Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[weatherwiz]

Well I guess we've arrived to the point in the season where

1. The first "winter" threat is around Thanksgiving. Then when that doesn't happen...

2. EPS shows big pattern change coming around D10...winter should settle in by 12/10. Then when that doesn't happen...

3. Pattern being delayed, but should change around Christmas. Then when that doesn't happen...

4. A bit delayed but EPS still insistent on a change around D10...probably first or second week of January things change. Then when that doesn't happen...

5. Looks like we'll have a window around mid-February, then maybe again early March, otherwise we're cooked. 

Reminds me of the diagram meme for Cowboys fans 

[tamarack]

22 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cape May gets the jackpot.  Of course!

[ORH_wxman]

Ensembles are trying to cool things down Tday week. Nothing crazy but at least cold enough that you’d might get a threat if you lined up some synoptics.
 

 Euro weeklies from last week were still a furnace though right through the first 10 days of December, we’ll see if they change today. 

[mreaves]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well I guess we've arrived to the point in the season where

1. The first "winter" threat is around Thanksgiving. Then when that doesn't happen...

2. EPS shows big pattern change coming around D10...winter should settle in by 12/10. Then when that doesn't happen...

3. Pattern being delayed, but should change around Christmas. Then when that doesn't happen...

4. A bit delayed but EPS still insistent on a change around D10...probably first or second week of January things change. Then when that doesn't happen...

5. Looks like we'll have a window around mid-February, then maybe again early March, otherwise we're cooked. 

Reminds me of the diagram meme for Cowboys fans 

I think you can safely remove the "Choke in the playoffs" part of that graphic this year.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

I think you can safely remove the "Choke in the playoffs" part of that graphic this year.

True, the best way to avoid choking in the playoffs is by missing the playoffs. 

[ma blizzard]

0.13" overnight, 2.31" since 8/19

[Torch Tiger]

Nice mild day on the Cape.  Take

[HIPPYVALLEY]

49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well I guess we've arrived to the point in the season where

1. The first "winter" threat is around Thanksgiving. Then when that doesn't happen...

2. EPS shows big pattern change coming around D10...winter should settle in by 12/10. Then when that doesn't happen...

3. Pattern being delayed, but should change around Christmas. Then when that doesn't happen...

4. A bit delayed but EPS still insistent on a change around D10...probably first or second week of January things change. Then when that doesn't happen...

5. Looks like we'll have a window around mid-February, then maybe again early March, otherwise we're cooked. 

Reminds me of the diagram meme for Cowboys fans 

You left out after February doesn’t work out, time to think about the  “countdown to May 1st” thread.   
Then you can make a similar chart for severe weather in SNE.

[Lava Rock]

63.3F. while it's been pretty nice for this time of the year, it's time to move on. LFG!

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

sort of like saying if the Titanic had not hit the iceberg...

It’s November 11th. I mean it isn’t January 30th.  Again, I’ve been enjoying this. If things start to cool some going towards Thanksgiving, which it looks to do, then I’m fine with that too.  I’m not understanding the angst?  But to each their own.
 

 I don’t buy into week 4 Euro weeklies garbage either, even if they were showing a great set up(we know how that has gone the last couple years ) that’s low skill crap out that far no matter what it shows. 
 

Personally, Id rather everything hold off till early to mid December anyways, but that’s just me.  Let the west have their turn as they seem to be having now.  Nothing wrong with that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles are trying to cool things down Tday week. Nothing crazy but at least cold enough that you’d might get a threat if you lined up some synoptics.
 

 Euro weeklies from last week were still a furnace though right through the first 10 days of December, we’ll see if they change today. 

first synoptic snow potential in 10 days +  ... unless these indices are full of shit. but it's multi-sourced as a signal, one that was really seeded about 5 to 7 days ago and is now getting a -epo pulse added to its growth. 

was gonna elaborate but others have been discussing already -

[CoastalWx]

Not much money in the bank though. It's going to really need to be timed well. 

[CoastalWx]

FWIW GFS tries to introduce some mixed precip (SN/IP/RA) into NH and Maine later this week into the weekend.

[Typhoon Tip]

heh..  whenever i see 'FWIW' and 'FXWX' ( john ) within a post or two of one another my dyslexia's on steroids 

[Typhoon Tip]

nothing ( of course ) has verified yet but it seems the gfs is spending an aweful lot of electrons figuring ways to buckle the flow and create deep lows out there in the extended ranges 

 

[kdxken]

61 here. Doesn't feel like much of a beach day with the wind. Supposed I shouldn't complain.

[UnitedWx]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s November 11th. I mean it isn’t January 30th.  Again, I’ve been enjoying this. If things start to cool some going towards Thanksgiving, which it looks to do, then I’m fine with that too.  I’m not understanding the angst?  But to each their own.
 

 I don’t buy into week 4 Euro weeklies garbage either, even if they were showing a great set up(we know how that has gone the last couple years ) that’s low skill crap out that far no matter what it shows. 
 

Personally, Id rather everything hold off till early to mid December anyways, but that’s just me.  Let the west have their turn as they seem to be having now.  Nothing wrong with that. 

I just had to shake my head a page or so back with some discussing a future pattern like it's mid January next week... OMFG please don't let them start that crap yet! I look out two weeks at the most. The solutions beyond that (or less) have been flip flopping all over the place on the GFS forever

[CoastalWx]

64 here. Pretty darn nice out.

[HoarfrostHubb]

34 minutes ago, kdxken said:

61 here. Doesn't feel like much of a beach day with the wind. Supposed I shouldn't complain.

Great day for doing some late season yard stuff tho. 

[Typhoon Tip]

mm that -nao low may retrograde over this weekend.  some wet flakes to the northern els and chilly cap paw rain showers down here.   euro's a bit warm tho

[dendrite]

A few 70s in there so far

[Brian5671]

Another 70 spot here.  Crazy first 1/3 of November for high temps

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A few 70s in there so far

 

It's just so easy to be warm now. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

It's just so easy to be warm now. 

Our cool downs go from way above normal to just a bit above normal now. Can’t sustain anything below for long stretches 

[Great Snow 1717]

43 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Our cool downs go from way above normal to just a bit above normal now. Can’t sustain anything below for long stretches 

I agree....reinforcing cold fronts have become become an urban legend of sorts...I miss the days of the Alberta Clipper...they usually did not bring much in the way of snow but often brought windy conditions and colder air..

[CoastalWx]

Euro op is interesting. Backs up the low far enough west to keep some ocnl RA/DZ into ern areas.

[CoastalWx]

I like how we can advect -5C air at 925mb from the NE in mid November, but in January we are lucky to get -1C.  You just have to laugh. 

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op is interesting. Backs up the low far enough west to keep some ocnl RA/DZ into ern areas.

Sounds like that coastal in Sept 

[WinterWolf]

64 here…forecast was for 64, so spot on.  Congrats whoever had the 70 spot.  Nice day. 

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

64 here…forecast was for 64, so spot on.  Congrats whoever had the 70 spot.  Nice day. 

BDL with a perhaps not so fake high of 69. HFD hit 68 two straight hours so presumably they also hit 69. Guess not all weather can be fake, just cold