Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Damage In Tolland]

27.0 and dropping 

[CoastalWx]

33  breezy. Wind still off the water. Looks like that subsides tonight.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

27.0 and dropping 

Finally not fake. Looks like we really fake around here tonight.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Finally not fake. Looks like we really fake around here tonight.

This was the first cold air of the season . CAA and the hills get cold and it stays cold during the day. Tonight will be a faker. 
26.1 now 

[512high]

Overnight low 20....

[Ski Patroller]

22degF at the moment in Colebrook, Litchfield County, CT.

[Snowcrazed71]

26.3 in Plainville

Edit:

Make that 25.6

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein is all in!
https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1857017394176082201?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein is all in!
https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1857017394176082201?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

And a flaccid pattern as far as the eye can see. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 512high said:

Overnight low 20....

Wow..only 27.7 here...at 9:10pm, nonetheless....mixed out the rest of the night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Why don’t people scream and yell at me for my thoughts later in December? Oh that’s right, because I said it could be favorable and this place is loaded with weenies. No howling and growling there lol.
 

TBH I am nervous my forecast was too conservative. I'd rather that, though....two awful busts in a row that were to aggressive. I don't want to get the JB rep because its difficult to shake lol

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH I am nervous my forecast was too conservative. I'd rather that, though....two awful busts in a row that were to aggressive. I don't want to get the JB rep because its difficult to shake lol

I hope you bust on the lower side lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I hope you bust on the lower side lol.

Same. Last thing I wanted though is another 65" forecast that ends up 33" and Kev lighting up my threads with AIT. Honestly, though...can't always chase upside.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am pretty confident the N Pacific is going to be decent....what needs to be ironed out is whether or not its just a -WPO with no blocking and a +EPO, like 1999, or we also get the -EPO a la 2013 and/or some blocking mixed in. I hedged mainly -WPO with some blocking early and late, but if the -EPO is also consistently negative, then that is a the game-changer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The next 2-3 weeks will be key because if the late November into December favorable stretch doesn't get muted or attenuated, then we are probably in business for the season. If you recall last season the favorable December flip got totally stripped down to just a bried NAO flex, which got laregely negated by the monster trough out west.

[Modfan2]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein is all in!
https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1857017394176082201?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Forest burning from deep fried Turkeys, should be fun!

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am pretty confident the N Pacific is going to be decent....what needs to be ironed out is whether or not its just a -WPO with no blocking and a +EPO, like 1999, or we also get the -EPO a la 2013 and/or some blocking mixed in. I hedged mainly -WPO with some blocking early and late, but if the -EPO is also consistently negative, then that is a the game-changer.

I am also pretty confident we will see some blocking this year....the EPO is the big question for me.

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And a flaccid pattern as far as the eye can see. 

Just Limpies and Bizcuits 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Same. Last thing I wanted though is another 65" forecast that ends up 33" and Kev lighting up my threads with AIT. Honestly, though...can't always chase upside.

I’ve never done that. You put a lot of effort into it. I usually don’t agree with them but appreciate all the time you spend 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve never done that. You put a lot of effort into it. I usually don’t agree with them but appreciate all the time you spend 

I'm being facetious. But honestly...I don't care how much time is put in, you have to be mindful of trends with respect to bias and make changes to methodology when its not working out. This is why I have tried to incorporate climate change a lot more and address West Pacific aspects this season.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This was the first cold air of the season . CAA and the hills get cold and it stays cold during the day. Tonight will be a faker. 
26.1 now 

It was a faker this morning. MWN warmer than MHT. 

[dendrite]

21.5° here, but car thermo had 19°. CON 17°, BML 13°, Maple Hollow 9°. 

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This was the first cold air of the season . CAA and the hills get cold and it stays cold during the day. Tonight will be a faker. 
26.1 now 

There was WAA at 850mb. What are you talking about?

The inversion was just up higher than it normally is but it’s the same “fake” properties.

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It was a faker this morning. MWN warmer than MHT. 

Yeah this was radiational delight even up to 4,000ft.  Looks like the inversion was around 4,500ft.

[CoastalWx]

We still had a decent delivery at 925 here (albeit warming some) combined with nighttime cooling despite the inversion way up high. Not the super fake stuff where the top of my head is 15 degrees warmer than my feet.

[bwt3650]

As long as I can shovel fake snow, and watch the snow guns pile it up in fake cold, it can be as imaginary as it wants.


.

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We still had a decent delivery at 925 here (albeit warming some) combined with nighttime cooling despite the inversion way up high. Not the super fake stuff where the top of my head is 15 degrees warmer than my feet.

I guess in my mind it wasn’t just colder with height through the column.  Good rad night when MWN is warmest place around.

Just went from 20F to 34F at 2,600ft as the inversion broke.

[BrianW]

Anxiously awaiting today's drought update. 

 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I guess in my mind it wasn’t just colder with height through the column.  Good rad night when MWN is warmest place around.

Just went from 20F to 34F at 2,600ft as the inversion broke.

Less fake?

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Less fake?

A to a B cup. Tonight is A to a C.