SnowGoose69 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: 00 had a massive cutter that buried Chicago. That was the winter they had like 35 inches of snow in Dec then had 5 or 6 inches the entire remainder of the winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 More interesting means colder and drier… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 That is one helluva change from 18z versus 12z in that H5 evolution mid-to-late week holy cow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: More interesting means colder and drier… i know we've been burnt over the last few winters but come onnnnnn 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: come onnnnnn Where’d the system go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Just now, weatherwiz said: That is one helluva change from 18z versus 12z in that H5 evolution mid-to-late week holy cow. right? that -NAO really slows down the flow. I think we want to see a more hung back vort overall, but seeing the confluence trend stronger is also important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Where’d the system go? offshore. the overall synoptic setup was more favorable... Wiz is saying the same thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 December 1989 here we come ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: right? that -NAO really slows down the flow. I think we want to see a more hung back vort overall, but seeing the confluence trend stronger is also important What I'm also worried about too is and this is exactly what you said the other day...now we could run into issues where the vorts are shredded I probably jinxed that because I said the look didn't really seem like something where that would happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: offshore. the overall synoptic setup was more favorable... Wiz is saying the same thing 12z Ukie had it squashed in a fast W'ly flow too and now the 18z Gfs and Icon (probably, looking at its 120 hr run) as well. Next up, 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 the nao is actually overbearing on this version ( gfs ) - if fact, that may be part of why it has been flatter than the other guidance since it started selling the bigger nao yesterday. may or not be so - but that's suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12z Ukie had it squashed in a fast W'ly flow too and now the 18z Gfs and Icon (probably, looking at its 120 hr run) as well. Next up, 18z Euro. The euro and cmc are also faster with ejecting the energy from the sw for this system. They also aren’t very strong with the Tuesday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 the over all mass field handling between the date line and south of greenland is idiosyncratically different in the gfs. it's conserving a flatter rna signal, and that is in fact a constructive interference with the -nao phase states. so..it's just stronger with the nao because of it's flatter pna. the positive pna is technically unstable -aam load and usually doesn't last if it is in tandem with a -nao. the stable orientation is a +pna/+nao is the eventual rest state - this is technically more true in jf than nd, but it's vaguely there ...it comes down to in situ wave lengths. since we appear to be handling longer wlen like it were already in mid winter ...than the shoe fits. euro stronger pna = weaker nao = less suppression gef weaker pna = stronger nao = more suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 That’s Dec 89 Cue the 3 posters ; At least the pond ice will be great for skating! 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: the over all mass field handling between the date line and south of greenland is idiosyncratically different in the gfs. it's conserving a flatter rna signal, and that is in fact a constructive interference with the -nao phase states. so..it's just stronger with the nao because of it's flatter pna. the positive pna is technically unstable -aam load and usually doesn't last if it is in tandem with a -nao. the stable orientation is a +pna/+nao is the eventual rest state - this is technically more true in jf than nd, but it's vaguely there ...it comes down to in situ wave lengths. since we appear to be handling longer wlen like it were already in mid winter ...than the shoe fits. euro stronger pna = weaker nao = less suppression gef weaker pna = stronger nao = more suppression FWIW the NAO pays off as it decays later in the run: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The euro and cmc are also faster with ejecting the energy from the sw for this system. They also aren’t very strong with the Tuesday system Cmc as recently as Thursday's 0z showed nothing for Thanksgiving. May have been the first to be right only to go dark before maybe correcting again. Hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s Dec 89 Cue the 3 posters ; At least the pond ice will be great for skating! We didn’t start the fire. Blame it on the rain. It’s a sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 we all know models have this right where we want it right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 Gfs is a blizzard for December 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: We didn’t start the fire. Blame it on the rain. It’s a sign. Drought and fire.. one rain event then back to drought and fire .. but with pond skating allowing fire fighters to get to woods quicker on skates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Gfs is a blizzard for December 5th I'd trade the whiff next week for what the GFS is smoking on the 5th. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 12 minutes ago, ariof said: I'd trade the whiff next week for what the GFS is smoking on the 5th. Early December is going to have a much better antecedent airmass I think for any threats. I think the coast would struggle mightily on these Tday/Friday solutions where the storm gets close enough. Still 6-7 days out though on next week’s threat so too early to be super confident either direction. It was colder this run but also flat…but if you can drive the cold in and then trend the shortwave sharper, then we could end up with a more widespread winter wx solution. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 22 Share Posted November 22 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Early December is going to have a much better antecedent airmass I think for any threats. I think the coast would struggle mightily on these Tday/Friday solutions where the storm gets close enough. Still 6-7 days out though on next week’s threat so too early to be super confident either direction. It was colder this run but also flat…but if you can drive the cold in and then trend the shortwave sharper, then we could end up with a more widespread winter wx solution. that's why I think holding the shortwave back with stronger confluence makes more sense. the GFS tried but it was just a bit too sloppy. I like its general evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 What could go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that's why I think holding the shortwave back with stronger confluence makes more sense. the GFS tried but it was just a bit too sloppy. I like its general evolution 18z Euro looks kind of interesting at 144. Antecedent airmass isn’t great but cold enough for wet snow for a chunk of SNE and NY state..esp away from coast. Ideally, we’d like to trend both that TPV push E and SE and the shortwave a bit sharper at the same time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z Euro looks kind of interesting at 144. Antecedent airmass isn’t great but cold enough for wet snow for a chunk of SNE and NY state..esp away from coast. Ideally, we’d like to trend both that TPV push E and SE and the shortwave a bit sharper at the same time also, I agree with your point about the first week of Dec... there's a signal for a large 50/50 ULL and decaying block over the Davis Strait. climo is better and cold air is more firmly in place. this is probably the main window to watch if I had to pick one at this juncture 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Why are Mets also not acknowledging that a suppressed cold , dry pattern is not possible based on the look? Both options seem possible 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Why are Mets also not acknowledging that a suppressed cold , dry pattern is not possible based on the look? Both options seem possible It is def possible but that’s always a risk when you have arctic cold pushing well south. I’m less worried in early December though when the baroclinic zone is much stronger near the coast and also further north versus, say, mid-January or something. You can’t really predict it very well though since it’s so dependent on individual shortwaves diving into the mean trough and the models can’t see those yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It is def possible but that’s always a risk when you have arctic cold pushing well south. I’m less worried in early December though when the baroclinic zone is much stronger near the coast and also further north versus, say, mid-January or something. You can’t really predict it very well though since it’s so dependent on individual shortwaves diving into the mean trough and the models can’t see those yet. I hope the snowy outcome is correct . But if you look at that setup .. dry and cold is very possible 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 23 Share Posted November 23 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: What could go wrong? Let's goooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now