Spanks45 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: GFS insisting on a CCB over extreme western NE tonight and SENY .. would be some very heavy snow Lol, GFS clown with 12+ over Fairfield county.....I guess where that low comes in and deepens determine who sees some flakes, Ridgefield hills will probably see a couple slushy inches in that scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: GFS clown Just needed to post this, all we need to know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Hell, even BWI may be able to pull some minor accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Newark could end up getting their first T of snow (maybe even like 1/2'') before places like BDL, ORH, BOS...did BTV get anything with that cold shot a few weeks back? And before here in the Maine foothills? Latest I've had to wait for the season's first flakes is today's date, so a new late start whenever one is seen. We head for SNJ this coming Tuesday and there's a chance that no flakes arrive before then. even BWI may be able to pull some minor accumulation Another 2009-10 on the way? That was the season when they got 7" more than CAR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 GFS trying for Thanksgiving day again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: .25. Radar looks shall we say “unpromising” That’s double my total in Greenfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS trying for Thanksgiving day again Shocker lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Moderate/heavy rain currently…almost .5” so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS trying for Thanksgiving day again in SNE I'd just take some more rain. not getting greedy...yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 CMC is a scraper the day after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 I'd keep an eye on 11/29/-11/30 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 45 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Early season melting for us, IF the thermals on the GFS or just the GFS for that matter could be believed... Flakes melting to liquid as they fall, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 that is a cold look for late November developing. There's a clipper ish event after on the GFS but doesn't get a lot into NE area at this point. Chances for something remain in play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Flakes melting to liquid as they fall, sure. good for our moods at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I'd keep an eye on 11/29/-11/30 right now. Yes, that’s been dancing around in that time frame for quite a while now….something’s there…modeling trying to resolve what it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: good for our moods at least Yes. Very festive visuals. High fives all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Just now, WinterWolf said: Yes, that’s been dancing around in that time frame for quite a while now….something’s there…modeling trying to resolve what it may be. It goes right into the first week of December too, The pattern is pretty favorable with cold air around for anything that pops should be wintry in that period just looking briefly over some of the guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You and Runway enjoy! Will be west of here closer to the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 11-29/30 is kind of back so far at 12z gfs isn’t as strong with the high and cold as it was yesterday; results in a mixed bag for many. CMC presses pretty hard and it gets punted east. Beaches would get some snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 11-29/30 is kind of back so far at 12z gfs isn’t as strong with the high and cold as it was yesterday; results in a mixed bag for many. CMC presses pretty hard and it gets punted east. Beaches would get some snow Good place to be at this juncture imo….keep it hanging around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 the thing on the 2nd is still kinda there which a date many have been watching. Deep trough for november standards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: the thing on the 2nd is still kinda there which a date many have been watching. Deep trough for november standards Some bullets in the chamber…can we connect with something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 The end of next week looks like just one of those FROPA's with a developing wave of low pressure. Two things about these setups: 1. The snow maps go absolutely bonkers with these and always spit out some "historic totals". 2. These setups almost never work for us (except farther north). With that said, like was mentioned yesterday by Will and a few others, gotta watch that PV lobe...if we can get some PV/confluence to suppress the boundary then it may work out. An overlooked aspect of these setups too can be the influences of convection across the South which can rob moisture but at least right now, this may not be something to worry about...don't see much of a signal for strong convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 0.06 not exactly a drought buster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 looks like mount wachusett wasted a lot of money making snow last week.. melting fast now https://www.wachusett.com/the-mountain/media-center/webcams/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Although it's early in the year, next week's setup is a good one, as there is a potent ridge over AK that's reaching all the way into Siberia, promoting cross polar flow. Perhaps most notably, there is a developing Greenland block that forces a 50/50 ULL (ULL over Nova Scotia, basically). As a vort gets ejected from the Rockies, the confluence from the 50/50 ULL may push colder, drier air into the flow and can prevent the main energy from shooting north. This is more of an overrunning to coastal or SWFE type event rather than a potent Nor'easter, to be clear. This is a favorable setup for snowfall, even down to the Mason-Dixon line. If it was late Dec instead of late Nov, I would be more open to workable coastal snowfall, though that is a difficult ask given how warm waters are. The main points of contention are: 1) how quickly does the vort get ejected? 2) how much of the vort gets ejected? and 3) how strong is the confluence? I would argue that the confluence is the most important part of the setup... if it vanishes, there is not enough press from the cold air and the setup is DOA. However, if the vort comes out too early, it won't matter. This is unlikely, though... if anything, the vort would come out of the Rockies too late or too sheared rather than before confluence forms. How the 50/50 ULL trends is crucial to this setup and I will be watching that closely. These cross polar flow patterns are pretty much the only ones cold enough to allow for snow at this time of year, and there is very high confidence in one developing. We are still at the range where the vort can get sheared to nothing, so the storm can still "disappear." Just don't write the threat off due to the time of year. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Pouring in Simsbury the last hour, over a half inch now easy Quote 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Although it's early in the year, next week's setup is a good one, as there is a potent ridge over AK that's reaching all the way into Siberia, promoting cross polar flow. Perhaps most notably, there is a developing Greenland block that forces a 50/50 ULL (ULL over Nova Scotia, basically). As a vort gets ejected from the Rockies, the confluence from the 50/50 ULL may push colder, drier air into the flow and can prevent the main energy from shooting north. This is more of an overrunning to coastal or SWFE type event rather than a potent Nor'easter, to be clear. This is a favorable setup for snowfall, even down to the Mason-Dixon line. If it was late Dec instead of late Nov, I would be more open to workable coastal snowfall, though that is a difficult ask given how warm waters are. The main points of contention are: 1) how quickly does the vort get ejected? 2) how much of the vort gets ejected? and 3) how strong is the confluence? I would argue that the confluence is the most important part of the setup... if it vanishes, there is not enough press from the cold air and the setup is DOA. However, if the vort comes out too early, it won't matter. This is unlikely, though... if anything, the vort would come out of the Rockies too late or too sheared rather than before confluence forms. How the 50/50 ULL trends is crucial to this setup and I will be watching that closely. These cross polar flow patterns are pretty much the only ones cold enough to allow for snow at this time of year, and there is very high confidence in one developing. We are still at the range where the vort can get sheared to nothing, so the storm can still "disappear." Just don't write the threat off due to the time of year. Great stuff. And for the bolded, also another concern in these setups. At least right now though, the jet doesn't look overly powerful (like we've seen with some of these setups in the past). In fact, if you look at the structure of the jet stream and jet streak...there would be a window for some brief cyclogenesis within the Northeast (or upper-Mid Atlantic) which could be enhanced by strong thermal gradient along coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Some bullets in the chamber…can we connect with something? Maybe? Sorta? Who knows? Optimism?? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 .6 so far. Hoping to see a few flakes in the next 24. Maybe it will be snowing in Greenwich, but raining in Torrington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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