Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lets see. Ya never know. Anything can happen. Just have to believe and have hope the ball bounces our way at some point. 

I think it will this year. 

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, cardinalland said:

i would also like to see this big patch of bare ground fill in before we really start talking snow to the coast. it's kinda ridiculous for late Nov

 

This might help lol

[brooklynwx99]

my initial impression of late Nov into early Dec so far is that the persistently +AAM that's being forecasted combined with +EAMT event is extending the Pacific jet more than is typical of La Nina. extensions are often favorable for us, and I believe these factors are overriding the largely unfavorable MJO passage

this general pattern favors +EAMT into early Dec, allowing for a persistently extended Pacific jet that leads to an Aleutian trough. the MJO isn't a silver bullet, and i do think we're seeing a break in the typically strong MJO correlation

[cleetussnow]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my initial impression of late Nov into early Dec so far is that the persistently +AAM that's being forecasted combined with +EAMT event is extending the Pacific jet more than is typical of La Nina. extensions are often favorable for us, and I believe these factors are overriding the largely unfavorable MJO passage

this general pattern favors +EAMT into early Dec, allowing for a persistently extended Pacific jet that leads to an Aleutian trough. the MJO isn't a silver bullet, and i do think we're seeing a break in the typically strong MJO correlation

How long can that trough in the east hang on?  

[WxWatcher007]

49 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Up to this point for sure…but let’s see how this evolves over the next 7 days.  There’s some potential here. 

Yeah, this could go either way. This far out we’re just narrowing the envelope of possibilities. Our horrific half decade doesn’t factor into whether any discrete window this season produces. We definitely need a good cold source though, especially this time of year. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my initial impression of late Nov into early Dec so far is that the persistently +AAM that's being forecasted combined with +EAMT event is extending the Pacific jet more than is typical of La Nina. extensions are often favorable for us, and I believe these factors are overriding the largely unfavorable MJO passage

this general pattern favors +EAMT into early Dec, allowing for a persistently extended Pacific jet that leads to an Aleutian trough. the MJO isn't a silver bullet, and i do think we're seeing a break in the typically strong MJO correlation

So much attention gets paid to the NAO, but I would much rather have this combo. I would consider this probably a neutral-ish NAO but I feel like if we added a -NAO to this (like a more pronounced -NAO) that could end up screwing us in a couple ways. This is about as perfect of a look you can ask for with cross-polar flow right into our region. 

Also notice the trough axis...this is vastly different than anything we've seen the last few winters, even the periods where things looked "good"... there were still signals of the trough axis being too far west into the OV which opened the room for cutters. You're not getting a cutter in this look. 

Also, you get any southern stream energy to phase in with any northern stream energy...you're going to have some big storm potential with the degree of moisture that would be coming from the bath waters of the Gulf. 

[George001]

12 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

How long can that trough in the east hang on?  

That’s the big question as to how this winter will go. I’d like to see 3 weeks minimum 

[Typhoon Tip]

be an interesting eps coup for a week out over the gefs, because the latter's all but oblivious to next friday. 

i have to say, there's a new +delta emerging in the pna coming from the eps and geps ... it's gained more coherency over 3 consecutive cycles.  this 12z run is a flat out mode change at this point.  

it should be noted, when +d(pna)'s take place during or post recent -epo's ... that is the typical prelude before cold loading along the mid latitude continent.  in basic concept, that's establishing baroclinic/ambient polar boundary, thus enhancing storm genesis potential ... and dopamine gets injected..  heh.   anyway, usually along the colorado - nyc axis.  

however,  the gefs is much more neutral with the pna - even as of this 12z this morning's run it's not having it.   not sure i trust that given the super synoptic ( and for lack of better word, 'intangible' ) trends.  plus, the operational gfs actually came half way back more coherent with the 29th system over it's 00z run.  something is there, and it's winter of profile...   it should also be noted that the gfs had no problem carrying a 29th system through yesterday's runs.  so it has a history of abetting the idea there.  

this is a sub-index scaled event. it's upside is probably limited to moderate in scope and scale. but, those are more apt to make us suffer some stochastic model handling.  i want to start a thread but i'd like to see all three ens means at least trending in the gefs.  it's the first real 'winter pattern' event trackable of the season and is worth of a separated discussion imo and confidence but in deference to being so early in the year  ...  heh

 

[Typhoon Tip]

something else i wanna add.  it's low consideration but non-zero.   there's a predecessor system around the 26/27th that scoots up as an eastern lake cutter, .. up the st l seaway. it's trended into an important system.   one aspect of which ... it appears now capable ( as modeled ) of laying down a near-by cryosphere through ontario.   that's actually a help in modulating low level cold supply.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

something else i wanna add.  it's low consideration but non-zero.   there's a predecessor system around the 26/27th that scoots up as an eastern lake cutter, .. up the st l seaway. it's trended into an important system.   one aspect of which ... it appears now capable ( as modeled ) in laying down a near-by cryosphere through ontario.   that's actually a help in modulating low level cold supply.

Yeah it should help fill in the huge bare spot in snow cover over Ontario.

The extended range almost looks like a cold El Nino pattern with a big Aleutian low and corresponding PNA ridge....couple with a -WPO over the top....we'll see how that actually verifies, but if it's correct, then we're going to be in a cold pattern right through mid-December at minimum....it's not exactly an unstable pattern if it sets up. I'm still skeptical of these amazing N PAC looks on model guidance, but at the very minimum, we're not dealing with overtly hostile variations that we've had over the past couple winters.

[ineedsnow]

Just had a 2 minute shower mixed with ice pellets.. not even showing up on radar

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it should help fill in the huge bare spot in snow cover over Ontario.

The extended range almost looks like a cold El Nino pattern with a big Aleutian low and corresponding PNA ridge....couple with a -WPO over the top....we'll see how that actually verifies, but if it's correct, then we're going to be in a cold pattern right through mid-December at minimum....it's not exactly an unstable pattern if it sets up. I'm still skeptical of these amazing N PAC looks on model guidance, but at the very minimum, we're not dealing with overtly hostile variations that we've had over the past couple winters.

Is the WP the CPC calculates different from the WPO? Trying to get back into this stuff and I vaguely remember discussions from a while back that the two are different. 

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

something else i wanna add.  it's low consideration but non-zero.   there's a predecessor system around the 26/27th that scoots up as an eastern lake cutter, .. up the st l seaway. it's trended into an important system.   one aspect of which ... it appears now capable ( as modeled ) in laying down a near-by cryosphere through ontario.   that's actually a help in modulating low level cold supply.

yeah, the stronger that gets, the better

if you can nose that -NAO more into central Canada you can also pop transient HP

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He didn’t do that well. He posted he had an inch or so . Just to his NW went Hammertime 

It was elevation dependent in that area. 6"+ in all direction from Walt D, including east and south, above 1100ft.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He didn’t do that well. He posted he had an inch or so . Just to his NW went Hammertime 

General area I meant. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my initial impression of late Nov into early Dec so far is that the persistently +AAM that's being forecasted combined with +EAMT event is extending the Pacific jet more than is typical of La Nina. extensions are often favorable for us, and I believe these factors are overriding the largely unfavorable MJO passage

this general pattern favors +EAMT into early Dec, allowing for a persistently extended Pacific jet that leads to an Aleutian trough. the MJO isn't a silver bullet, and i do think we're seeing a break in the typically strong MJO correlation

It starts getting into favorable zones which maybe helps that Bering sea ridge. But yeah good illustration there of the PAC jet extending, but not across the entire ocean like we’ve seen before.

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks great. Weeklies push the not so favorable look to mid month. 
 

I’m inclined to toss weeklies as MJO goes more favorable too. But I’m still nervous it could break down. But I’ll say this, that ensemble look is not what I expected.

[CoastalWx]

However, what happens when this weenie torque event fades? 

[CoastalWx]

Also the current MJO wave is not currently strong, so yeah could easily get overpowered.

[CoastalWx]

Would be ironic to be cold and stein lol.

[CoastalWx]

At the airport coming back from vacation so looking at stuff now finally. Man would love to take advantage of this look into early December.

[weathafella]

The thing about the pattern breaking down sometime in December should be the understanding that we almost never go wire to wire this early.  

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would be ironic to be cold and stein lol.

That’s been my fear 

[tamarack]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The thing about the pattern breaking down sometime in December should be the understanding that we almost never go wire to wire this early.  

And the Grinch is waiting.

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The thing about the pattern breaking down sometime in December should be the understanding that we almost never go wire to wire this early.  

95 and 00 only 2 I remember that were cold the whole way and even 95 I think the final week was somewhat mild.

[DavisStraight]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The thing about the pattern breaking down sometime in December should be the understanding that we almost never go wire to wire this early.  

Wire to wire would be great, doesn't happen often.

[wxeyeNH]

38.8F  Catpaws.   Of course, no one except me would go outside with the spot light on to look at my car shield window to determine this.  Who else has ever done this?  Will I flip tonight?  Maybe? 

[weathafella]

33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

95 and 00 only 2 I remember that were cold the whole way and even 95 I think the final week was somewhat mild.

00 had a massive cutter that buried Chicago.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

The thing about the pattern breaking down sometime in December should be the understanding that we almost never go wire to wire this early.  

Or…because our winters are resorted to a couple good stretches, it may be a while until another favorable look returns if we don’t cash on this one. 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS has a much more interesting solution for next week... holds the main wave back and allows the block to go to work more. we've seen confluence and the -NAO trend stronger, which is nice to see