Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[mreaves]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that looks like ray was leaf burnin and it got away from him

Maybe he's burning all of his past winter forecasts as an offering to Ullr?

[SnowGoose69]

That was like a weenie generated run.  Add in the 1989 like cold shot that is coming down at 360 from NW Canada to the 2 storms 

[WinterWolf]

Winds of change are in the offing.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Winds of change are in the offing.

Likely not at all 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ULL continues the trend north so we say goodbye to first flake chances. Boredom continues 

That’s really not what’s important…the significant rain that is coming is the important part. We take.  

[dryslot]

Dry as a prairie bible here since September, Need some rain this week, 1" or so will be a start.

[NorEastermass128]

I’m just looking forward to Thursday’s soaker. Running in heavy smoke is no bueno. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Likely not at all 

Oh yes…there’s change. You’ll see. It starts Thursday with some good rain. You’ll come around to the reality. 

[Snowedin]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Just another day of 60+

We take and bake. Any warm ups are massively appreciated during these cruelly short days. Totally looking forward to a solid soaking around here Thursday as it’s getting a little disturbing seeing literal clouds of dust flying around the backs of peoples mowers in this part of the country.

[brooklynwx99]

in terms of what we might be able to expect going forward, the Pacific jet is obviously of great importance. it seems like we're going to see a rather potent jet, though one that's still closer to Japan. it also remains equatorward, which is important

when looking at more favorable winters like 2010, 2013, and 2020, there is a solid signal for a more potent jet (2/3 years are equatorward), and most importantly, there is ample wave breaking out ahead of the jet streak. this is for around a 10 day period from the end of Nov into the first week of Dec

when looking at the less favorable years like 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2007, the jet extends much too far, is more poleward, and there is much less wave breaking as a result

therefore, it's important to see how the jet behaves over the next 10 days or so. the more equatorward presentation of the jet is partly why we're seeing troughing set up so much near HI... if it was poleward, those troughs would be pushing into the ridge or even allowing those troughs to move closer to the GoAK

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Still going in New England

How we pray. Could use it after this dumpster fire of a year 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Dry as a prairie bible here since September, Need some rain this week, 1" or so will be a start.

Hoe much rain have you had in that span? Or since Aug 20?

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How small is your weenie? Because I bet mine is even smaller since Aug 20.

Probably true.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh yes…there’s change. You’ll see. It starts Thursday with some good rain. You’ll come around to the reality. 

If CT gets . 50 that will be a win considering most of us are under 1.75” total since Aug 20. Until it measures in your gauge it hasn’t happened 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Probably true.

Enjoy the snow and rain . And be glad you live in a drought proof area 

[ORH_wxman]

46 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That was like a weenie generated run.  Add in the 1989 like cold shot that is coming down at 360 from NW Canada to the 2 storms 

EPO and especially WPO are looking a lot better than recent years. We’ll see if that can maintain. @Typhoon Tip and I mentioned it a few times already and we talked about it last winter too. WPO has been kind of a turd in the punchbowl recently (it has even muted some of the recent -EPO bursts) and there’s a pretty strong signal it will be more favorable to start this cold season. That doesn’t guarantee us great results but it does mean we won’t underperform the cold dumps into Canada so when things do try to move SE, they are coming from a potent source region. It’s loading the dice a bit better for us than previously. 
 

 

[powderfreak]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Enjoy the snow and rain . And be glad you live in a drought proof area 

You’re getting some rain with this next one.  Not going to be a multi-inch drought buster but should soak in.

Given these two 18z progs, I assume we know which one you believe of the GFS or Euro.

NAM is decent soak too.

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If CT gets . 50 that will be a win considering most of us are under 1.75” total since Aug 20. Until it measures in your gauge it hasn’t happened 

Those of us west will probably do better than .50.  But the point is it’s a change. And there will be more changes coming after that.  The time for persistence is drawing to an end. Better hop on board or be left behind. 

[dryslot]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hoe much rain have you had in that span? Or since Aug 20?

Sept-Nov, 3.46"

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You’re getting some rain with this next one.  Not going to be a multi-inch drought buster but should soak in.

Given these two 18z progs, I assume we know which one you believe of the GFS or Euro.

NAM is decent soak too.

Gonna be a good drink. That’s the take away. First one here in 3 months.  Here’s Tolland on Thursday morning below. 

[cardinalland]

Decided to have some fun with data and correlated CT snowfalls in December with temperatures around the world for the last 44 years. It's CT but that maps well to SNE at least. The first map only has statistically significant correlations and the second shows all. I guess a cold Plains, Midwest, or northern US corresponds with higher snowfall around here. I probably didn't need to run the numbers to figure that out but here it is anyway.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sept-Nov, 3.46"

Whoa!! That is Solid. 
1.74 here since Aug 20

Wxwatcher in East Hartford has .90 in that same timeframe 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You’re getting some rain with this next one.  Not going to be a multi-inch drought buster but should soak in.

Given these two 18z progs, I assume we know which one you believe of the GFS or Euro.

NAM is decent soak too.

I’m not buying in on any one model. It is going to rain . We’ll see how much . I know which way we lean though ! https://x.com/trumpwarroom/status/1858267401533714552?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[dryslot]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Whoa!! That is Solid. 
1.74 here since Aug 20

Wxwatcher in East Hartford has .90 in that same timeframe 

That's awful actually for being in the coastal plain.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not buying in on any one model. It is going to rain . We’ll see how much . I know which way we lean though ! https://x.com/trumpwarroom/status/1858267401533714552?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Take a blend, and it’s still A good drink. And We all need it. 

[cardinalland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Take a blend, and it’s still A good drink. And We all need it. 

i will definitely be standing on the porch watching the rain fall and saying "we needed this"

[weatherwiz]

NAM solution is probably best solution to give a widespread soaking rain for several hours. That's some pretty intense frontogenesis and WAA and convective precip...that's what we want. GFS makes me a little nervous about heavy rain on a widespread or larger scale.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's awful actually for being in the coastal plain.

How close are you to the coast?

[dryslot]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

How close are you to the coast?

20 miles

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dryslot said:

20 miles

I’m about 55 . It’s been brutal