Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[CoastalWx]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Let's end this mini drought with a bang 

A violent sell

[kdxken]

35 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Let's end this mini drought with a bang 

It's coming.

[WinterWolf]

It’s(the dry period) gonna end at some point…

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It’s(the dry period) gonna end at some point…

It should get more active later in the month.

[tunafish]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

More soaking rains for NNE tonight .

Nailed it

[mreaves]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Nailed it

I fear mushrooms are going to start spouting with the .07 I've received this week.

[SnoSki14]

12 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Seen this hurricane season take a few times, the NOAA forecast has verified across named storms, total hurricanes and major hurricanes.

Odd distribution across the season but yes it's verifying 

In fact another storm or two is probable after Rafael and a hyperactive ACE is still in play. 

[Modfan2]

Little surprised there is no Red Flag warning down here, although I guess RH is a little high; winds a little concerning.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

What’s EPS have? Euro op sucks. 

EPS is not enthused at all, with a general 0.2-0.4 total QPF from the Mid-Atlantic through the northeast by Wednesday, which makes me view the GFS with extreme skepticism 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024110500&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EPS is not enthused at all, with a general 0.2-0.4 total QPF from the Mid-Atlantic through the northeast by Wednesday, which makes me view the GFS with extreme skepticism 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=qpf_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024110500&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Yeah I looked myself. Hopefully GFS suite is right.

[CoastalWx]

Alrighty quite breezy here.

[Typhoon Tip]

if we don't get rid of this cc-attributable higher water vapor content at 13 k feet gunk, global warming will cause today to be a cold bust at the sfc

 

[Typhoon Tip]

 

novie was seldom a winter month along the 42nd ... that changed in climate recency.  i've lived as far west as kalamazoo mi, vs locally, my whole life. regardless of either end, novie only became a month that serves cryo events more recently decade(s).  prior, it was always more like smelling like snow during cold rains  ( ...none of this describes whatever your weather culture was up in higher terrain)

anyway..  we're passing through the doorway into solar minimum.   right on cue ( or is it queue ) the operataional model runs are painting -20C above the 70th parallel.    there's cold air around, it's a matter of access.   cpc is selling an ao mode relaxation, if not change, from the lofty index.  this is apparently dragging the nao as well.   these are not yet compelling because at this time of year, ...index forecasting is error prone, almost as stochastic as the daily model at times.  we'll have to see.  but the epo is negative at some sources ive seen out there between d10 and 2 weeks...  putting these together, they're like the light over the horizon even if the winter day is not yet dawned in the models.

for now, we enjoy ludicrous warmth followed by seasonal temperatures, before repeating

 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

novie was seldom a winter month along the 42nd ... that changed in climate recency.  i've lived as far west as kalamazoo mi, vs locally, my whole life. regardless of either end, novie only became a month that serves cryo events more recently decade(s).  prior, it was always more like smelling like snow during cold rains  ( ...none of this describes whatever your weather culture was up in higher terrain)

anyway..  we're passing through the doorway into solar minimum.   right on cue ( or is it queue ) the operataional model runs are painting -20C above the 70th parallel.    there's cold air around, it's a matter of access.   cpc is selling an ao mode relaxation, if not change, from the lofty index.  this is apparently dragging the nao as well.   these are not yet compelling because at this time of year, ...index forecasting is almost as stochastic as the daily model at times.  we'll have to see.  but the epo is negative at some sources ive seen out there between d10 and 2 weeks...  putting these today, there like the light over the horizon even the winter days is not yet dawned in the models.

for now, we enjoy ludicrous warmth followed by seasonal temperatures, before repeating

 

I don't know about that Tip. Looks like Novie used to serve up way more cryo events in the distant past. 1950, of course, was the grandaddy of them all.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know about that Tip. Looks like Novie used to serve up way more cryo events in the distant past. 1950, of course, was the grandaddy of them all.

Your neck of the woods looks similar, although I can kind of see what you mean. There was a bit of resurgence in the 1980s and 1990s, but less than the 1930s and 1940s at Logan. It's only in the last 15 years or so where it's always a shutout.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't know about that Tip. Looks like Novie used to serve up way more cryo events in the distant past. 1950, of course, was the grandaddy of them all.

jesus, how old do you think i am ?   lol   1950

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

jesus, how old do you think i am ?   lol   1950

Lol, no I did say I saw your point in the BOS snowfall data - assuming you were referring to the time from the 1980s to early 2000s.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Your neck of the woods looks similar, although I can kind of see what you mean. There was a bit of resurgence in the 1980s and 1990s, but less than the 1930s and 1940s at Logan. It's only in the last 15 years or so where it's always a shutout.

either way ... it should be going the warm way as certain aspect that shall remain diplomatic ... continue to evolve.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just brutal for all winter wx fans. Brutal Nov leading to brutal dryness winter 

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1853825304994742418?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[FXWX]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just brutal for all winter wx fans. Brutal Nov leading to brutal dryness winter 

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1853825304994742418?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Like the last several years, it will come down to whether or not we can time the relatively short cold periods with an active storm pattern...  

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS trying to form another cat 5 day 10 lol

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS trying to form another cat 5 day 10 lol

That's far more likely than any shot at snow or even BN temps

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's far more likely than any shot at snow or even BN temps

gets down to 915mb

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Like the last several years, it will come down to whether or not we can time the relatively short cold periods with an active storm pattern...  

At this juncture ,that’s about the best we can hope for.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Like the last several years, it will come down to whether or not we can time the relatively short cold periods with an active storm pattern...  

yup. Timing a 2wk favorable pattern is what our winters have become lately. 

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

jesus, how old do you think i am ?   lol   1950

I'm confident that you're familiar with the Great Appalachian Gale.  In NNJ we were well into the warm side, with moderate rain and very strong winds - lots of fallen leaf-off oaks and maples.  In my experience, only the backside NW gales behind the blizzard that ate Bangor on 12/31/62 can compete with the winds of 11/25/50.

Going back to Stein - I noted that NYC recorded only 0.01" for October, their driest month since records began in 1869 and only June 1949 (0.02") is close.  3rd driest is 0.14" in Oct 1963.  (EWR had only traces last month.  Their previous record was 0.07", June 1949 and May 2021.)

[MJO812]

No sign of any cold weather through 384 on the gfs. Weird.

[Allsnow]

 

[CoastalWx]

What does Mark Magarbage think?

[weatherwiz]

If we can just somehow shift that ridging over the Aleutians or maintain it and then shift it into the GoA moving into Dec. that could be a big gam changer. But I really worry with how pronounced that ridging is which extends from the Pacific through Mexico and into the Southeast U.S.