Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Snowcrazed71]

11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Agreed. People just wish casting that everything flips by December. A warm October/November is often a winter death knell. 

Seasonal models also show this. 

Well... There you have it. Winter is canceled!! You heard it here first. :-)

( Joking of course )

 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was it 2002 of the Thanksgiving snow or 2004 (or maybe both years). But that 2004 one (assuming I got the year right) was pretty solid. I remember we got an early dismissal from school that day. It was snowing pretty hard by late morning. Want to say I got like 5-8'' in West Hartford...maybe not quite 8. 

There was one in 02 that I remember..3-5” deal on a Wednesday night/Thursday early morning.  

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There was one in 02 that I remember..3-5” deal on a Wednesday night/Thursday early morning.  

hmm maybe there was both '02 and '04. I can't remember '02 but I am pretty sure we also had snow before Thanksgiving in '04. I remember being in math class when we got the early dismissal announcement and that class/teacher I had was during my junior year of high school which was '04. I'm trying to recall '02...I also know one of those years we had some nasty thunderstorms roll through during the morning around Thanksgiving...may have even been on Thanksgiving. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

hmm maybe there was both '02 and '04. I can't remember '02 but I am pretty sure we also had snow before Thanksgiving in '04. I remember being in math class when we got the early dismissal announcement and that class/teacher I had was during my junior year of high school which was '04. I'm trying to recall '02...I also know one of those years we had some nasty thunderstorms roll through during the morning around Thanksgiving...may have even been on Thanksgiving. 

Very well could be Paul…I just remember 02, cuz a couple weeks prior in early November it was 72 degrees and I was on my Harley. 

[Ginx snewx]

Actually per stats Kevs winter should begin around Dec 3rd or so. Before then his average is 2 to 3  inches.  November snow before Tday melts the next day. Good news is there is today hints of a pattern flip around Tday. 

[WinterWolf]

12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Agreed. People just wish casting that everything flips by December. A warm October/November is often a winter death knell. 

Seasonal models also show this. 

Voo-Doo most times. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Was it 2002 of the Thanksgiving snow or 2004 (or maybe both years). But that 2004 one (assuming I got the year right) was pretty solid. I remember we got an early dismissal from school that day. It was snowing pretty hard by late morning. Want to say I got like 5-8'' in West Hartford...maybe not quite 8. 

Here it was 2005, a modest 3.7" but our daughter/SIL were visiting and their (then) home at GSP didn't offer much for snow.  We had moderate SN without a breath of wind for most of the daylight hours.  (Only later did we learn about the EF-1 and EF-0 tornados in the midcoast.  First cold-air tors I'd ever heard of.)

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Actually per stats Kevs winter should begin around Dec 3rd or so. Before then his average is 2 to 3  inches.  November snow before Tday melts the next day. Good news is there is today hints of a pattern flip around Tday. 

I was just saying in a much earlier post that it was mentioned by one of the CT mets that he thinks our first chance of seeing our first flakes in Connecticut are going to be sometime between the 23rd and 27th of November. So that goes along with what you're saying about a possible pattern flip. But just so I cover myself. Especially for those others in here that are pessimistic...... I'M NOT SAYING THIS IS HAPPENING FOR SURE! Just wanted to be clear...hehe

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Here it was 2005, a modest 3.7" but our daughter/SIL were visiting and their (then) home at GSP didn't offer much for snow.  We had moderate SN without a breath of wind for most of the daylight hours.  (Only later did we learn about the EF-1 and EF-0 tornados in the midcoast.  First cold-air tors I'd ever heard of.)

I need to go back and try and case study that one (much harder with ::gulp:: data 20 years old), but IWI started the day with 1/4 +SN and ended up with tornadoes not too far away after climbing to near 45 degrees. Must've been warmer on the other side of the warm front too.

Buoy water temp at the LNB was like 47 too, so probably had really steep lapse rates from the water to the 3 km level. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I need to go back and try and case study that one (much harder with ::gulp:: data 20 years old), but IWI started the day with 1/4 +SN and ended up with tornadoes not too far away after climbing to near 45 degrees. Must've been warmer on the other side of the warm front too.

Buoy water temp at the LNB was like 47 too, so probably had really steep lapse rates from the water to the 3 km level. 

do you think those kinds of tornadoes might be assisted by some sort of raging synoptic forcing

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

do you think those kinds of tornadoes might be assisted by some sort of raging synoptic forcing

Definitely going to have synoptic forcing there, but my gut feeling is that these were more waterspouts moving onshore vs supercells.

[DJln491]

From Octorture to Blowvember

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Definitely going to have synoptic forcing there, but my gut feeling is that these were more waterspouts moving onshore vs supercells.

the reason i was really asking is the seasonality of that.   the nws conference last year ( not this one the other day ...) showcased a 48 to 55 f, sensibly cold air, low eof swarm down in se sections down here, and showed the neg tilt 500 mb and sfc cyclone pulled up west of orh while that was happening.  can't recall exactly but i think the case study was an octo or novie event. maybe even dec. fascinating.  

seems autumn/early winter is a time to get that. i think there was some discussion/speculating about diabatic association to the near by ocean entrainment

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1851671665509531674?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1851671665509531674?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Euro weeklies suck past 2 weeks at best…take with grain of salt past mid month

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I need to go back and try and case study that one (much harder with ::gulp:: data 20 years old), but IWI started the day with 1/4 +SN and ended up with tornadoes not too far away after climbing to near 45 degrees. Must've been warmer on the other side of the warm front too.

Buoy water temp at the LNB was like 47 too, so probably had really steep lapse rates from the water to the 3 km level. 

PWM temp shot up to 43 on the 24th while my pace topped out at 27.  (Daily minimums almost certainly at the end of the obs periods.)  
Data:         PWM                            MBY
11/22   49  36  2.39     0        39  30   1.99    0.2
11/23   36  22  0.04    1.0       31   18   0.01    0.2
11/24   43  19  0.40    1.0       27   14   0.39   3.7

Maybe whatever caused the temp jump also was a factor in the spinners?
 

[Allsnow]

Looks warm 

[CoastalWx]

We had snow events in Nov 02 (Right before T day) and in 2004. I think 2004 was maybe around 11/20 give or take. 02 IIRC was a good one in CT with like 6-10". 2004 was good even in interior SE MA. Many areas there got like 5-8". 

[DavisStraight]

We had a good Thanksgiving storm in the 70s, though I don't remember the year. They cancelled the Thanksgiving day high school football game and played the next week. It was warmer but there was still snow on the sidelines.

[Ginx snewx]

53 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

We had a good Thanksgiving storm in the 70s, though I don't remember the year. They cancelled the Thanksgiving day high school football game and played the next week. It was warmer but there was still snow on the sidelines.

1971  and 1989

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1971  and 1989

I think my parents have pictures of 71 somewhere..I was 3 yrs old.   89 I remember very well.. that was a good one. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We had snow events in Nov 02 (Right before T day) and in 2004. I think 2004 was maybe around 11/20 give or take. 02 IIRC was a good one in CT with like 6-10". 2004 was good even in interior SE MA. Many areas there got like 5-8". 

It was a Wednesday night in 02 I believe..(night before T-Giving into early T-Giving morning).  I’m remembering like 5 or 6” but it could have been a little more than that too. But it was a good little event. 

[FXWX]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It was a Wednesday night in 02 I believe..(night before T-Giving into early T-Giving morning).  I’m remembering like 5 or 6” but it could have been a little more than that too. But it was a good little event. 

Nov 26, 2014... Day before turkey day... Evening pic.

[H2Otown_WX]

48 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It was a Wednesday night in 02 I believe..(night before T-Giving into early T-Giving morning).  I’m remembering like 5 or 6” but it could have been a little more than that too. But it was a good little event. 

It was more than that around here, had almost 10" in Watertown...as I recall it happened during the day on the 26th. Great way to kick off an epic winter. Oddly enough, there's almost nothing about it online. I guess it may have been pretty localized and elevation dependent.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

It was more than that around here, had almost 10" in Watertown...as I recall it happened during the day on the 26th. Great way to kick off an epic winter. Oddly enough, there's almost nothing about it online. I guess it may have been pretty localized and elevation dependent.

Ya…I’m not remembering 10” here…but I believe you got that in 02. Like I said I probably had 5-6” here. 

[WinterWolf]

58 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Nov 26, 2014... Day before turkey day... Evening pic.

For some reason I’m not remembering any event day before thanksgiving in 2014.  Maybe we didn’t get in on that due to not having your elevation?  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Nov 26, 2014... Day before turkey day... Evening pic.

 Back when it snowed and November started winter. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

It was more than that around here, had almost 10" in Watertown...as I recall it happened during the day on the 26th. Great way to kick off an epic winter. Oddly enough, there's almost nothing about it online. I guess it may have been pretty localized and elevation dependent.

That would have been a Tuesday(the 26th)…I think it was a Wednesday night, not a Tuesday. 

[WinterWolf]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 Back when it snowed and November started winter. 

Lol…We had a good SWFE in mid November 2018.  It hapoens. Just not that often.  I mean we had snow on 10/30/20 here…2-3”.   So it’s not like this doesn’t happen.  But it should not be counted on or expected to happen. 

[CoastalWx]

 November 02 started Wednesday night. Ended Thursday morning.