Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

yeah you can envision a very crisp, dry stretch for a few weeks before a killer cutter slices way west and breaks up the Stein

The fear/ danger this winter is suppression and dry overall 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The fear/ danger this winter is suppression and dry overall 

That’s not 01-02

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s not 01-02

That was a very dry fall and a crap winter . All top 5 dry falls were horrific snow winters . There’s almost no way this doesn’t follow suit . Wolf will say we just don’t know and things will change . He guarantees it . 

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The fear/ danger this winter is suppression and dry overall 

Yeah, we're due

[Lava Rock]

Guess I didn't have to rush and put on the snowblower yesterday

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[ineedsnow]

Meh still 5 to 6 days out.. could be a soaking rain, snowstorm, or a partly cloudy day.. who really knows at this point

[CoastalWx]

People freaking out over a possible thanksgiving miss.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Same here. 

Funny thing, didn't the Euro just have a Major upgrade? And what is the difference between the Euro and the Euro AI? Is the second one experimental. Just trying to figure that one out. 

Anyway, The cold air meth wasn't really supposed to settle in until December? People be acting like this is some big loss LOL

The euro overamped bias in the 120-144 range sort of went away the last 1-2 years because it had a minor upgrade in 2022 I think.  I would be surprised if this ended up as flat as the GFS.  It'll probably be something between the two where at least most areas see some rain which is needed.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Would rather whiff and have a nice Thanksgiving.

Would be better for the after dinner backyard football game. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Would be better for the after dinner backyard football game. 

Yeah wouldn’t mind being outside for a bit vs 41 and rain. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The euro overamped bias in the 120-144 range sort of went away the last 1-2 years because it had a minor upgrade in 2022 I think.  I would be surprised if this ended up as flat as the GFS.  It'll probably be something between the two where at least most areas see some rain which is needed.

Euro was bad last year

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah wouldn’t mind being outside for a bit vs 41 and rain. 

Although if we have to stay in and watch the Cowboys get spanked, so be it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

People freaking out over a possible thanksgiving miss.

No one is freaking at all other than you at a Diddy Freak off 

Just expressing concerns over a dry winter pattern 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

No surprises. Brooklyn's maps later today will look really good at h5 though.

[qg_omega]

She gone

[CoastalWx]

I don’t know, might be early to write it off totally. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one is freaking at all other than you at a Diddy Freak off 

Just expressing concerns over a dry winter pattern 

Scooter freaked. A cold/dry first half of December followed by Xmas rains may just send him on the same path as Epstein. Not David…Jeffrey. 

[CoastalWx]

This close out and seeing a whiff vs a Rainer makes me wonder if a compromise is in order.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Scooter freaked. A cold/dry first half of December followed by Xmas rains may just send him on the same path as Epstein. Not David…Jeffrey. 

  Rough crowd in here this morning. 
 

Waiting to see if AmWx admins are on the list of Diddy freakoff attendees.

[Prismshine Productions]

Funny enough cold pattern would help the maple producers so there is some bright side

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[Allsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This close out and seeing a whiff vs a Rainer makes me wonder if a compromise is in order.

IMO. Pattern really dosent scream whiff. I think this will slowly creep back on the models 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  Rough crowd in here this morning. 
 

Waiting to see if AmWx admins are on the list of Diddy freakoff attendees.

Will disappears for half the year. Where does he go? Hmmm…

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This close out and seeing a whiff vs a Rainer makes me wonder if a compromise is in order.

Agreed.  That’s usually how these go.  And if it’s a miss, big frieken deal.  Everybody calm the F down.  

[Snowcrazed71]

What's even funnier is there are some of you that are writing a storm off completely for the Thanksgiving Holiday, even if it's just rain. And then there's some of you that are saying it's going to be dry till the end of December. Come on now, get a grip and settle down.  Same shyte..... Different year

[dryslot]

Wouldn't write anything off here yet, Some of you should know better with how modeling goes, Usually, Having the GFS OTS at this point is not a bad thing, It would be a bad thing if it was going over freaks reindeer sweater right now.

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Will disappears for half the year. Where does he go? Hmmm…

He, Dendy, and Randy top of list.

[WinterWolf]

The hyperbole starts to ramp up, when modeling is indecisive, so posters start to throw around crazy ideas like dry through December, on November 24th lol.    Just like back in early October, with the ridiculous frost ideas…which was all silly BS.  
 

We watch and wait as Jeff(dryslot) just said  in the posts before this one.  We’ve seen this so many times before.  And if it misses, that’s just fine too.  

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Wouldn't write anything off here yet, Some of you should know better with how modeling goes, Usually, Having the GFS OTS at this point is not a bad thing, It would be a bad thing if it was going over freaks reindeer sweater right now.

This. Idk how this’ll shake out, but I know I’d rather see this model mayhem than them all converging on a Cleveland cutter.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The hyperbole starts to ramp up, when modeling is indecisive, so posters start to throw around crazy ideas like dry through December, on November 24th lol.    Just like back in early October, with the ridiculous frost ideas…which was all silly BS.  
 

We watch and wait as Jeff(dryslot) just said  in the posts before this one.  We’ve seen this so many times before.  And if it misses, that’s just fine too.  

suggest 80% eps/geps blend weighting against gefs 20%  - so not discarding the flatter appeal altogether, some inclusion in the latter is okay given to the quickening flow around the epo cold loading that's currently taking over continent.  the gradient physically forces this latter aspect

the flow's likely to speed up ... which unfortunately plays right into the gefs model system's subtle progressive bias that it inherited from previous versions - those were worse with that particular bias.   

i don' know about details with ptype and where.  i'm just talking about averaging for a moderate fast moving cyclone. 

out of town. i shall miss whatever that entails

[ineedsnow]

Icon is a cold rain for SNE Thanksgiving day and misses south with the main system