40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 8 hours ago, ineedsnow said: ukie is really nice Ukie is a nice illustration of the limitations of this system...the ceiling is an elevation event. Next (AFIC)- 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stein is going to be the way this one goes. Euro will fold Wrong again bud. Looks as if Rain is in the cards for us as of now. Can it change.... Maybe, but that's definitely a very Slight maybe. Can we get a lighter event ( maybe even a little snow here in SNE ).. again, more on the maybe side. The most likely outcome is Rain here and some Snow to the north. Time to send Stein packing ( at least on this one ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Interesting system for the cluster analysis. There are definitely clusters (the flatter ones) that have lower mean snowfall, but all of the clusters have a solid 90th percentile event. So even the upper end of the flat members can produce a good low end warning event. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Ya rain or snow definitely going to get something. Stein is gone for now The stein option is still on the table . As is a Rainer for most of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good luck with that. Good luck with what? All I'm saying is that it is pretty unique that all the clusters' high end goalposts are decent events. Usually there is a total rat in there. I'm still trying to tease out reasoning, but to me that suggests that timing is more of a factor in producing snow than amplification with this system. Aside from holiday travel aspect, I'm pretty skeptical still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Just now, OceanStWx said: Good luck with what? All I'm saying is that it is pretty unique that all the clusters' high end goalposts are decent events. Usually there is a total rat in there. I'm still trying to tease out reasoning, but to me that suggests that timing is more of a factor in producing snow than amplification with this system. Aside from holiday travel aspect, I'm pretty skeptical still. A decent snow event across most of SNE....I know you aren't forecasting that per se, and are merely communicating what the data is indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A decent snow event across most of SNE....I know you aren't forecasting that per se, and are merely communicating what the data is indicating. Oh definitely not SNE. I would amend my previous post to say north of the Pike. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 That could be some serious lake effect snow around Buffalo Saturday with thunder...maybe waterspouts too. Snowadoes comin' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Oh definitely not SNE. I would amend my previous post to say north of the Pike. I would amend it and say "above 700' north of pilke", but I still think its mostly a VT, NH, ME deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 I'd take a nice 2-4" event to start the season on Friday. Set the holiday mood for the in-laws visiting from Sacramento. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Give the snow to NNE on this one….better chances for SNE the following week. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Give the snow to NNE on this one….better chances for SNE the following week. Agreed. Still quite a bit too early to be wishing for it down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 This window is quickly turning to "normal" for most. From Boston to Portland, I'd bank on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Just give me 1-2" or so for tracking purposes thurs-fri this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Should be a nice little drink for everyone tomorrow. Certainly not enough to cut into the deficit really but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 NAM tracking to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 12z Nam is pretty flat with the end of the week deal fwiw and that is not much 84hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 On 11/18/2024 at 9:43 AM, jbenedet said: 6Z EPS says I register AN all week. And i buy it... EPS ftw... AN streak continues... 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Should be a nice little drink for everyone tomorrow. Certainly not enough to cut into the deficit really but something. Looks like an icy start up this way with the system coming thru overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Give the snow to NNE on this one….better chances for SNE the following week. Are we sure about that, though? I’m not actually as convinced as I was last week that what we’re moving to is actually a solid snowstorm producing pattern in CT. Maybe a clipper or two, sure, but I can see suppression of anything significant with a trough that deep. Not trying to be a downer, I just don’t see the cold-(coastal) storm connection being a lock in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Give the snow to NNE on this one….better chances for SNE the following week. Get ready: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 I see a string of surface lows in southeastern Canada.... This is a crap setup guys... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like an icy start up this way with the system coming thru overnight. yeah definitely going to be on the slick side up your way. This is why when I complain about how shitty winter is...I have to remember to indicate I'm talking about down here. Even in the most garbage regimes, you NNE'ers still find way's to get wintry precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I see a string of surface lows in southeastern Canada.... This is a crap setup guys... I'm really not sold on much for this end of the week. It's just a cold front coming through with a weak wave developing along it. There certainly is room for a second wave to develop Thursday night/Friday morning but I don't think its going to be a situation where NNE has any room for snow (reason being QPF will be farther south). It's either going to be rain for SNE or the second wave develops even farther south and we get little QPF, outside of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 The GFS op is the only model that develops a surface high in eastern canada for turkey day. Even the 6Z GEFS calls BS.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Cold November rains for most this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Just now, jbenedet said: The GFS op is the only model that develops a surface high in canada for turkey day. Even the 6Z GEFS calls BS.. I think we all agree it's lousy for SNE. Unless somehow the GFS blew up the second wave and then higher elevations of ORH county may get into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: yeah definitely going to be on the slick side up your way. This is why when I complain about how shitty winter is...I have to remember to indicate I'm talking about down here. Even in the most garbage regimes, you NNE'ers still find way's to get wintry precip Ha ha, A little more iffy where i live, But don't have to venture to far to my NW for it to become a winter wonderland real quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 It’s Stein 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 25 Share Posted November 25 Have to watch the GFS to see if it sniffs something out with that SLP along the front going forward, That would probably be a better scenario for a lot more folks especially inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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