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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t you worry, if the trend continues he’ll be on board like a dog on a weenie.  It’s All part of the game/act. 

0z Euro has a little bit of snow here now.. all the 0z models have trended better but still so far out

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z Euro would be nice for the interior

The best mid level height falls are already progged over the mid Atlantic.

The -NAO will be significant enough to send the whole anomaly south of NNE. So it wouldn't surprise me to see the interesting wintry weather more over elevations of PA, West Virginia and NJ, while near normal mid level heights are over northern NNE. 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The best mid level height falls are already progged over the mid Atlantic.

The -NAO will be significant enough to send the whole anomaly south of NNE. So it wouldn't surprise me to see the interesting wintry weather more over elevations of PA, West Virginia and NJ, while near normal mid level heights are over northern NNE. 

 

 

yup ...the upside-down low scenario.   this is typically - I'd just caution a little - for models to do that complexion when dealing with marginality at the d5+ time range.  

it may be that we start to see some cyclonic domain cooling as the time approaches and the dynamic orientation ( physical feedbacks ...) become more coherent to the model processing. 

as an aside,  whatever happens, this looks to me like a more classic autumn season turner nor'easter - not so much for cold +/-, but heralds in the 'storm season'.   this was like this in the climate of old.  it's only been recently that our autumns have been weird.   anyway... nice to see that nostalgia there. 

i may thread this later ... the signal toward a nor'easter and potentially important one is gained a little here.  i mentioned last week that the actual telecon geography for this sort of western limbed -nao, is actually between the del marva and s of ns, so the previous pa with low stacking over water town was not impossible, just not as well correlated.   perhaps we are seeing the correction vector exerting here. 

i'm also a curious about a possible flat wave winter -like threat around the 27th give or take - so after this one.

 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

The folks a couple hundred years from now will read about the Octobomb from 2011, and say look…winter started before Halloween for the folks of the early 21st century. :lol::sled:

Then they’ll wonder why it never snowed again that whole winter lol.

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