Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That western ridge is pretty pumped in the long range…esp on the EPS. 
 

Feel like the pattern is pretty ripe for a good setup on this look…hopefully the shortwaves cooperate

Yeah sure hope so. After 1000+ days of not seeing a 4”+ event, let’s get something to go right.

[dryslot]

That looks very good going forward, We will get something to work out, Have to break the bad luck streak of the past few years when we had a decent period and it didn't produce.

[Allsnow]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah sure hope so. After 1000+ days of not seeing a 4”+ event, let’s get something to go right.

Is the trough axis a bit to far east? I guess that’s my only concern currently 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Is the trough axis a bit to far east? I guess that’s my only concern currently 

Some models sink the -NAO south and squash things, but I’m not worrying about that now. That ridge position out west is not a suppression look so maybe once the ridge in the Davis Straits weakens that may help? In any case, for early in the season I can’t complain about this look. Of course expectations in check.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Is the trough axis a bit to far east? I guess that’s my only concern currently 

It’s a mean position…what actually makes it nice is that is a lower risk for cutters. But esp for the coast, you want the trough axis pretty close…esp in December. 

[CoastalWx]

Temp is dropping and mix elevation seems to be near 700’ or so per KBOX CC.

[dryslot]

Snowing in Jackman.

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah sure hope so. After 1000+ days of not seeing a 4”+ event, let’s get something to go right.

That long for you ? Jeez

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That long for you ? Jeez

Yep. I don’t think I had an event more than 3” last winter.

[weathafella]

I bought a gallon of stabilized gas for the snowblower Thursday night.  I’m gonna top it off before we leave for IAH Monday and then hope for minimal delays returning home Friday.  I ruined 2 winters ago by buying it in December in the first place and hopefully not ruining this one by being prepared….

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Ensembles look jacked in the long range. Pretty sure my initial thoughts a few weeks ago will be tossed. 

Eh...yea, our December idea is in peril, but I'm not sure we don't still end up +3ish on the month when its 60 on Xmas. Only thing I will concede is the cold looks to last longer than I implied.

[ariof]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh...yea, our December idea is in peril, but I'm not sure we don't still end up +3ish on the month when its 60 on Xmas. Only thing I will concede is the cold looks to last longer than I implied.

We don't know much in the long term other than that the Grinch will make an appearance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ariof said:

We don't know much in the long term other than that the Grinch will make an appearance.

I'm def. nervous about my +3 to +5 Dec range, but I'm not waiving any white flags yet. I think the lower end of that is still very doable.

[WinterWolf]

On 11/4/2024 at 9:45 AM, CoastalWx said:

Everything looks like crap overall heading into December. I don't see this magical change occurring. Maybe it gets better during the month itself. The overall Pacific has not changed much despite the ENSO shift from Nino.

I’m very Glad to see this Scott is gone from just 2.5 weeks ago on November 4th, when I was trying to explain that we didn’t know what 3-4 weeks from then was going to bring.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m very Glad to see this Scott is gone from just 2.5 weeks ago on November 4th, when I was trying to explain that we don’t know what 3-4 weeks from then was going to bring.  

Eh, we have skill there. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. It’s possible it’s delayed too which would stink. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh, we have skill there. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. It’s possible it’s delayed too which would stink. 

Right...I see a lot of football spiking on social media...these morons were poking fun at seasonal forecasts that included any semblance of a southeast ridge and a warm east/cold west alignment. My response was "its November".

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...I see a lot of football spiking on social media...these morons were poking fun at seasonal forecasts that included any semblance of a southeast ridge and a warm east/cold west alignment. My response was "its November".

The idea of December to start poorly is also supported currently by MJO. But that wave is weak and perhaps overpowered by other things going on in the Pacific. 
 

Either way, I hope we can take advantage of this. 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh, we have skill there. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. It’s possible it’s delayed too which would stink. 

Each day is not complete until a life’s lesson scolding is handed out by Wolf 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The idea of December to start poorly is also supported currently by MJO. But that wave is weak and perhaps overpowered by other things going on in the Pacific. 
 

Either way, I hope we can take advantage of this. 

I thought the end of November and start of December would be wintry, bit its lasting longer than I had thought.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Each day is not complete until a life’s lesson scolding is handed out by Wolf 

He thinks it’s the 1950s and we have no skill beyond day 2. We are examining caterpillars, sticking finger in the air, and judging clouds when we forecast.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Each day is not complete until a life’s lesson scolding is handed out by Wolf 

Beer at 10:30AM 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eh, we have skill there. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. It’s possible it’s delayed too which would stink. 

Believe me, I’m not, and Nobody should be thinking wire to wire stuff…it doesn’t work that way here. It will relax after a period of colder weather.  But the skill from 2-3 weeks ago was crap, and that was what I was going back and forth with you about. We’ve all seen it do that in both directions many times.  And that was my message. 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

He thinks it’s the 1950s and we have no skill beyond day 2. We are examining caterpillars, sticking finger in the air, and judging clouds when we forecast.

No, that’s not true at all.  But I just don’t trust 4 week progs, it’s low skill imo, as were seeing.  Sure, Sometime they can be right…lots of times they are not. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I am thinking December winds up AN in terms of temp.  A general +2 or +3 seems likely.   The requisite parakeets in Christmas trees. 

[cleetussnow]

48 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I bought a gallon of stabilized gas for the snowblower Thursday night.  I’m gonna top it off before we leave for IAH Monday and then hope for minimal delays returning home Friday.  I ruined 2 winters ago by buying it in December in the first place and hopefully not ruining this one by being prepared….

Do us all a favor and heave that thing into a river.  Save winter!

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The idea of December to start poorly is also supported currently by MJO. But that wave is weak and perhaps overpowered by other things going on in the Pacific. 
 

Either way, I hope we can take advantage of this. 

It’s always a marriage of sorts with all these indicators/everything.
 

Yes, I agree with you 100% on hoping we can score some events…would be great for all of us.  

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Do us all a favor and heave that thing into a river.  Save winter!

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS looking good so far

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Believe me, I’m not, and Nobody should be thinking wire to wire stuff…it doesn’t work that way here. It will relax after a period of colder weather.  But the skill from 2-3 weeks ago was crap, and that was what I was going back and forth with you about. We’ve all seen it do that in both directions many times.  And that was my message. 

 

No, that’s not true at all.  But I just don’t trust 4 week progs, it’s low skill imo, as were seeing.  Sure, Sometime they can be right…lots of times they are not. 

3-4 weeks out is more right than wrong. People make big money trying to forecast that. Otherwise, there would be no work there. It’s not like batting .800 but there is skill there.
 

The last two years it’s been way more right than wrong. But we had good MJO constructive interference. This one time we had destructive interference. 

[ineedsnow]

GFS looks warm near the coast to start

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

GFS looks warm near the coast to start

Very marginal. But better deeper interior. Maybe it flashes over at the end.