Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[FXWX]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

didn't ask me but agreed ( bold )

it's marginal+ environment, but so far there are ptype rad returns west of the capital district, already, prior to best dynamics and also, albeit fractional ... it's a colder leaning quagmire during the night at this time of year. 

John, assume you are always included! Lol..  thanks for the thoughts... 

[FXWX]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18z HRRR rips in SW CT later tonight

Yep... 

[Damage In Tolland]

Runaway iceberg is gonna wake to 6+ and power out . 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Yep... 

lol enough cold air wraps in and even changes my area by 5am wtf lol

[ineedsnow]

not much precip left by that time but still 

[Layman]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 

This is a favorable setup for snowfall, even down to the Mason-Dixon line. If it was late Dec instead of late Nov, I would be more open to workable coastal snowfall, though that is a difficult ask given how warm waters are. The main points of contention are: 1) how quickly does the vort get ejected? 2) how much of the vort gets ejected? and 3) how strong is the confluence? I would argue that the confluence is the most important part of the setup... if it vanishes, there is not enough press from the cold air and the setup is DOA. However, if the vort comes out too early, it won't matter. This is unlikely, though... if anything, the vort would come out of the Rockies too late or too sheared rather than before confluence forms. How the 50/50 ULL trends is crucial to this setup and I will be watching that closely.

 

 

Is there a baseline ocean temperature "required" for consistent snow on the coast?  Or, a gradient where it's more likely at or below a certain water temp?

.07" of rain on the day so far.  Forecast was for between 1.25" - 1.50"ish but it's still early yet.

[FXWX]

15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lol enough cold air wraps in and even changes my area by 5am wtf lol

Pretty interesting setup across sw CT / se NY with lots of bust potential both ways... 

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, FXWX said:

How you feeling about the far eastern NY / Western CT high terrain areas during the predawn hours Friday?  Crazy model discrepancies?  Erring on the low side of the model consensus, but kinda has now-cast type of feel to it?  

 

Yeah it’s one of those scenarios where if you can rip the column with massive omega, there could be a few hours of a surprise heavy wet snow. Column needs to cool a decent amount but we know huge dynamics can do it if they pan out. 

[Spanks45]

36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z HRRR rips in SW CT later tonight

Is there a HRRR/GFS rule? Just kinding, but they are pretty similar in trying to flip Fairfield County over to heavy snow. Another case where the hill behind me might pick up a couple inches and I have white rain....should be fun to watch it develop, if it does

[HIPPYVALLEY]

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

not much precip left by that time but still 

Nothing wintery weather notable is happening E of the Southern Berkshires with this.  

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Nothing wintery weather notable is happening E of the Southern Berkshires with this.  

Maybe not in the valley but I got hope up here for maybe a coating

[Sey-Mour Snow]

35 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Pretty interesting setup across sw CT / se NY with lots of bust potential both ways... 

wild to see cold air advection from the SW

[Patrick-02540]

20 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Is there a HRRR/GFS rule? Just kinding, but they are pretty similar in trying to flip Fairfield County over to heavy snow. Another case where the hill behind me might pick up a couple inches and I have white rain....should be fun to watch it develop, if it does

Yeah, I'll be pouring a cold rain, and 15 miles to my southwest they'll be buried in 10 inches.  

[Patrick-02540]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

wild to see cold air advection from the SW

I remember being in Westchester county NY in 2010 or 2011 and we were getting obliterated with heavy snow, while it was pouring rain everywhere north and northeast of there.  

[iceman1]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

There’s a chance there…can we convert

so your saying there is a chance 

[Go Kart Mozart]

9 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Yeah, I'll be pouring a cold rain, and 15 miles to my southwest they'll be buried in 10 inches.  

The heavy snow line will end just short of Trumbull.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

I remember being in Westchester county NY in 2010 or 2011 and we were getting obliterated with heavy snow, while it was pouring rain everywhere north and northeast of there.  

That was 2010. 

[iceman1]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell 

i am at .83 "  of rain boy did we need it 

[WinterWolf]

At .7” so far…decent rain all day. 

[SJonesWX]

i am <0.1" so far. PIT (Paranoid in Tolland) nailed it for my area (but not his) 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

i am <0.1" so far. PIT (Paranoid in Tolland) nailed it for my area (but not his) 

Pretty much as expected through this time.

[Spanks45]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At .7” so far…decent rain all day. 

A nice soaking rain too....not much runoff

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

A nice soaking rain too....not much runoff

Ya, it came down moderately for a long period of time.  Soaked in nice. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, it came down moderately for a long period of time.  Soaked in nice. 

A great day

[Modfan2]

.55 here in E CT; fail on the 1-1.5 region wide

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

.55 here in E CT; fail on the 1-1.5 region wide

It's not even close to over yet

[Lava Rock]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro has zero snow tomorrow night 

just be happy you're getting rn

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

It's not even close to over yet

Seriously.  Some places will see rain through tomorrow night.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

40 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

.55 here in E CT; fail on the 1-1.5 region wide

Is it Sunday already?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Seriously.  Some places will see rain through tomorrow night.

Even Saturday…especially for ECT.