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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential


Go Kart Mozart
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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s coming…

Cautiously optimistic. Haven’t seen signs of the N PAC turning to crap. If anything, it improves as we get closer. 

Things can still go wrong but much better hemispheric look compared to recent winters.

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Cautiously optimistic. Haven’t seen signs of the N PAC turning to crap. If anything, it improves as we get closer. 

Things can still go wrong but much better hemispheric look compared to recent winters.

 

Oh I understand, there’s definitely reason to be  cautious still, I agree. But I’d rather see this showing up than not. 

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think one of the biggest stories of this subforum is that of all the weenies here, winter has broken you the most. I remember a time when you preached optimism and patience. 

The past half decade of futility has throughly beaten that out of you. :lol: :cry:

Puts Scooter’s heel turn to shame lol.

It’s difficult to remain optimistic during a stretch of winter like this. Things do look more promising on the models but I have been burned way too many times the past few years buying in when they look good. Hopefully this year and the next few years make up for all the garbage we had after the great 2017-2018 winter.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Cautiously optimistic. Haven’t seen signs of the N PAC turning to crap. If anything, it improves as we get closer. 

Things can still go wrong but much better hemispheric look compared to recent winters.

 

yup. you’d have to turn the clock a back a decade for looks like these 

IMG_0100.thumb.png.5f31a2c61ff369311febc5da1c590817.png

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In regards to the winter it looks like we dodged a bullet in regards to ENSO. The rapid warming in region 1.2 is indicative of a shift toward a modoki cold ENSO pattern. That’s an unfavorable structure but ENSO is so weak it likely won’t matter, if we had that shift to a modoki but with a moderate to strong La Niña like the models showed in spring to early summer that would have been bad news. There are a wide range of possibilities, but unlike last year we are in the game. Last year was cooked from the start.

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

In regards to the winter it looks like we dodged a bullet in regards to ENSO. The rapid warming in region 1.2 is indicative of a shift toward a modoki cold ENSO pattern. That’s an unfavorable structure but ENSO is so weak it likely won’t matter, if we had that shift to a modoki but with a moderate to strong La Niña like the models showed in spring to early summer that would have been bad news. There are a wide range of possibilities, but unlike last year we are in the game. Last year was cooked from the start.

Well keep in mind with respect to SST's, region 1.2 is most volatile and susceptible to rapid delta's.   

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS would have all our ponds frozen by the first week of December. Pattern of yore. 

they will freeze quick since the drought has drained every single pond in New England down to puddles :P

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