Damage In Tolland Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Just now, Torch Tiger said: yeah you can envision a very crisp, dry stretch for a few weeks before a killer cutter slices way west and breaks up the Stein The fear/ danger this winter is suppression and dry overall 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The fear/ danger this winter is suppression and dry overall That’s not 01-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s not 01-02 That was a very dry fall and a crap winter . All top 5 dry falls were horrific snow winters . There’s almost no way this doesn’t follow suit . Wolf will say we just don’t know and things will change . He guarantees it . 1 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The fear/ danger this winter is suppression and dry overall Yeah, we're due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Guess I didn't have to rush and put on the snowblower yesterday Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Meh still 5 to 6 days out.. could be a soaking rain, snowstorm, or a partly cloudy day.. who really knows at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 People freaking out over a possible thanksgiving miss. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Same here. Funny thing, didn't the Euro just have a Major upgrade? And what is the difference between the Euro and the Euro AI? Is the second one experimental. Just trying to figure that one out. Anyway, The cold air meth wasn't really supposed to settle in until December? People be acting like this is some big loss LOL The euro overamped bias in the 120-144 range sort of went away the last 1-2 years because it had a minor upgrade in 2022 I think. I would be surprised if this ended up as flat as the GFS. It'll probably be something between the two where at least most areas see some rain which is needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Would rather whiff and have a nice Thanksgiving. Would be better for the after dinner backyard football game. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Just now, dendrite said: Would be better for the after dinner backyard football game. Yeah wouldn’t mind being outside for a bit vs 41 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The euro overamped bias in the 120-144 range sort of went away the last 1-2 years because it had a minor upgrade in 2022 I think. I would be surprised if this ended up as flat as the GFS. It'll probably be something between the two where at least most areas see some rain which is needed. Euro was bad last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah wouldn’t mind being outside for a bit vs 41 and rain. Although if we have to stay in and watch the Cowboys get spanked, so be it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: People freaking out over a possible thanksgiving miss. No one is freaking at all other than you at a Diddy Freak off Just expressing concerns over a dry winter pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 No surprises. Brooklyn's maps later today will look really good at h5 though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 She gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 I don’t know, might be early to write it off totally. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No one is freaking at all other than you at a Diddy Freak off Just expressing concerns over a dry winter pattern Scooter freaked. A cold/dry first half of December followed by Xmas rains may just send him on the same path as Epstein. Not David…Jeffrey. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 This close out and seeing a whiff vs a Rainer makes me wonder if a compromise is in order. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Scooter freaked. A cold/dry first half of December followed by Xmas rains may just send him on the same path as Epstein. Not David…Jeffrey. Rough crowd in here this morning. Waiting to see if AmWx admins are on the list of Diddy freakoff attendees. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Funny enough cold pattern would help the maple producers so there is some bright sideSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Just now, CoastalWx said: This close out and seeing a whiff vs a Rainer makes me wonder if a compromise is in order. IMO. Pattern really dosent scream whiff. I think this will slowly creep back on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Rough crowd in here this morning. Waiting to see if AmWx admins are on the list of Diddy freakoff attendees. Will disappears for half the year. Where does he go? Hmmm… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This close out and seeing a whiff vs a Rainer makes me wonder if a compromise is in order. Agreed. That’s usually how these go. And if it’s a miss, big frieken deal. Everybody calm the F down. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 What's even funnier is there are some of you that are writing a storm off completely for the Thanksgiving Holiday, even if it's just rain. And then there's some of you that are saying it's going to be dry till the end of December. Come on now, get a grip and settle down. Same shyte..... Different year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Wouldn't write anything off here yet, Some of you should know better with how modeling goes, Usually, Having the GFS OTS at this point is not a bad thing, It would be a bad thing if it was going over freaks reindeer sweater right now. 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 30 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Will disappears for half the year. Where does he go? Hmmm… He, Dendy, and Randy top of list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 The hyperbole starts to ramp up, when modeling is indecisive, so posters start to throw around crazy ideas like dry through December, on November 24th lol. Just like back in early October, with the ridiculous frost ideas…which was all silly BS. We watch and wait as Jeff(dryslot) just said in the posts before this one. We’ve seen this so many times before. And if it misses, that’s just fine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wouldn't write anything off here yet, Some of you should know better with how modeling goes, Usually, Having the GFS OTS at this point is not a bad thing, It would be a bad thing if it was going over freaks reindeer sweater right now. This. Idk how this’ll shake out, but I know I’d rather see this model mayhem than them all converging on a Cleveland cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The hyperbole starts to ramp up, when modeling is indecisive, so posters start to throw around crazy ideas like dry through December, on November 24th lol. Just like back in early October, with the ridiculous frost ideas…which was all silly BS. We watch and wait as Jeff(dryslot) just said in the posts before this one. We’ve seen this so many times before. And if it misses, that’s just fine too. suggest 80% eps/geps blend weighting against gefs 20% - so not discarding the flatter appeal altogether, some inclusion in the latter is okay given to the quickening flow around the epo cold loading that's currently taking over continent. the gradient physically forces this latter aspect the flow's likely to speed up ... which unfortunately plays right into the gefs model system's subtle progressive bias that it inherited from previous versions - those were worse with that particular bias. i don' know about details with ptype and where. i'm just talking about averaging for a moderate fast moving cyclone. out of town. i shall miss whatever that entails 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Icon is a cold rain for SNE Thanksgiving day and misses south with the main system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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