Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[SnowGoose69]

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

00 had a massive cutter that buried Chicago.  

That was the winter they had like 35 inches of snow in Dec then had 5 or 6 inches the entire remainder of the winter

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

More interesting means colder and drier…

[weatherwiz]

That is one helluva change from 18z versus 12z in that H5 evolution mid-to-late week holy cow. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

More interesting means colder and drier…

i know we've been burnt over the last few winters but come onnnnnn

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

come onnnnnn

Where’d the system go?

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That is one helluva change from 18z versus 12z in that H5 evolution mid-to-late week holy cow. 

right? that -NAO really slows down the flow. I think we want to see a more hung back vort overall, but seeing the confluence trend stronger is also important

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where’d the system go?

offshore. the overall synoptic setup was more favorable... Wiz is saying the same thing

[Damage In Tolland]

December 1989 here we come ?

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

right? that -NAO really slows down the flow. I think we want to see a more hung back vort overall, but seeing the confluence trend stronger is also important

What I'm also worried about too is and this is exactly what you said the other day...now we could run into issues where the vorts are shredded  I probably jinxed that because I said the look didn't really seem like something where that would happen.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

offshore. the overall synoptic setup was more favorable... Wiz is saying the same thing

12z Ukie had it squashed in a fast W'ly flow too and now the 18z Gfs and Icon (probably, looking at its 120 hr run) as well. Next up, 18z Euro.

[Typhoon Tip]

the nao is actually overbearing on this version ( gfs ) - if fact, that may be part of why it has been flatter than the other guidance since it started selling the bigger nao yesterday.   may or not be so -

but that's suppression

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z Ukie had it squashed in a fast W'ly flow too and now the 18z Gfs and Icon (probably, looking at its 120 hr run) as well. Next up, 18z Euro.

The euro and cmc are also faster with ejecting the energy from the sw for this system. They also aren’t very strong with the Tuesday system 

[Typhoon Tip]

the over all mass field handling between the date line and south of greenland is idiosyncratically different in the gfs.  it's conserving a flatter rna signal, and that is in fact a constructive interference with the -nao phase states.  so..it's just stronger with the nao because of it's flatter pna.

the positive pna is technically unstable -aam load and usually doesn't last if it is in tandem with a -nao.  the stable orientation is a +pna/+nao is the eventual rest state - this is technically more true in jf than nd, but it's vaguely there ...it comes down to in situ wave lengths.  since we appear to be handling longer wlen like it were already in mid winter ...than the shoe fits.  

euro stronger pna = weaker nao = less suppression

gef weaker pna = stronger nao = more suppression

[Damage In Tolland]

That’s Dec 89

Cue the 3 posters ;

At least the pond ice will be great for skating! 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the over all mass field handling between the date line and south of greenland is idiosyncratically different in the gfs.  it's conserving a flatter rna signal, and that is in fact a constructive interference with the -nao phase states.  so..it's just stronger with the nao because of it's flatter pna.

the positive pna is technically unstable -aam load and usually doesn't last if it is in tandem with a -nao.  the stable orientation is a +pna/+nao is the eventual rest state - this is technically more true in jf than nd, but it's vaguely there ...it comes down to in situ wave lengths.  since we appear to be handling longer wlen like it were already in mid winter ...than the shoe fits.  

euro stronger pna = weaker nao = less suppression

gef weaker pna = stronger nao = more suppression

FWIW the NAO pays off as it decays later in the run:

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro and cmc are also faster with ejecting the energy from the sw for this system. They also aren’t very strong with the Tuesday system 

Cmc as recently as Thursday's 0z showed nothing for Thanksgiving. May have been the first to be right only to go dark before maybe correcting again. Hope not.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s Dec 89

Cue the 3 posters ;

At least the pond ice will be great for skating! 

We didn’t start the fire. Blame it on the rain.

It’s a sign.

[SnowGoose69]

we all know models have this right where we want it right now

[George001]

Gfs is a blizzard for December 5th

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We didn’t start the fire. Blame it on the rain.

It’s a sign.

Drought and fire.. one rain event then back to drought and fire .. but with pond skating allowing fire fighters to get to woods quicker on skates 

[ariof]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Gfs is a blizzard for December 5th

I'd trade the whiff next week for what the GFS is smoking on the 5th.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, ariof said:

I'd trade the whiff next week for what the GFS is smoking on the 5th.

Early December is going to have a much better antecedent airmass I think for any threats. I think the coast would struggle mightily on these Tday/Friday solutions where the storm gets close enough. 
 

Still 6-7 days out though on next week’s threat so too early to be super confident either direction. It was colder this run but also flat…but if you can drive the cold in and then trend the shortwave sharper, then we could end up with a more widespread winter wx solution. 

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Early December is going to have a much better antecedent airmass I think for any threats. I think the coast would struggle mightily on these Tday/Friday solutions where the storm gets close enough. 
 

Still 6-7 days out though on next week’s threat so too early to be super confident either direction. It was colder this run but also flat…but if you can drive the cold in and then trend the shortwave sharper, then we could end up with a more widespread winter wx solution. 

that's why I think holding the shortwave back with stronger confluence makes more sense. the GFS tried but it was just a bit too sloppy. I like its general evolution

[ineedsnow]

What could go wrong? 

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's why I think holding the shortwave back with stronger confluence makes more sense. the GFS tried but it was just a bit too sloppy. I like its general evolution

18z Euro looks kind of interesting at 144. Antecedent airmass isn’t great but cold enough for wet snow for a chunk of SNE and NY state..esp away from coast. Ideally, we’d like to trend both that TPV push E and SE and the shortwave a bit sharper at the same time  

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z Euro looks kind of interesting at 144. Antecedent airmass isn’t great but cold enough for wet snow for a chunk of SNE and NY state..esp away from coast. Ideally, we’d like to trend both that TPV push E and SE and the shortwave a bit sharper at the same time  

 

also, I agree with your point about the first week of Dec... there's a signal for a large 50/50 ULL and decaying block over the Davis Strait. climo is better and cold air is more firmly in place. this is probably the main window to watch if I had to pick one at this juncture

[Damage In Tolland]

Why are Mets also not acknowledging that a suppressed cold , dry pattern is not possible based on the look? Both options seem possible 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are Mets also not acknowledging that a suppressed cold , dry pattern is not possible based on the look? Both options seem possible 

It is def possible but that’s always a risk when you have arctic cold pushing well south. I’m less worried in early December though when the baroclinic zone is much stronger near the coast and also further north versus, say, mid-January or something. 

You can’t really predict it very well though since it’s so dependent on individual shortwaves diving into the mean trough and the models can’t see those yet. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It is def possible but that’s always a risk when you have arctic cold pushing well south. I’m less worried in early December though when the baroclinic zone is much stronger near the coast and also further north versus, say, mid-January or something. 

You can’t really predict it very well though since it’s so dependent on individual shortwaves diving into the mean trough and the models can’t see those yet. 

I hope the snowy outcome is correct . But if you look at that setup .. dry and cold is very possible 

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

What could go wrong? 

Let's goooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!