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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY
HIPPYVALLEY

My friend’s parents barn burned down in the Buckland brushfire this evening.  

dendrite
dendrite

Initialized by Ann Selzer

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

Well I guess we've arrived to the point in the season where 1. The first "winter" threat is around Thanksgiving. Then when that doesn't happen... 2. EPS shows big pattern change coming aroun

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I will say last night had one interesting feature. We were blowing all evening from NNE and my temp hovered around 41.7. Eventually temps away from the water got cold enough so that the typical thermal balance between warm and cold started backing towards the water. Wind was more N to NNW this morning and dropped temps quite a bit after midnight. Sometimes you see that this time of year.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It will Be BN for a few days but a torch month is a lock. Top tier torch too.

Currently running +4.2 here, which would be 5th mildest of 27 should November finish there - top quartile.  After today the departure will be close to +3.6, for 7th mildest.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The next 2-3 weeks will be key because if the late November into December favorable stretch doesn't get muted or attenuated, then we are probably in business for the season. If you recall last season the favorable December flip got totally stripped down to just a bried NAO flex, which got laregely negated by the monster trough out west.

agreed .. i mentioned the same yesterday

 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a fail on that tropical. 

Who would have that the area of convection in the far southwest Caribbean would become the main player lol. 

But I'm not so sure we can really call this one a fail, obviously with no low-level circulation [until yesterday afternoon] guidance is going to really struggle. If that main circulation formed around Jamaica/Cuba (like south of Cuba) where that initial burst of convection occurred, this would be a much different story for Florida, IMO. 

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tamarack

tamarack

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The whole tropical season is a massive and utter fail.  

Depends on how it's measured. 
By numbers of TCs/canes/majors, which came in below the forecast.
By impact, any season with a Helene and a Milton is high-end. 
(Reminds me of 1992, when the first named storm didn't come until August and the numbers were way low, but that #1 was Andrew.)

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

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14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The whole tropical season is a massive and utter fail.  

Top 10 in hurricanes. 

Top 20 in MH (tied with several 5 MH seasons).

Just outside top 20 in ACE (it’s right outside of hyperactive right now).

Earliest cat 5 on record.

Strongest Gulf hurricane in since Rita. First sub 900mb hurricane since Wilma. In October. 

After a historically dead period late August - mid September, the most active period on record since.

1 off tying the record for most CONUS H landfalls in a season.

Helene.

 

It’s not 2005, but it has been anything but a fail.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Top 10 in hurricanes. 

Top 20 in MH (tied with several 5 MH seasons).

Just outside top 20 in ACE (it’s right outside of hyperactive right now).

Earliest cat 5 on record.

Strongest Gulf hurricane in since Rita. First sub 900mb hurricane since Wilma. In October. 

After a historically dead period late August - mid September, the most active period on record since.

1 off tying the record for most CONUS H landfalls in a season.

Helene.

 

It’s not 2005, but it has been anything but a fail.

Looked great at H5.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Top 10 in hurricanes. 

Top 20 in MH (tied with several 5 MH seasons).

Just outside top 20 in ACE (it’s right outside of hyperactive right now).

Earliest cat 5 on record.

Strongest Gulf hurricane in since Rita. First sub 900mb hurricane since Wilma. In October. 

After a historically dead period late August - mid September, the most active period on record since.

1 off tying the record for most CONUS H landfalls in a season.

Helene.

 

It’s not 2005, but it has been anything but a fail.

But it was supposed to be a 2005, or 1995, and it wasn’t. You realize I wasn’t talking impact.  One or two storms can make a season seem incredible..we realize that. I’m talking forecast alone. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looked great at H5.

:lol: there’s been a lot of that in recent years across wx types.

In all seriousness, I think the tropical season reached ~80% of potential. That historically dead period peak season was insane but I think the late September run through now has been equally anomalous. 

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But it was supposed to be a 2005, or 1995, and it wasn’t. You realize I wasn’t talking impact.  One or two storms can make a season seem incredible..we realize that. I’m talking forecast alone. 

Anytime anyone says the GOAT (insert storm or season) is coming, run the other way. I did think a top ten type season of H and MH was coming and while it took until November, I think that turned out to be right. 
 

On 5/23/2024 at 11:03 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

You’re right about a lot needing to go right for 20+. I think the trend the last few years and the extraordinary base state of the basin this season would have me shocked if it didn’t happen. Of course, we know a fair number of NS end up debatable anyway.

It’s the H and MH numbers for me. The key question IMO is whether an active WAM causes a feedback of strong SAL bursts that reduce instability in the tropical Atlantic. If not, I think we threaten records. Even if it does, I’d be surprised if this isn’t a top 10 season for activity. 

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Who would have that the area of convection in the far southwest Caribbean would become the main player lol. 

But I'm not so sure we can really call this one a fail, obviously with no low-level circulation [until yesterday afternoon] guidance is going to really struggle. If that main circulation formed around Jamaica/Cuba (like south of Cuba) where that initial burst of convection occurred, this would be a much different story for Florida, IMO. 

It's a fail.

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I expected more named storms this season. But we did have some good quality ones. I'm giving a few an * since we seemed to have lost some methods of getting good data on lower level winds. 

I did too, but it ended up a quality over quantity season. The SFMR thing was just weird. I wonder if they decided that after missing that Ian was a 5 right before landfall. 

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