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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 1:59 PM, jbenedet said:

Last night was odd in how the temperature kept rising on gusty northeast winds, up to 49 at PSM around 7z this morning.

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yeah this system was inverted ( laterally ...) all along in the models.   it's a diving -d(nao) under pinning low event, that is arriving on the heels of an antecedent warm pattern - consequentially, there was a defined dearth in cold leading the system environment.  the cold is on the south side of the circulation because of that anomaly.

and ... what east and/or northeast trajectories there were( you know all this ... ) ... gom buoys are reporting 50 to 52 ssts

it's just is was a typical gloomy november deal

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HIPPYVALLEY
HIPPYVALLEY

My friend’s parents barn burned down in the Buckland brushfire this evening.  

dendrite
dendrite

Initialized by Ann Selzer

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

Well I guess we've arrived to the point in the season where 1. The first "winter" threat is around Thanksgiving. Then when that doesn't happen... 2. EPS shows big pattern change coming aroun

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 3:21 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, that threat has been dying a slow death the last couple days, no surprising.

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I hate these stupid setups which are nothing more than just cold fronts moving through with one or multiple waves developing along them. Unless you have latitude or elevation, so much has to go right with these. There is still potential the front/wave are suppressed far enough south to give hope, but the baroclinic zone would almost certainly be just off the coast which is going to about cook anyone outside of far interior/elevation. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 3:23 PM, weatherwiz said:

I hate these stupid setups which are nothing more than just cold fronts moving through with one or multiple waves developing along them. Unless you have latitude or elevation, so much has to go right with these. There is still potential the front/wave are suppressed far enough south to give hope, but the baroclinic zone would almost certainly be just off the coast which is going to about cook anyone outside of far interior/elevation. 

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That’s ok…setting the table for just beyond. We can wait a tad longer. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 3:21 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, that threat has been dying a slow death the last couple days, no surprising.

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hmm... depends on what source one is using?

this is the best ensemble presentation for that 29th thing to date, 00z eps mean.    part of the problem with this event in guidance, other than that tiny little in "180" for time range ...  is that it is sub-index scaled.  the models will be more stochastic with small domain space events than they will with large mass field -directed majors.   in other words, wait it out a couple of days is kind of obvious

 

image.thumb.png.ae92c35a86949c6d8942d64888bea3bb.png

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 3:27 PM, WinterWolf said:

That’s ok…setting the table for just beyond. We can wait a tad longer. 

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This is true...this certainly has potential to set things up behind it. In that pattern behind it we would have two potential ways to get storms

1) Clippers diving southeast 

2) Miller B's

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 2:20 PM, bwt3650 said:

Snow level about 400' in NJ.  Crazy seeing rain on the cam at Jay and snow here. though only a dusting.  Above 1000' in NW Jersey by ski resort has 6-12.

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Where I grew up in NNJ is at 700, probably a couple inches there.

Had 0.39" thru 7 AM, about ~0.2" since.  Still haven't seen a flake this season.

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Patrick-02540

Patrick-02540

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 3:44 PM, iceman1 said:

at least i can go out and sit by a fire in my fire pit with a few drinks after this rain something we haven't been able to do for the past 2 months.

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Exactly.  I have a massive debris burn pile going back to early September.  Gonna head out there tomorrow afternoon and start my barrel incinerator for the small stuff.  Will be too windy for an open fire, though. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 3:21 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, that threat has been dying a slow death the last couple days, no surprising.

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I’d have to agree with Tip on this.  It’s been off and on the last few days(it’s there and it’s not), so nothing is dying if modeling doesn’t know exactly how to handle things at a week out in time.  Patience. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 3:32 PM, weatherwiz said:

This is true...this certainly has potential to set things up behind it. In that pattern behind it we would have two potential ways to get storms

1) Clippers diving southeast 

2) Miller B's

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Oh yea. Big December incoming. Sled engines in Southington being lubed up while wolves chase down turkeys. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 11/22/2024 at 4:19 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh yea. Big December incoming. Sled engines in Southington being lubed up while wolves chase down turkeys. 

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I gotta say...I am feeling much better than I was, even from a week ago. One big difference between now and the last few winters is we are already building significant cold into western Canada and loading the cold into our source regions. This end of week system does load in that colder air here. 

One great plus too is that ridging which has been quite strong across the south really breaks down. This was a concern of mine because ant flexing of that ridge would really screw us and yield a favorable pattern for the OV/upper-midwest. 

IMO, the only way we really get screwed if this pattern does verify is if we end up suppressed and dry...now that can't be ruled out but I think we are going to have some opportunities to at least watch.

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