Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[dryslot]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m about 55 . It’s been brutal 

No coastal storms so far this fall.

[dryslot]

Hopefully the one this week is a start for more coastal's going forward or...............

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

No coastal storms so far this fall.

In all my years .. never have seen anything quite like this. The worry is it continues thru the winter in a general sense. If you analog the years and the ensuing winters.. they don’t end well for snow 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In all my years .. never have seen anything quite like this. The worry is it continues thru the winter in a general sense. If you analog the years and the ensuing winters.. they don’t end well for snow 

Yeah, That won't be good, We need the coastal systems or SWFE to get snow here.

[weatherwiz]

Wow didn't realize how similar the NAM/Euro are in terms of how the entire system evolves...does the old NAM/Euro rule still exist  

Alot will probably depend on how quickly and where occlusion occurs. GFS is much quicker in this regard. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wow didn't realize how similar the NAM/Euro are in terms of how the entire system evolves...does the old NAM/Euro rule still exist  

Alot will probably depend on how quickly and where occlusion occurs. GFS is much quicker in this regard. 

The euro-nam rule died in late January of 2015, lol.  I think this system is a great test of euro AI.  AI has a discreet low center further south than the others....

[Go Kart Mozart]

Meanwhile, the 18z gfs has a wintry look to say the least.

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks pretty darn good to start December. I know Will and Tip talked about it, but the Pacific is good overall. Still a SE ridge risk with the EPO, but I can’t complain about that look

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks pretty darn good to start December. I know Will and Tip talked about it, but the Pacific is good overall. Still a SE ridge risk with the EPO, but I can’t complain about that look

I remember last winter it looked good too. Hopefully this is different 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I remember last winter it looked good too. Hopefully this is different 

WPO is different this time..didnt have that last winter…maybe that will make a difference this time? 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whoa!! That is Solid. 
1.74 here since Aug 20

Wxwatcher in East Hartford has .90 in that same timeframe 

Now that is next level dry over 3 months. Under 1” in 3 months… that can be had in 15 minutes in the convective dews of summer.

Really hard to see that in New England’s climate and proximity to a moisture source like the Atlantic.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Now that is next level dry over 3 months. Under 1” in 3 months… that can be had in 15 minutes in the convective dews of summer.

Really hard to see that in New England’s climate and proximity to a moisture source like the Atlantic.

It’s literally been a 3 month spell like you’d see in the west . Not something I’d ever expect or thought we’d see. Especially coming off such a wet early to mid summer. In a humid climate. It usually finds a way to rain. But SNE just turned into La Jolla almost overnight 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Winds of change are in the offing.

 

[FXWX]

57 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The euro-nam rule died in late January of 2015, lol.  I think this system is a great test of euro AI.  AI has a discreet low center further south than the others....

Nope to test of AI... Like all other model schemes, they win 1 battle but lose the war...  The Euro AI has missed far forecasts than it hits.  If it were to hit this forecast, it would mean little to using it for future events.  

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Nope to test of AI... Like all other model schemes, they win 1 battle but lose the war...  The Euro AI has missed far forecasts than it hits.  If it were to hit this forecast, it would mean little to using it for future events.  

Great point.

I think weather models take on a superstar status when they hit (or appear to hit) on a tracked event.  It is still fun to see which one is closest when it matters… but you’re right, it doesn’t mean anything statistically for future results.

[MJO812]

Just bought a subscription for Pivotal Weather .

 

It's only 9.99 a month  and just as fast as Stormvista.

[WxWatcher007]

6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whoa!! That is Solid. 
1.74 here since Aug 20

Wxwatcher in East Hartford has .90 in that same timeframe 

 

6 hours ago, dryslot said:

That's awful actually for being in the coastal plain.

 

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Now that is next level dry over 3 months. Under 1” in 3 months… that can be had in 15 minutes in the convective dews of summer.

Really hard to see that in New England’s climate and proximity to a moisture source like the Atlantic.

It has been insane. I actually checked my VP2 to make sure the system was working properly.  

I haven’t needed to mow in a very long time, and leaf pickup has been the easiest it’ll probably ever get.

[kdxken]

Whatever Google weather uses for models must be coming in higher with rainfall. Up to an inch and a quarter for the total.

[dendrite]

Goofus with the d9 white Thanksgiving up here. 

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Whatever Google weather uses for models must be coming in higher with rainfall. Up to an inch and a quarter for the total.

Let’s see how this shakes out, seeing .50-.75” here; a little skeptical that it’s going to be a little less than .50” which is good, we need it but will only dampen the very top layer and will be wind blown dry this weekend.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Let’s see how this shakes out, seeing .50-.75” here; a little skeptical that it’s going to be a little less than .50” which is good, we need it but will only dampen the very top layer and will be wind blown dry this weekend.

Gotta start somewhere though. Something is better than nothing. It’ll be a good drink I think. 

[Cold Miser]

Snowblower still getting fixed and tuned up.  Probably won't need it again this year, but, just in case I get a rogue high output snowstorm (High output for my area is 8"-10") it will be ready. 

[greenmtnwx]

Take me, to the magic of the moment
On a glory night…….

[jbenedet]

We are tracking to have least amount of pack on the ground by December 1st in our overall region; combining Ontario, NB and the northeast US.
 

I know it’s mostly due to dry conditions, in the colder locations in Northern Maine and Canada…but it’s something important to note as we head into met winter. 
 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

10 hours ago, FXWX said:

Nope to test of AI... Like all other model schemes, they win 1 battle but lose the war...  The Euro AI has missed far forecasts than it hits.  If it were to hit this forecast, it would mean little to using it for future events.  

Yup to test of AI.  I said it is a test, not the test.  If it is right, we keep an eye on it for future EC cyclogenesis events...we don't stop running the hydrostatic models.

[Ski Patroller]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whoa!! That is Solid. 
1.74 here since Aug 20

Wxwatcher in East Hartford has .90 in that same timeframe 

 

0.93" in Colebrook for the period. Wicked.

I've been writing conservation easements in New England for over 30 years. We never considered landscape-scale fire issues in the contingencies.  We were taught in forestry school that droughts like this happened here on 600-1200-year cycles.

I just finished drafting the first fire contingency language for a conservation easement project yesterday, allowing 150' of tree clearing from structures, the building of firebreaks, permitted motorized use in firefighting, and allowing fire-control access to water features. Essentially, the California model except we don't allow salvage logging beyond hazard trees. Crazy stuff.

[weatherwiz]

Maybe not bad after all for the Greens Thursday night into Friday morning

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe not bad after all for the Greens Thursday night into Friday morning

6z EPS looks fun for here.. but who knows stormvista maps probably overdone 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

6z EPS looks fun for here.. but who knows stormvista maps probably overdone 

Within our region, I don't think anyone sees any snow outside of the Greens and maybe parts of the Berkshires. This is where the most intense lifting would likely be.  But I wouldn't be surprised if some flakes/graupel on Friday...in fact I bet many see at least some sort of frozen precip mixture.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Within our region, I don't think anyone sees any snow outside of the Greens and maybe parts of the Berkshires. This is where the most intense lifting would likely be.  But I wouldn't be surprised if some flakes/graupel on Friday...in fact I bet many see at least some sort of frozen precip mixture.

most of it on the EPS comes Friday night with that second batch.. I guess we'll see and who knows if it even happens or where it will even end up