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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that’s BS. They’ll be lucky for 32.

The MET should just be canned. There are situations where it will outperform but 99% of the time its pure garbage...waste of resources really. Maybe not as much around these parts but other areas of the county it can be an absolute embarrassment. I get MOS isn't going to handle anomalous patterns at all but there are some situations it will be like 10-20F below MAV/NBM.  

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The MET should just be canned. There are situations where it will outperform but 99% of the time its pure garbage...waste of resources really. Maybe not as much around these parts but other areas of the county it can be an absolute embarrassment. I get MOS isn't going to handle anomalous patterns at all but there are some situations it will be like 10-20F below MAV/NBM.  

Yeah. You’re losing the CAA so I’m not sure they’ll get much colder than 32-33. Just my guess. Maybe if they hang onto a light NW wind they could. But 22? lol.

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah i can't act like the blocking with -EPO/-WPO showing up isn't a positive sign

The signal is fairly strong now on guidance, for me the question is how long will this -EPO/-WPO last? If it has real staying power and persists into mid-late Dec we would already be rapidly deviating from some of the worst case analogs (01-02, 22-23 etc). If it only lasts a few days or so then that will be concerning. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. You’re losing the CAA so I’m not sure they’ll get much colder than 32-33. Just my guess. Maybe if they hang onto a light NW wind they could. But 22? lol.

At least based on bufkit, the GFS is lightest with winds but MOS/NBM keep BOS around 10 knots through the night. Even if you look at NAM bufkit at BOS, coldest 2M temp is right around 32 and it doesn't really seem favorable for rad cooling (unless the winds ended up becoming quite lite) but yeah...even if that happens 22 isn't happening. 

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35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't think this winter is going to be a complete no-show again. Pretty confident in modestly better Pacific relative to last year providing some decent chances.

After the last 2 seasons my expectations are so low.  So at this point get me above 25 inches for the year and it will feel like a victory. The pattern has been pretty consistent, even with the gulf cane's showing up every few weeks. But things start to look different into Turkey week....

21⁰ this morning, teens are almost a lock tomorrow morning

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17 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

After the last 2 seasons my expectations are so low.  So at this point get me above 25 inches for the year and it will feel like a victory. The pattern has been pretty consistent, even with the gulf cane's showing up every few weeks. But things start to look different into Turkey week....

21⁰ this morning, teens are almost a lock tomorrow morning

I’m already over sweating details this season. Whatever happens, happens. Can’t get any worse (technically it could). 

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