weathafella Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'll be at Pti2---hoping for the best. Latitude won’t hurt but that oceans edge location probably won’t help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 That airmass will be tough to work with next week around these parts until maybe the very end. Or, it just goes nuclear offshore, but not sure that’s a likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Latitude won’t hurt but that oceans edge location probably won’t help. I'm about 10 miles above open ocean, and anything wind north of due east is a land breeze. So, there's always that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 18z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 That’s an upstate NY special on GFS. Does match climo a lot better than an SNE snowstorm. Still hope it comes back SE though. Would be nice to even just get on the board with small accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s an upstate NY special on GFS. Does match climo a lot better than an SNE snowstorm. Still hope it comes back SE though. Would be nice to even just get on the board with small accumulations. Gonna decide tomorrow whether or not its worth previewing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gonna decide tomorrow whether or not its worth previewing this. Let me preview for you: no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Let me preview for you: no I think a couple of inches of slop are possible for me, albeit not particularly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 It’s really marginal at 925 in many areas of New England. So elevation would be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Aren’t threats on the front end of a pattern chance usually more of long shots anyways? Even March 2018 the first threat ended up being a massive rainstorm with snow confined to elevations (Mar 2nd 2018). Some guidance buried us 5-6 days out but ultimately the airmass was too warm. The pattern change in Jan 2015 too, again the models showed us getting buried with 12-18 inches a week or so out and then the storm trended towards a hugger. The point is whiffing on the first storm after a pattern change is typical and doesn’t mean the pattern change failed or this is anything like the abomination that was the past 2 winters. Things will be different this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s really marginal at 925 in many areas of New England. So elevation would be key. Not the worst thing in the world to lay down a pack in NNE for the onset of climo winter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 With no high to the north + the western ridge axis being west of ideal for east coast cyclogenesis I would favor a hugger or inside runner solution with rain for the coast and snow confined to NNE and elevations. The solution on the 12z Canadian is a good middle ground between the 12z Euro and 18z gfs. It fits the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not the worst thing in the world to lay down a pack in NNE for the onset of climo winter. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 12 minutes ago, George001 said: With no high to the north + the western ridge axis being west of ideal for east coast cyclogenesis I would favor a hugger or inside runner solution with rain for the coast and snow confined to NNE and elevations. The solution on the 12z Canadian is a good middle ground between the 12z Euro and 18z gfs. It fits the pattern. Lots of idiots on social media hyping a Black Friday Blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 I hereby lock in the 18 Z GFS. I am getting snow on my new car on Wed so good to have rain for Tues and then Fri Sat looks great, Sorry SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lots of idiots on social media hyping a Black Friday Blizzard. Only chance of that happening is the PV lobe pushing further SE than currently progged and then sharpening that shortwave just enough to bomb it on the coast. Theoretically plausible but very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Wet, cold/dry, wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 18z euro not as juiced up. Good hit for NY state and NNE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 18z Euro looked better north of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro not as juiced up. Good hit for NY state and NNE warning event for them advisory event north of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gonna decide tomorrow whether or not its worth previewing this. Regardless....rain and wind are more exciting than what we had the last couple months (though it was great for outdoor activteis). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Serious ass wind out there tonight. Way better than the high wind warnings during the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: 18z euro not as juiced up. Good hit for NY state and NNE Let's root for Euro AI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 16 minutes ago, kdxken said: Serious ass wind out there tonight. Way better than the high wind warnings during the summer. Often our best wind events over interior SNE are backside CAA in winter/cold season. We can rip on those. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 22 minutes ago, kdxken said: Serious ass wind out there tonight. Way better than the high wind warnings during the summer. Yes, Winds ripping pretty good here with the ULL over NS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Often our best wind events over interior SNE are backside CAA in winter/cold season. We can rip on those. I wonder what its like in the Plains or like Montana when they get big wind events and are sustained 50-60 mph and gusting to 80. That must be fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 Could be some pretty intense LES this weekend...hell could be a pretty prolonged and prolific event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I wonder what its like in the Plains or like Montana when they get big wind events and are sustained 50-60 mph and gusting to 80. That must be fun I experienced one in the texas panhandle one time. Was up in Dalhart, TX and there was a very strong synoptic wind event and it was relentless. There’s no trees to stop anything out there in the high plains. Just constant battering of 40-50 and gusts way higher. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I experienced one in the texas panhandle one time. Was up in Dalhart, TX and there was a very strong synoptic wind event and it was relentless. There’s no trees to stop anything out there in the high plains. Just constant battering of 40-50 and gusts way higher. I would love to experience something like that but I'm fearful I will be airborne 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 24 Share Posted November 24 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Could be some pretty intense LES this weekend...hell could be a pretty prolonged and prolific event. Ontario hunting for bear. Feet and feet possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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