CoastalWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: A to a B cup. Tonight is A to a C. Veins and stretchmarks visible? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Tonight will probably be an ern MA radiator special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 I will say last night had one interesting feature. We were blowing all evening from NNE and my temp hovered around 41.7. Eventually temps away from the water got cold enough so that the typical thermal balance between warm and cold started backing towards the water. Wind was more N to NNW this morning and dropped temps quite a bit after midnight. Sometimes you see that this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 14 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It will Be BN for a few days but a torch month is a lock. Top tier torch too. Currently running +4.2 here, which would be 5th mildest of 27 should November finish there - top quartile. After today the departure will be close to +3.6, for 7th mildest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stein is all in!https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1857017394176082201?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 That should be our avatar for all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That should be our avatar for all. They love him in Dearborn 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: They love him in Dearborn Did Lisa start a grassroots effort there for Stein? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The next 2-3 weeks will be key because if the late November into December favorable stretch doesn't get muted or attenuated, then we are probably in business for the season. If you recall last season the favorable December flip got totally stripped down to just a bried NAO flex, which got laregely negated by the monster trough out west. agreed .. i mentioned the same yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Just hit 45⁰ off a low of 17.8⁰....doesn't feel too bad with the sun and light winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 What a fail on that tropical. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a fail on that tropical. The whole tropical season is a massive and utter fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a fail on that tropical. Who would have that the area of convection in the far southwest Caribbean would become the main player lol. But I'm not so sure we can really call this one a fail, obviously with no low-level circulation [until yesterday afternoon] guidance is going to really struggle. If that main circulation formed around Jamaica/Cuba (like south of Cuba) where that initial burst of convection occurred, this would be a much different story for Florida, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 whole NWS must be having some major issues today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: whole NWS must be having some major issues today Biden is moving them to Accuweather so there can be a smooth, seamless transition. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The whole tropical season is a massive and utter fail. Depends on how it's measured. By numbers of TCs/canes/majors, which came in below the forecast. By impact, any season with a Helene and a Milton is high-end. (Reminds me of 1992, when the first named storm didn't come until August and the numbers were way low, but that #1 was Andrew.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The whole tropical season is a massive and utter fail. Top 10 in hurricanes. Top 20 in MH (tied with several 5 MH seasons). Just outside top 20 in ACE (it’s right outside of hyperactive right now). Earliest cat 5 on record. Strongest Gulf hurricane in since Rita. First sub 900mb hurricane since Wilma. In October. After a historically dead period late August - mid September, the most active period on record since. 1 off tying the record for most CONUS H landfalls in a season. Helene. It’s not 2005, but it has been anything but a fail. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 1 hour ago, dendrite said: They love him in Dearborn Hometown of Derek Lowe!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Top 10 in hurricanes. Top 20 in MH (tied with several 5 MH seasons). Just outside top 20 in ACE (it’s right outside of hyperactive right now). Earliest cat 5 on record. Strongest Gulf hurricane in since Rita. First sub 900mb hurricane since Wilma. In October. After a historically dead period late August - mid September, the most active period on record since. 1 off tying the record for most CONUS H landfalls in a season. Helene. It’s not 2005, but it has been anything but a fail. Looked great at H5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a fail on that tropical. "More days in first place".... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Top 10 in hurricanes. Top 20 in MH (tied with several 5 MH seasons). Just outside top 20 in ACE (it’s right outside of hyperactive right now). Earliest cat 5 on record. Strongest Gulf hurricane in since Rita. First sub 900mb hurricane since Wilma. In October. After a historically dead period late August - mid September, the most active period on record since. 1 off tying the record for most CONUS H landfalls in a season. Helene. It’s not 2005, but it has been anything but a fail. But it was supposed to be a 2005, or 1995, and it wasn’t. You realize I wasn’t talking impact. One or two storms can make a season seem incredible..we realize that. I’m talking forecast alone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The whole tropical season is a massive and utter fail. I dunno... decent number of named storms, decent number of hits, a couple of massive ones in terms of damage. I think the season has hit the NHC forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 14 Author Share Posted November 14 32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just outside top 20 in ACE (it’s right outside of hyperactive right now). Is this global ACE or Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looked great at H5. there’s been a lot of that in recent years across wx types. In all seriousness, I think the tropical season reached ~80% of potential. That historically dead period peak season was insane but I think the late September run through now has been equally anomalous. 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But it was supposed to be a 2005, or 1995, and it wasn’t. You realize I wasn’t talking impact. One or two storms can make a season seem incredible..we realize that. I’m talking forecast alone. Anytime anyone says the GOAT (insert storm or season) is coming, run the other way. I did think a top ten type season of H and MH was coming and while it took until November, I think that turned out to be right. On 5/23/2024 at 11:03 PM, WxWatcher007 said: You’re right about a lot needing to go right for 20+. I think the trend the last few years and the extraordinary base state of the basin this season would have me shocked if it didn’t happen. Of course, we know a fair number of NS end up debatable anyway. It’s the H and MH numbers for me. The key question IMO is whether an active WAM causes a feedback of strong SAL bursts that reduce instability in the tropical Atlantic. If not, I think we threaten records. Even if it does, I’d be surprised if this isn’t a top 10 season for activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Is this global ACE or Atlantic? Atlantic. We can’t compete with the WPAC. They are at 186 ACE this season but average 273. That’s nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That should be our avatar for all. I don’t understand why Dendy won’t add it as an emoji here. Would be an all time favorite with many, many uses. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t understand why Dendy won’t add it as an emoji here. Would be an all time favorite with many, many uses. Too many emojis. It takes like an hour to find the right one at the bottom. Pretty soon the length will span the width of the monitor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Who would have that the area of convection in the far southwest Caribbean would become the main player lol. But I'm not so sure we can really call this one a fail, obviously with no low-level circulation [until yesterday afternoon] guidance is going to really struggle. If that main circulation formed around Jamaica/Cuba (like south of Cuba) where that initial burst of convection occurred, this would be a much different story for Florida, IMO. It's a fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 I expected more named storms this season. But we did have some good quality ones. I'm giving a few an * since we seemed to have lost some methods of getting good data on lower level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I expected more named storms this season. But we did have some good quality ones. I'm giving a few an * since we seemed to have lost some methods of getting good data on lower level winds. I did too, but it ended up a quality over quantity season. The SFMR thing was just weird. I wonder if they decided that after missing that Ian was a 5 right before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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