weatherwiz Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 One thing I really hate seeing is we've seen a constant barrage of systems closing off and occluding across the Ohio Valley region...this has been a transition season theme for the better part of the last few years (more like 3-4). It doesn't seem to matter what the ENSO phase/strength is or what is going on in the Arctic, the regime favors closing off/occluded systems in the Ohio Valley. I think this goes way beyond Arctic/N PAC domain and what is going on with NAO/AO/PNA, etc. One thing I wished you more of out there is research that didn't center on using physics and calculus to prove what is going on. I mean don't get me wrong, that component is critical, especially when it comes to modeling but I feel like alot of ideologies we have which center on how ENSO and teleconnections factor have not evolved much as these databases grow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: One thing I really hate seeing is we've seen a constant barrage of systems closing off and occluding across the Ohio Valley region...this has been a transition season theme for the better part of the last few years (more like 3-4). It doesn't seem to matter what the ENSO phase/strength is or what is going on in the Arctic, the regime favors closing off/occluded systems in the Ohio Valley. I think this goes way beyond Arctic/N PAC domain and what is going on with NAO/AO/PNA, etc. One thing I wished you more of out there is research that didn't center on using physics and calculus to prove what is going on. I mean don't get me wrong, that component is critical, especially when it comes to modeling but I feel like alot of ideologies we have which center on how ENSO and teleconnections factor have not evolved much as these databases grow. fwiw - the ggem is east. just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z EPS mean is .75 to 1.00 inch for most of SNE just hoping for some rain This will morph into a fropa with showers like this past Sunday night. Already moving that direction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This will morph into a fropa with showers like this past Sunday night. Already moving that direction . I'm really hope you are wrong. Something has to give. We need the precip real bad! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 It gonna snow in NNE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm really hope you are wrong. Something has to give. We need the precip real bad! Too much ridging in the East offshore and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Too much ridging in the East offshore and north Totally Totally different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally Totally different setup. are you aboard tip's pattern change/reshuffle train going into thanksgiving week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: fwiw - the ggem is east. just sayn' end of week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally Totally different setup. Not really 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It gonna snow in NNE Probably cold enough to. Just a matter of making sure things aren’t squashed from the -SAO. Stein Arctic Oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It gonna snow in NNE Could be EPOhno like Euro has and a Torchgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 15 Author Share Posted November 15 36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: end of week? Boundary is warm, but it would be a Stein-buster! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: end of week? yeah and who knows. but it's e of the others. i'd also note that the others are trending east - just not as aggressively. ex, the ggem was over michigan wednesday's 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 that thing goes from ~ 990 mb to 960 mb in 10 hours lol challenges believability a little but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah and who knows. but it's e of the others. i'd also note that the others are trending east - just not as aggressively. ex, the ggem was over michigan wednesday's 12z The upper evolution is interesting, that's for sure. I just question whether we have enough to yield a widespread synoptic rain. There undoubtedly would be a great deal of upward vertical motion but we may be lacking one key ingredient...and that's moisture to really lift. The greatest combo of lift/moisture would be on the leading edge of the dry slot with the cold front where you have also a narrow wedge of instability. We'll see what happens though, I would not be shocked if we see an entirely different presentation come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 1 hour ago, bwt3650 said: are you aboard tip's pattern change/reshuffle train going into thanksgiving week? Somethings happening here what it is ain't exactly clear 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 12 z Euro starnet has a 522 going underneath us. You know the rules if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 15 Author Share Posted November 15 37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Somethings happening here what it is ain't exactly clear There's a man with a torch over there, telling me I gotta stand clear We gotta stop children, what's that sound? It ain't snowflakes hittin the ground... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Don’t do it. Do not buy the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: 12 z Euro starnet has a 522 going underneath us. You know the rules if correct A colder rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Give me that look in 6 weeks please. Which will also probably be rain… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don’t do it. Do not buy the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Could be EPOhno like Euro has and a Torchgiving Go warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 And sell the soaking rainer. Each day will turn more into a fropa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And sell the soaking rainer. Each day will turn more into a fropa I feel like models could show 3-6” of water just 24 hours out and you’d still be chained in Stein’s shed… “it’ll fall apart in the next 12 hours”… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I feel like models could show 3-6” of water just 24 hours out and you’d still be chained in Stein’s shed… “it’ll fall apart in the next 12 hours”… persistence forecasting...you're a genius til you're not. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I feel like models could show 3-6” of water just 24 hours out and you’d still be chained in Stein’s shed… “it’ll fall apart in the next 12 hours”… We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 16 Share Posted November 16 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t tomorrow could be a big fire day .RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * AFFECTED AREA...All of southern New England. * TIMING...Until 6 PM EST Saturday. * WINDS...Northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph later Saturday morning into the afternoon. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...Minimum Saturday afternoon relative humidities will be between 15 and 25 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16 Share Posted November 16 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ve seen this story for the last 3 months. Modeled rains turning into nothing in SNE. Until it happens , it won’t At some point it’s going to happen…the bigger question is, will you know which time is the real deal? That would be much more impressive than just persistence. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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