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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

 

You can watch it go out to sea.

If this does go into Florida (which I think is a pretty good shot, its just a matter of whether its southern Florida or farther north along the coast) this will almost certainly become absorbed by the approaching trough and quickly get shunted east. Not a pattern where a system is captured and slung northwards up the coast. 

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31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I feel like I am reading thru the Nov thread from last year right now. 

Lol... Well you're not because we're in 2024. Different year, different time, and it's not going to be identical to last year.

Can't wait till we have our first snow event, you'll be the first one on that wagon calling for 4"-8". 

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s amazing how many gulf systems failed to produce rain up here this year 

Right, I've been thinking about that. That is some pretty brutal luck. 

I often wonder, if we did not have that massive HP over us when Helene was moving inland, if we would have had some big impact here (assuming Helene would have taken a more eastward track up the coast versus going up the Tennessee Valley). 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Right, I've been thinking about that. That is some pretty brutal luck. 

I often wonder, if we did not have that massive HP over us when Helene was moving inland, if we would have had some big impact here (assuming Helene would have taken a more eastward track up the coast versus going up the Tennessee Valley). 

Crazy. The eps overnight didn’t have a rain chance for the northeast until 11/22 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy. The eps overnight didn’t have a rain chance for the northeast until 11/22 

It's really wild. I was looking at H5 evolution on the 6z GFS and thought maybe we could see a decent chance for some rain with that cold front around that time frame but looked at the sfc and nope. It's a vigorous trough that digs, unfortunately it becomes a massive, occluded piece of junk which results in the whole system weakening as it moves into the Northeast. 

Really the whole pattern moving forward seems to favor closed off systems within the mid-west which occlude as they move across the Ohio Valley leaving us with nada. 

We need a drastic PAC shakeup and probably need a massive shakeup over Europe/Asia (moreso Asia) to get things jumpstarted. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's really wild. I was looking at H5 evolution on the 6z GFS and thought maybe we could see a decent chance for some rain with that cold front around that time frame but looked at the sfc and nope. It's a vigorous trough that digs, unfortunately it becomes a massive, occluded piece of junk which results in the whole system weakening as it moves into the Northeast. 

Really the whole pattern moving forward seems to favor closed off systems within the mid-west which occlude as they move across the Ohio Valley leaving us with nada. 

We need a drastic PAC shakeup and probably need a massive shakeup over Europe/Asia (moreso Asia) to get things jumpstarted. 

Yup. The ULL gets trapped underneath the block which will probably get the lake effect machine going the week of thanksgiving. But I don’t see many precipitation chances that week here with everything getting shredded by the ULL. Perhaps something when that moves out later towards months end 

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The best thing to probably do is compliment the assessment of D7-10 ensembles and then start assessing how guidance is verifying with the pattern across Asia through the central PAC. If these D7-10 day "pattern changes" have merit, we'll start seeing that in the D3-4 time frame within that region. But then again, when it comes to pattern changes, I guess it depends on what metric someone is using to quantify a pattern change. I mean if we have a pattern with a trough in the west and ridge in the East with a dry east and go to a ridge in the west and trough in the east but still come out dry...that pattern did technically change. 

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Thankfully we’re getting the coldest of the winter out of the way now. 

Fine by me. I was thinking the other night when I was standing outside at like 6:30 or 7:00...it only 6 months it will still be light out with temps in the 90's and dews in the 70's. Almost there

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1.74” since Aug 20th here. I think this dry pattern goes right thru the winter. 

It might. But it will definitely get more wet than it’s been. We were bound for a dry stretch…I mean we were killing it in the rain/moisture department for a year plus.  It was pretty easy to see the drying out coming.  

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Fine by me. I was thinking the other night when I was standing outside at like 6:30 or 7:00...it only 6 months it will still be light out with temps in the 90's and dews in the 70's. Almost there

You got six more weeks of losing daylight to go wiz…enjoy the increasing darkness. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

It might. But it will definitely get more wet than it’s been. We were bound for a dry stretch…I mean we were killing it in the rain/moisture department for a year plus.  It was pretty easy to see the drying out coming.  

We don’t know that. It might not . Only DJT knows for sure. 
https://x.com/eweather13/status/1856522435870298390?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It might. But it will definitely get more wet than it’s been. We were bound for a dry stretch…I mean we were killing it in the rain/moisture department for a year plus.  It was pretty easy to see the drying out coming.  

This goes far beyond a "drying out"....this is an all time  historical drought for the fall across much of the northeast. 

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