Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Last night was odd in how the temperature kept rising on gusty northeast winds, up to 49 at PSM around 7z this morning.

yeah this system was inverted ( laterally ...) all along in the models.   it's a diving -d(nao) under pinning low event, that is arriving on the heels of an antecedent warm pattern - consequentially, there was a defined dearth in cold leading the system environment.  the cold is on the south side of the circulation because of that anomaly.

and ... what east and/or northeast trajectories there were( you know all this ... ) ... gom buoys are reporting 50 to 52 ssts

it's just is was a typical gloomy november deal

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to need things to go just about perfect for Thanksgiving for anyone outside of the interior/higher elevations to get accumulating snow. 

Yeah, that threat has been dying a slow death the last couple days, no surprising.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, that threat has been dying a slow death the last couple days, no surprising.

I hate these stupid setups which are nothing more than just cold fronts moving through with one or multiple waves developing along them. Unless you have latitude or elevation, so much has to go right with these. There is still potential the front/wave are suppressed far enough south to give hope, but the baroclinic zone would almost certainly be just off the coast which is going to about cook anyone outside of far interior/elevation. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I hate these stupid setups which are nothing more than just cold fronts moving through with one or multiple waves developing along them. Unless you have latitude or elevation, so much has to go right with these. There is still potential the front/wave are suppressed far enough south to give hope, but the baroclinic zone would almost certainly be just off the coast which is going to about cook anyone outside of far interior/elevation. 

That’s ok…setting the table for just beyond. We can wait a tad longer. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, that threat has been dying a slow death the last couple days, no surprising.

hmm... depends on what source one is using?

this is the best ensemble presentation for that 29th thing to date, 00z eps mean.    part of the problem with this event in guidance, other than that tiny little in "180" for time range ...  is that it is sub-index scaled.  the models will be more stochastic with small domain space events than they will with large mass field -directed majors.   in other words, wait it out a couple of days is kind of obvious

 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

That’s ok…setting the table for just beyond. We can wait a tad longer. 

This is true...this certainly has potential to set things up behind it. In that pattern behind it we would have two potential ways to get storms

1) Clippers diving southeast 

2) Miller B's

[iceman1]

2 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

A few flakes mixed in here.  

all rain here 

 

[iceman1]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not true. I said under 1” which was correct here 

1.60 inches here

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Snow level about 400' in NJ.  Crazy seeing rain on the cam at Jay and snow here. though only a dusting.  Above 1000' in NW Jersey by ski resort has 6-12.

Where I grew up in NNJ is at 700, probably a couple inches there.

Had 0.39" thru 7 AM, about ~0.2" since.  Still haven't seen a flake this season.

[iceman1]

at least i can go out and sit by a fire in my fire pit with a few drinks after this rain something we haven't been able to do for the past 2 months.

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS still trying for tonight here 1" qpf but very marginal temps

[Lava Rock]

18 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Where I grew up in NNJ is at 700, probably a couple inches there.

Had 0.39" thru 7 AM, about ~0.2" since.  Still haven't seen a flake this season.

Most delayed first flake ever?

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS still trying for tonight here 1" qpf but very marginal temps

12z nam backed things up a bit too - not sure if the graphical presentation gets that far west, but the fous for logan is an inch of cat paw white rain

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z nam backed things up a bit too - not sure if the graphical presentation is that far west, but the fous for logan is an inch of cat paw white rain

hoping to get a coating here.. I think being over a 1,000 will help.. just need heavy enough precip 

[Patrick-02540]

23 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

at least i can go out and sit by a fire in my fire pit with a few drinks after this rain something we haven't been able to do for the past 2 months.

Exactly.  I have a massive debris burn pile going back to early September.  Gonna head out there tomorrow afternoon and start my barrel incinerator for the small stuff.  Will be too windy for an open fire, though. 

[WinterWolf]

49 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah, that threat has been dying a slow death the last couple days, no surprising.

I’d have to agree with Tip on this.  It’s been off and on the last few days(it’s there and it’s not), so nothing is dying if modeling doesn’t know exactly how to handle things at a week out in time.  Patience. 

[MJO812]

Flat for now

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z GFS still trying for tonight here 1" qpf but very marginal temps

Yea it did so well with the heavy snows in swct overnight. I’m still shoveling…

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea it did so well with the heavy snows in swct overnight. I’m still shoveling…

Staying safe we hope

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is true...this certainly has potential to set things up behind it. In that pattern behind it we would have two potential ways to get storms

1) Clippers diving southeast 

2) Miller B's

Oh yea. Big December incoming. Sled engines in Southington being lubed up while wolves chase down turkeys. 

[ineedsnow]

mood snow on the GFS Friday

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM is a pretty significant system Tday night. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is a pretty significant system Tday night. 

 

[ineedsnow]

locking in the 12z CMC

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh yea. Big December incoming. Sled engines in Southington being lubed up while wolves chase down turkeys. 

I gotta say...I am feeling much better than I was, even from a week ago. One big difference between now and the last few winters is we are already building significant cold into western Canada and loading the cold into our source regions. This end of week system does load in that colder air here. 

One great plus too is that ridging which has been quite strong across the south really breaks down. This was a concern of mine because ant flexing of that ridge would really screw us and yield a favorable pattern for the OV/upper-midwest. 

IMO, the only way we really get screwed if this pattern does verify is if we end up suppressed and dry...now that can't be ruled out but I think we are going to have some opportunities to at least watch.

[ineedsnow]

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IMO, the only way we really get screwed if this pattern does verify is if we end up suppressed and dry

You must be new here. 

[Ginx snewx]

52 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

at least i can go out and sit by a fire in my fire pit with a few drinks after this rain something we haven't been able to do for the past 2 months.

Exactly been waiting for this. We burn

[MJO812]

Ukie

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I just threw up in my mouth