night with wind. This is why some of the warm urban temperature records can be a bit deceiving IMO.

Although car thermometers are far from official temperature they sure do show you what concrete and urban development does on radiational cooling nights when driving around. 

Oh yes car thermometers are not at all accurate. Usually too warm. But they can show the changing temps up and down well.

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7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

DTW had another 33 this morning. This year will technically be the latest first freeze on record (Nov 15) even though it is nowhere near the latest first 33 (Nov 15) and likely wont be the latest first hard freeze of 28 or lower (Dec 4). My opinion is that DTW is not so much UHI as it is airport runways. But we still use the phrase UHI lol. Is the thermometer/ASOS in a properly maintained, enclosed, grassy area? Absolutely. But the airport has grown exponentially the past few decades and there is so much more concrete there than there used to be. There's no other way to slice it. There's been multiple 20s in most suburbs this Fall, and I'm not just talking the most rural ones either. Thermometers in Romulus (the city DTW is in) JUST outside the airport property have been in the upper 20s on these 33° mornings.

If it makes you feel better im always entertained how long it takes Marquette to get it's first freeze. The city station on the water not the Marquette WSO. Has gone to November quite a few times the past few years, and they are still waiting on their first freeze this year

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29 minutes ago, Danny8 said:

If it makes you feel better im always entertained how long it takes Marquette to get it's first freeze. The city station on the water not the Marquette WSO. Has gone to November quite a few times the past few years, and they are still waiting on their first freeze this year

Living in Houghton and the Keweenaw it was very common that it would snow to the south a few times before finally getting anything of value due to the 'warmth' of Superior. 

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1 hour ago, Danny8 said:

If it makes you feel better im always entertained how long it takes Marquette to get it's first freeze. The city station on the water not the Marquette WSO. Has gone to November quite a few times the past few years, and they are still waiting on their first freeze this year

That's crazy. But yeah the lakeshore can do funky things. For instance, this Fall Detroits color peaked a good week or more before Traverse City well to the north. 

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15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

That's crazy. But yeah the lakeshore can do funky things. For instance, this Fall Detroits color peaked a good week or more before Traverse City well to the north. 

I am in one of those microclimates also.  33.8°F is my lowest so far this fall while everywhere around me has been into the upper 20's so far.

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TWC/Weather Underground is pushing for a long overcast stretch that lasts not only through this weekend, but at least well into the weekend before Thanksgiving. Days of rain and days of suicide weather ahead. :axe:

JAEqnCb.png

The pattern is starting to resemble that of November 2018, November 1992, and January 2024.

flat,750x,075,f-pad,750x1000,f8f8f8.jpg

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Interesting 18z GFS run keeps Chicago and northern Illinois quite a bit warmer this run. Verbatim, Chicago would be without a freeze through just about the end of the month. The lows phase over the Ohio valley so they cash in over there. Will be fun to see how this plays out.

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29 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Ensembles show some decent negative anomalies gaining persistence in western Canada. This bodes well in terms of having a good source region for cold.


.

Thats why I have really been liking Jan and Feb, the models really have that cold in western/southern Canada. For example, January, already the coldest month of the year, sees average temps in Chicago & Detroit with colder than avg temps in the northwoods and much colder than avg temps in already frigid Canada in the coldest month of the year? No guarantees, but Ill take my chances with that scenario as forecast.

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I'm not sure what will happen with the storm at about 120 hours from now. New models have a really low pressure near Detroit, with snow in Ohio. The models have been changing rapidly.

Guess what? I made a new loop! The Great Lakes Storm of 1913 (20th Century Reanalysis)

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Great_Storm_of_1913_loop.html

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