Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Last December we were relying on a huge progged NAO block. Those are inherently less stable than N PAC pattern…they have a more stochastic behavior. That’s also probably why you hear a lot of Mets say “I’ll roll the dice with a great PAC look any day”…those tend to verify more than random huge NAO blocks. Of course, if we actually get a great NAO block that pins a TPV in SE Canada, we will clean up, but it’s hard to trust model progs that show that. 
 

Right now, we’re relying on an NAO block for next week as we wait for the PAC to improve further. So it’s not surprising to see these shifts in the SE Canada look that make it harder to snow here. Esp in November. 
 

I’m cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of December given the vastly improved N PAC. 
 

It’s funny…I went back and looked at some of the progs for last December and even the ones where we had some PNA ridging trying to poke up into EPO domain, we had a vortex over the WPO domain…it was always a turd in the punchbowl lurking beneath the surface. 

 

 

Yes, this season will be better than last in large part due to the WPO ...agreed.

[DavisStraight]

31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Cancel winter. 
 

I just ordered my Ego snowblower. Arrives on Wednesday.   Won’t be using it much 

Electric Dave?

[DJln491]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro cuts west into PA. 

Rainstorm

How many of those have we seen the last couple years.  Hate those

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Electric Dave?

Yup.  I have a couple of their tools and the batteries are interchangeable.  Definitely curious how it handles a N ORH county winter. 
My old Crapsman snowblower still runs but I want to move to electric. Less maintenance etc.  

[ariof]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Except for the breezy 50s on Xmas.

We can lock that in years in advance.

[ariof]

So at 138H the 12Z models have

BUF (Euro)
BAF (Canadian)
Flat and off NJ (ICON, GFS)

Maybe Charlie Brown will kick the football right through the goalposts this year … but I doubt it!

[Prismshine Productions]

The ability of the northeast and more specifically SNE to find the wrong trend has been uncanny the last 3 years.
I know it’s wicked early and nobody will lose sleep over this because of that, but it’s still pretty incredible 

I had to deal with that year after year in the Southeast... You have any idea how many coastals I have watched NW-Trended their way into an Apps Rubber and seeing social media show beautiful picks from Gatlinburg&Asheville while I am stuck at 32.5 and rain or get screwed by a warm nose and have IP/ZR? For me it is an *expectation* to see it near go time even 12 hours out by being NAM'ed so for me it is "believe it when the flakes are falling".


(Sorry if this sounds insensitive to anyone, I'm just freaking numb to seeing it and can relate to the disappointment)

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Spanks45]

58 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Everyone is in the believe it until see it mode. Zero expectations. 

Add me to that list......No expectations this year and any year moving forward. I will celebrate dustings like they are blizzards, LOL.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, ariof said:

So at 138H the 12Z models have

BUF (Euro)
BAF (Canadian)
Flat and off NJ (ICON, GFS)

Maybe Charlie Brown will kick the football right through the goalposts this year … but I doubt it!

I am leaning towards a flatter solution but not committing to anything until at least Monday. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, kazimirkai said:

I'm in the snow hole SE of the Catskills and we get the down slope warming during all the NW cold air outbreaks and inland storm tracks that's only just starting to show up on climatology maps. It's annoying

We lose out from downsloping too, but we also save a lot of snow, both in the air and on the ground, through CAD.  Maybe the clown maps don't account for that?

[ORH_wxman]

Prob need to start a December thread but EPS not backing down on the PAC pattern. Really consistent with holding that ridge axis right over the west coast

 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob need to start a December thread but EPS not backing down on the PAC pattern. Really consistent with holding that ridge axis right over the west coast

 

 

I think after whatever happens next week, my gut says we stein for several days with the cold, and then wait until maybe after the 5th or so. 

[Snowcrazed71]

39 minutes ago, ariof said:

So at 138H the 12Z models have

BUF (Euro)
BAF (Canadian)
Flat and off NJ (ICON, GFS)

Maybe Charlie Brown will kick the football right through the goalposts this year … but I doubt it!

Well if you look at everything from The last 2 years as far as who to trust more, I would say go in the middle, but it is still a week out. All I care about is that we don't have a snowstorm on Thanksgiving itself.

[tamarack]

22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I am leaning towards a flatter solution but not committing to anything until at least Monday. 

So "right thru the goalposts" but under the crossbar?  
Looks like our first snow here will be while we're in SNJ where it will be RA.  Maybe we can get caught in a storm when we return on Dec 3 or 4. 
On our first visit a few weeks after they moved there from DEC in Jan 2015, we delayed the northerly drive from Jan 27th to the 28th, thus avoiding the 30"+ blizzard in SNE.  Got home about 6 PM to find 20" of single digit sand that wouldn't pack underfoot but made our feet slide sideways - missed the most powerful January snowstorm that has hit where I was living at the time.  

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think after whatever happens next week, my gut says we stein for several days with the cold, and then wait until maybe after the 5th or so. 

Yeah that seems the most likely. Though can’t rule out something smaller embedded around the TPV. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that seems the most likely. Though can’t rule out something smaller embedded around the TPV. 

Yeah can always get something zipping by to raise the holiday moods. 

[brooklynwx99]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think after whatever happens next week, my gut says we stein for several days with the cold, and then wait until maybe after the 5th or so. 

models start bringing the baroclinic zone northward with more precip around the 5th. luckily we should have a cold airmass established unlike with the Thanksgiving storm

[weathafella]

A dank chilly day this time of the year is perfect as we take our final steps to winter in the next 2 weeks.  We never really got there the past 2 years….

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah can always get something zipping by to raise the holiday dongs

Deck the balls?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

A dank chilly day this time of the year is perfect as we take our final steps to winter in the next 2 weeks.  We never really got there the past 2 years….

So you’re confident we get there this season?

[alex]

A nice snowy afternoon 

 

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So you’re confident we get there this season?

Yes-at least for a spell.  I like frequent melt downs which is almost a guarantee.  Snow isn’t as much fun when you’re old.

[dryslot]

50/50 split GFS/Euro for next week and there you have it, Inside the BM special.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yup.  I have a couple of their tools and the batteries are interchangeable.  Definitely curious how it handles a N ORH county winter. 
My old Crapsman snowblower still runs but I want to move to electric. Less maintenance etc.  

I want to get one next year, but I'll wait until I move to Maine. I'll sell the gas one, EGO seems to have the most powerful electric tools.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I want to get one next year, but I'll wait until I move to Maine. I'll sell the gas one, EGO seems to have the most powerful electric tools.

The market for gas snowblowers now make them a bargain.  I bought a nice Ariens 2 years ago mainly because it was way less expensive vs 2 years prior.  But rechargeable battery operated with charge batteries in reserve is definitley the way to go.  I may try to sell my Ariens after the season and get a comparable rechargeable for future years

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

50/50 split GFS/Euro for next week and there you have it, Inside the BM special.

Antecedent airmass blows though 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Antecedent airmass blows though 

You’ll meh your way to a few inches most likely….  6 days away, a lot can change. 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Antecedent airmass blows though 

It works for the inland areas to the foothills into the elevation areas away from the coast, That would be climo favored this early.

[dryslot]

Have to wait and see where the tuesday system ends up before late weeks.

[moneypitmike]

47 minutes ago, dryslot said:

50/50 split GFS/Euro for next week and there you have it, Inside the BM special.

I'll be at Pti2---hoping for the best.