FXWX Posted Thursday at 07:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:11 PM 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: didn't ask me but agreed ( bold ) it's marginal+ environment, but so far there are ptype rad returns west of the capital district, already, prior to best dynamics and also, albeit fractional ... it's a colder leaning quagmire during the night at this time of year. John, assume you are always included! Lol.. thanks for the thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted Thursday at 07:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:12 PM Just now, ineedsnow said: 18z HRRR rips in SW CT later tonight Yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:13 PM Runaway iceberg is gonna wake to 6+ and power out . 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:14 PM 1 minute ago, FXWX said: Yep... lol enough cold air wraps in and even changes my area by 5am wtf lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:17 PM not much precip left by that time but still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted Thursday at 07:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:25 PM 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: This is a favorable setup for snowfall, even down to the Mason-Dixon line. If it was late Dec instead of late Nov, I would be more open to workable coastal snowfall, though that is a difficult ask given how warm waters are. The main points of contention are: 1) how quickly does the vort get ejected? 2) how much of the vort gets ejected? and 3) how strong is the confluence? I would argue that the confluence is the most important part of the setup... if it vanishes, there is not enough press from the cold air and the setup is DOA. However, if the vort comes out too early, it won't matter. This is unlikely, though... if anything, the vort would come out of the Rockies too late or too sheared rather than before confluence forms. How the 50/50 ULL trends is crucial to this setup and I will be watching that closely. Is there a baseline ocean temperature "required" for consistent snow on the coast? Or, a gradient where it's more likely at or below a certain water temp? .07" of rain on the day so far. Forecast was for between 1.25" - 1.50"ish but it's still early yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted Thursday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:30 PM 15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: lol enough cold air wraps in and even changes my area by 5am wtf lol Pretty interesting setup across sw CT / se NY with lots of bust potential both ways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Thursday at 07:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:32 PM 35 minutes ago, FXWX said: How you feeling about the far eastern NY / Western CT high terrain areas during the predawn hours Friday? Crazy model discrepancies? Erring on the low side of the model consensus, but kinda has now-cast type of feel to it? Yeah it’s one of those scenarios where if you can rip the column with massive omega, there could be a few hours of a surprise heavy wet snow. Column needs to cool a decent amount but we know huge dynamics can do it if they pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Thursday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:49 PM 36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z HRRR rips in SW CT later tonight Is there a HRRR/GFS rule? Just kinding, but they are pretty similar in trying to flip Fairfield County over to heavy snow. Another case where the hill behind me might pick up a couple inches and I have white rain....should be fun to watch it develop, if it does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Thursday at 07:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:52 PM 32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: not much precip left by that time but still Nothing wintery weather notable is happening E of the Southern Berkshires with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 08:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:01 PM 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Nothing wintery weather notable is happening E of the Southern Berkshires with this. Maybe not in the valley but I got hope up here for maybe a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Thursday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:06 PM 35 minutes ago, FXWX said: Pretty interesting setup across sw CT / se NY with lots of bust potential both ways... wild to see cold air advection from the SW 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted Thursday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:10 PM 20 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Is there a HRRR/GFS rule? Just kinding, but they are pretty similar in trying to flip Fairfield County over to heavy snow. Another case where the hill behind me might pick up a couple inches and I have white rain....should be fun to watch it develop, if it does Yeah, I'll be pouring a cold rain, and 15 miles to my southwest they'll be buried in 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted Thursday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:13 PM 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: wild to see cold air advection from the SW I remember being in Westchester county NY in 2010 or 2011 and we were getting obliterated with heavy snow, while it was pouring rain everywhere north and northeast of there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1 Posted Thursday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:18 PM 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: There’s a chance there…can we convert so your saying there is a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Thursday at 08:20 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 08:20 PM 9 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: Yeah, I'll be pouring a cold rain, and 15 miles to my southwest they'll be buried in 10 inches. The heavy snow line will end just short of Trumbull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Thursday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:20 PM 7 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: I remember being in Westchester county NY in 2010 or 2011 and we were getting obliterated with heavy snow, while it was pouring rain everywhere north and northeast of there. That was 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman1 Posted Thursday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:22 PM 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sell i am at .83 " of rain boy did we need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Thursday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:25 PM At .7” so far…decent rain all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted Thursday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:27 PM i am <0.1" so far. PIT (Paranoid in Tolland) nailed it for my area (but not his) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Thursday at 08:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:32 PM 4 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: i am <0.1" so far. PIT (Paranoid in Tolland) nailed it for my area (but not his) Pretty much as expected through this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Thursday at 08:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:33 PM 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: At .7” so far…decent rain all day. A nice soaking rain too....not much runoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Thursday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:45 PM 11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: A nice soaking rain too....not much runoff Ya, it came down moderately for a long period of time. Soaked in nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Thursday at 08:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:47 PM 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Ya, it came down moderately for a long period of time. Soaked in nice. A great day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted Thursday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:58 PM .55 here in E CT; fail on the 1-1.5 region wide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 09:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:00 PM 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: .55 here in E CT; fail on the 1-1.5 region wide It's not even close to over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted Thursday at 09:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:05 PM 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro has zero snow tomorrow night just be happy you're getting rn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:13 PM 13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: It's not even close to over yet Seriously. Some places will see rain through tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Thursday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:39 PM 40 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: .55 here in E CT; fail on the 1-1.5 region wide Is it Sunday already? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Thursday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:41 PM 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Seriously. Some places will see rain through tomorrow night. Even Saturday…especially for ECT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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