Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'll be at Pti2---hoping for the best.

Latitude won’t hurt but that oceans edge location probably won’t help.

[CoastalWx]

That airmass will be tough to work with next week around these parts until maybe the very end. Or, it just goes nuclear offshore, but not sure that’s a likely solution. 

[moneypitmike]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Latitude won’t hurt but that oceans edge location probably won’t help.

I'm about 10 miles above open ocean, and anything wind north of due east is a land breeze.  So, there's always that.

[CoastalWx]

18z GFS

 

[ORH_wxman]

That’s an upstate NY special on GFS. Does match climo a lot better than an SNE snowstorm. Still hope it comes back SE though. Would be nice to even just get on the board with small accumulations. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s an upstate NY special on GFS. Does match climo a lot better than an SNE snowstorm. Still hope it comes back SE though. Would be nice to even just get on the board with small accumulations. 

Gonna decide tomorrow whether or not its worth previewing this.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna decide tomorrow whether or not its worth previewing this.

Let me preview for you: no 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Let me preview for you: no 

I think a couple of inches of slop are possible for me, albeit not particularly likely. 

[CoastalWx]

It’s really marginal at 925 in many areas of New England. So elevation would be key.

[George001]

Aren’t threats on the front end of a pattern chance usually more of long shots anyways? Even March 2018 the first threat ended up being a massive rainstorm with snow confined to elevations (Mar 2nd 2018). Some guidance buried us 5-6 days out but ultimately the airmass was too warm. The pattern change in Jan 2015 too, again the models showed us getting buried with 12-18 inches a week or so out and then the storm trended towards a hugger. The point is whiffing on the first storm after a pattern change is typical and doesn’t mean the pattern change failed or this is anything like the abomination that was the past 2 winters. Things will be different this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s really marginal at 925 in many areas of New England. So elevation would be key.

Not the worst thing in the world to lay down a pack in NNE for the onset of climo winter.

[George001]

With no high to the north + the western ridge axis being west of ideal for east coast cyclogenesis I would favor a hugger or inside runner solution with rain for the coast and snow confined to NNE and elevations. The solution on the 12z Canadian is a good middle ground between the 12z Euro and 18z gfs. It fits the pattern.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not the worst thing in the world to lay down a pack in NNE for the onset of climo winter.

Yep 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, George001 said:

With no high to the north + the western ridge axis being west of ideal for east coast cyclogenesis I would favor a hugger or inside runner solution with rain for the coast and snow confined to NNE and elevations. The solution on the 12z Canadian is a good middle ground between the 12z Euro and 18z gfs. It fits the pattern.

Lots of idiots on social media hyping a Black Friday Blizzard.

[klw]

I hereby lock in the 18 Z GFS.  I am getting snow on my new car on Wed so good to have rain for Tues and then Fri Sat looks great,  Sorry SNE.

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lots of idiots on social media hyping a Black Friday Blizzard.

Only chance of that happening is the PV lobe pushing further SE than currently progged and then sharpening that shortwave just enough to bomb it on the coast. Theoretically plausible but very unlikely. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Wet, cold/dry, wet. 

[Allsnow]

18z euro not as juiced up. Good hit for NY state and NNE 

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro looked better north of the pike

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro not as juiced up. Good hit for NY state and NNE 

warning event for them advisory event north of the pike

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna decide tomorrow whether or not its worth previewing this.

Regardless....rain and wind are more exciting than what we had the last couple months (though it was great for outdoor activteis).

 

[kdxken]

Serious ass wind out there tonight. Way better than the high wind warnings during the summer.