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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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42 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

cold run of the GFS past D10 to start December .. would be quite a change from recent years 

The greatest negative departures here since Feb 2023 were Dec 6-8 last year (-13/-19/-14.  That said, I had to go back to 12/2018 to find more early Dec cold.

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27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe we can combine all those periods the "EPS looked good" from last year, the winter before, and the winter before that with the upcoming "EPS looks good" period to produce one of the most prolific stretches ever. 

not saying that this is the year (it probably isn't), but with CC, you're going to get more crap winters than normal. however, when you do get a good winter, it's probably going to break records in places. you just have more moisture to work with. 2013-14 or 2014-15 with more oomph can cancel out the last 3-5 years of boredom

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not saying that this is the year (it probably isn't), but with CC, you're going to get more crap winters than normal. however, when you do get a good winter, it's probably going to break records in places. you just have more moisture to work with. 2013-14 or 2014-15 with more oomph can cancel out the last 3-5 years of boredom

Agreed on all that.

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2 hours ago, tamarack said:

The greatest negative departures here since Feb 2023 were Dec 6-8 last year (-13/-19/-14.  That said, I had to go back to 12/2018 to find more early Dec cold.

Interesting, seems like the cold was centered more towards NNE .. ORH put up departures of -3.8 / -9.5 / -3.2 for that stretch 

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not saying that this is the year (it probably isn't), but with CC, you're going to get more crap winters than normal. however, when you do get a good winter, it's probably going to break records in places. you just have more moisture to work with. 2013-14 or 2014-15 with more oomph can cancel out the last 3-5 years of boredom

There were plenty of suck ass winters 40 years ago too…just saying. 

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3 hours ago, ma blizzard said:

cold run of the GFS past D10 to start December .. would be quite a change from recent years 

December on the whole has featured so little cold and snow here over the last 15 years. It’s really not even a winter month anymore in this area.

Boxing day (which was very late Dec) and the mixed bag storm in Dec 2020 before Christmas are pretty much it here for memorable events in the last decade and a half.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not saying that this is the year (it probably isn't), but with CC, you're going to get more crap winters than normal. however, when you do get a good winter, it's probably going to break records in places. you just have more moisture to work with. 2013-14 or 2014-15 with more oomph can cancel out the last 3-5 years of boredom

That's my take as well. Hope it pans out

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43 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

really good agreement on all ensembles for a -EPO/-WPO pattern to form with cross polar flow. want to see this get inside the D5-7 range, though it is encouraging

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-3227200.thumb.png.af407cad323de14f39d0146db36baa0e.png

 

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe we can combine all those periods the "EPS looked good" from last year, the winter before, and the winter before that with the upcoming "EPS looks good" period to produce one of the most prolific stretches ever. 

Wiz says the blues are really reds. The lines are inverted. Torch coming. :lol: 

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12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

December on the whole has featured so little cold and snow here over the last 15 years. It’s really not even a winter month anymore in this area.

Boxing day (which was very late Dec) and the mixed bag storm in Dec 2020 before Christmas are pretty much it here for memorable events in the last decade and a half.

Gee… I can remember a couple of December snow storms of late. 12/3/19, 12/17/20  were  pretty nice ones here. 

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