Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Go Kart Mozart]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3-4 weeks out is more right than wrong. People make big money trying to forecast that. Otherwise, there would be no work there. It’s not like batting .800 but there is skill there.
 

The last two years it’s been way more right than wrong. But we had good MJO constructive interference. This one time we had destructive interference. 

I recall reading somewhere that weeks 3-4 are at about 55-60%?  I could be wrong, maybe you have stats on that.  In any case my gut tells me that they have not been way more right than wrong the last two years...good Lord...how many beautiful LR maps has BrooklynWX posted over the past two winters that never came to fruition?

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is a total whiff. Flat. Lot of uncertainty around that Tday system. I think one thing is more clear though…the airmass is going to be marginal. A few days ago we had a stronger push SE from TPV which made the antecedent airmass better. We don’t see that as much now. Could still change, but if we do get an event, you’d favor elevations with that airmass. 
 

[512high]

.48" since midnight @ 43 gusty

loader plow hooked up

others in standby still have squeegee mops from last season lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nice drink

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nice drink

Underrepresented in CT though. Everyone in WCT was in the 1.5-2.5 range. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

48 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

You do need cold for snow.


.

Trough too far east and nao too crushing. Cold and dry. 

[MJO812]

Euro cuts west into PA. 

Rainstorm

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro cuts west into PA. 

Rainstorm

Well, @WinterWolfwill be happy to know that Scott's November forecast is saved at the 11th hour!!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is a total whiff. Flat. Lot of uncertainty around that Tday system. I think one thing is more clear though…the airmass is going to be marginal. A few days ago we had a stronger push SE from TPV which made the antecedent airmass better. We don’t see that as much now. Could still change, but if we do get an event, you’d favor elevations with that airmass. 
 

The ability of the northeast and more specifically SNE to find the wrong trend has been uncanny the last 3 years.

I know it’s wicked early and nobody will lose sleep over this because of that, but it’s still pretty incredible 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Underrepresented in CT though. Everyone in WCT was in the 1.5-2.5 range. 

AEMATT?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, @WinterWolfwil be happy to know that Scott's November forecast is saved at the 11th hour!!

I don’t blame people for kind of being at the point that they won’t believe the positive until it’s here. 
 

This threat is pretty much carbon copy, rinse, repeat of what we’ve seen for 3 years.

 

Looked great a few days ago, now the major driver of the positive solutions is gone, and we’re left with varying degrees of suck.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The ability of the northeast and more specifically SNE to find the wrong trend has been uncanny the last 3 years.

I know it’s wicked early and nobody will lose sleep over this because of that, but it’s still pretty incredible 

People have to remember not to lock in 7-10 days out. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

People have to remember not to lock in 7-10 days out. 

I don’t think anyone did, I will certainly always be skeptical before Jan given my location, but my point stands.

It got worse, not better, which is what we’ve seen almost exclusively for 3 years 

That Boston snow stat is incredible, was the last 4” snow there the Jan 22 Blizzard?

[MJO812]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

AEMATT?

Yea. George must of made that map overnight.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t think anyone did, I will certainly always be skeptical before Jan given my location, but my point stands.

It got worse, not better, which is what we’ve seen almost exclusively for 3 years 

I can’t get mad at something looking worse from a few weenie progs over a week out in late November. All these solutions from flat to rain into Maine are on the table.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t blame people for kind of being at the point that they won’t believe the positive until it’s here. 
 

This threat is pretty much carbon copy, rinse, repeat of what we’ve seen for 3 years.

 

Looked great a few days ago, now the major driver of the positive solutions is gone, and we’re left with varying degrees of suck.

I have come into to this season with the "believe when see" mindset. People forget how good things looked going into last December and it completely evaporated. I don't expect this December to be that warm, but point remains.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t think anyone did, I will certainly always be skeptical before Jan given my location, but my point stands.

It got worse, not better, which is what we’ve seen almost exclusively for 3 years 

You get a run that jackpots an area... of course its going to get worse after that though.  Like you aren't going to run 7 days of jackpot run after jackpot run.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t think anyone did, I will certainly always be skeptical before Jan given my location, but my point stands.

It got worse, not better, which is what we’ve seen almost exclusively for 3 years 

That Boston snow stat is incredible, was the last 4” snow there the Jan 22 Blizzard?

No later Feb

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

You get a run that jackpots an area... of course its going to get worse after that though.  Like you aren't going to run 7 days of jackpot run and jackpot run.

Exactly 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t blame people for kind of being at the point that they won’t believe the positive until it’s here. 
 

This threat is pretty much carbon copy, rinse, repeat of what we’ve seen for 3 years.

 

Looked great a few days ago, now the major driver of the positive solutions is gone, and we’re left with varying degrees of suck.

Everyone is in the believe it until see it mode. Zero expectations. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have come into to this season with the "believe when see" mindset. People forget how good things looked going into last December and it completely evaporated. I don't expect this December to be that warm, but point remains.

 

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Everyone is in the believe it until see it mode. Zero expectations. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

People have to remember not to lock in 7-10 days out. 

Esp in November. Lol

Even the euro is a decent shot of snow over interior N of pike. It’s hard to snow in the CP and lowlands that early. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Cancel winter. 
 

I just ordered my Ego snowblower. Arrives on Wednesday.   Won’t be using it much 

[TheMainer]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Life will be good north of the 45th parallel hopefully the next few weeks. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Esp in November. Lol

Even the euro is a decent shot of snow over interior N of pike. It’s hard to snow in the CP and lowlands that early. 

I would take any type of residual cover from that and run. 

[dendrite]

Euro would be a mess here Thanksgiving evening. Snow to garbage to rain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

People have to remember not to lock in 7-10 days out. 

Except for the breezy 50s on Xmas.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro would be a mess here Thanksgiving evening. Snow to garbage to rain. 

Let’s shut down 93.

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have come into to this season with the "believe when see" mindset. People forget how good things looked going into last December and it completely evaporated. I don't expect this December to be that warm, but point remains.

Last December we were relying on a huge progged NAO block. Those are inherently less stable than N PAC pattern…they have a more stochastic behavior. That’s also probably why you hear a lot of Mets say “I’ll roll the dice with a great PAC look any day”…those tend to verify more than random huge NAO blocks. Of course, if we actually get a great NAO block that pins a TPV in SE Canada, we will clean up, but it’s hard to trust model progs that show that. 
 

Right now, we’re relying on an NAO block for next week as we wait for the PAC to improve further. So it’s not surprising to see these shifts in the SE Canada look that make it harder to snow here. Esp in November. 
 

I’m cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of December given the vastly improved N PAC. 
 

It’s funny…I went back and looked at some of the progs for last December and even the ones where we had some PNA ridging trying to poke up into EPO domain, we had a vortex over the WPO domain…it was always a turd in the punchbowl lurking beneath the surface.