Go Kart Mozart Posted November 23 Author Share Posted November 23 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3-4 weeks out is more right than wrong. People make big money trying to forecast that. Otherwise, there would be no work there. It’s not like batting .800 but there is skill there. The last two years it’s been way more right than wrong. But we had good MJO constructive interference. This one time we had destructive interference. I recall reading somewhere that weeks 3-4 are at about 55-60%? I could be wrong, maybe you have stats on that. In any case my gut tells me that they have not been way more right than wrong the last two years...good Lord...how many beautiful LR maps has BrooklynWX posted over the past two winters that never came to fruition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Ukie is a total whiff. Flat. Lot of uncertainty around that Tday system. I think one thing is more clear though…the airmass is going to be marginal. A few days ago we had a stronger push SE from TPV which made the antecedent airmass better. We don’t see that as much now. Could still change, but if we do get an event, you’d favor elevations with that airmass. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 .48" since midnight @ 43 gusty loader plow hooked up others in standby still have squeegee mops from last season lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Nice drink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Nice drink Underrepresented in CT though. Everyone in WCT was in the 1.5-2.5 range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 48 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: You do need cold for snow. . Trough too far east and nao too crushing. Cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Euro cuts west into PA. Rainstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro cuts west into PA. Rainstorm Well, @WinterWolfwill be happy to know that Scott's November forecast is saved at the 11th hour!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is a total whiff. Flat. Lot of uncertainty around that Tday system. I think one thing is more clear though…the airmass is going to be marginal. A few days ago we had a stronger push SE from TPV which made the antecedent airmass better. We don’t see that as much now. Could still change, but if we do get an event, you’d favor elevations with that airmass. The ability of the northeast and more specifically SNE to find the wrong trend has been uncanny the last 3 years. I know it’s wicked early and nobody will lose sleep over this because of that, but it’s still pretty incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Underrepresented in CT though. Everyone in WCT was in the 1.5-2.5 range. AEMATT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, @WinterWolfwil be happy to know that Scott's November forecast is saved at the 11th hour!! I don’t blame people for kind of being at the point that they won’t believe the positive until it’s here. This threat is pretty much carbon copy, rinse, repeat of what we’ve seen for 3 years. Looked great a few days ago, now the major driver of the positive solutions is gone, and we’re left with varying degrees of suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The ability of the northeast and more specifically SNE to find the wrong trend has been uncanny the last 3 years. I know it’s wicked early and nobody will lose sleep over this because of that, but it’s still pretty incredible People have to remember not to lock in 7-10 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: People have to remember not to lock in 7-10 days out. I don’t think anyone did, I will certainly always be skeptical before Jan given my location, but my point stands. It got worse, not better, which is what we’ve seen almost exclusively for 3 years That Boston snow stat is incredible, was the last 4” snow there the Jan 22 Blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: AEMATT? Yea. George must of made that map overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t think anyone did, I will certainly always be skeptical before Jan given my location, but my point stands. It got worse, not better, which is what we’ve seen almost exclusively for 3 years I can’t get mad at something looking worse from a few weenie progs over a week out in late November. All these solutions from flat to rain into Maine are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t blame people for kind of being at the point that they won’t believe the positive until it’s here. This threat is pretty much carbon copy, rinse, repeat of what we’ve seen for 3 years. Looked great a few days ago, now the major driver of the positive solutions is gone, and we’re left with varying degrees of suck. I have come into to this season with the "believe when see" mindset. People forget how good things looked going into last December and it completely evaporated. I don't expect this December to be that warm, but point remains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t think anyone did, I will certainly always be skeptical before Jan given my location, but my point stands. It got worse, not better, which is what we’ve seen almost exclusively for 3 years You get a run that jackpots an area... of course its going to get worse after that though. Like you aren't going to run 7 days of jackpot run after jackpot run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t think anyone did, I will certainly always be skeptical before Jan given my location, but my point stands. It got worse, not better, which is what we’ve seen almost exclusively for 3 years That Boston snow stat is incredible, was the last 4” snow there the Jan 22 Blizzard? No later Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Just now, powderfreak said: You get a run that jackpots an area... of course its going to get worse after that though. Like you aren't going to run 7 days of jackpot run and jackpot run. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t blame people for kind of being at the point that they won’t believe the positive until it’s here. This threat is pretty much carbon copy, rinse, repeat of what we’ve seen for 3 years. Looked great a few days ago, now the major driver of the positive solutions is gone, and we’re left with varying degrees of suck. Everyone is in the believe it until see it mode. Zero expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have come into to this season with the "believe when see" mindset. People forget how good things looked going into last December and it completely evaporated. I don't expect this December to be that warm, but point remains. Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Everyone is in the believe it until see it mode. Zero expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: People have to remember not to lock in 7-10 days out. Esp in November. Lol Even the euro is a decent shot of snow over interior N of pike. It’s hard to snow in the CP and lowlands that early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Cancel winter. I just ordered my Ego snowblower. Arrives on Wednesday. Won’t be using it much 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Life will be good north of the 45th parallel hopefully the next few weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Esp in November. Lol Even the euro is a decent shot of snow over interior N of pike. It’s hard to snow in the CP and lowlands that early. I would take any type of residual cover from that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Euro would be a mess here Thanksgiving evening. Snow to garbage to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: People have to remember not to lock in 7-10 days out. Except for the breezy 50s on Xmas. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro would be a mess here Thanksgiving evening. Snow to garbage to rain. Let’s shut down 93. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have come into to this season with the "believe when see" mindset. People forget how good things looked going into last December and it completely evaporated. I don't expect this December to be that warm, but point remains. Last December we were relying on a huge progged NAO block. Those are inherently less stable than N PAC pattern…they have a more stochastic behavior. That’s also probably why you hear a lot of Mets say “I’ll roll the dice with a great PAC look any day”…those tend to verify more than random huge NAO blocks. Of course, if we actually get a great NAO block that pins a TPV in SE Canada, we will clean up, but it’s hard to trust model progs that show that. Right now, we’re relying on an NAO block for next week as we wait for the PAC to improve further. So it’s not surprising to see these shifts in the SE Canada look that make it harder to snow here. Esp in November. I’m cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of December given the vastly improved N PAC. It’s funny…I went back and looked at some of the progs for last December and even the ones where we had some PNA ridging trying to poke up into EPO domain, we had a vortex over the WPO domain…it was always a turd in the punchbowl lurking beneath the surface. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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