Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[Modfan2]

.39” so far here in E CT

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro brings some snow Thanksgiving 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Although it's early in the year, next week's setup is a good one, as there is a potent ridge over AK that's reaching all the way into Siberia, promoting cross polar flow. Perhaps most notably, there is a developing Greenland block that forces a 50/50 ULL (ULL over Nova Scotia, basically). As a vort gets ejected from the Rockies, the confluence from the 50/50 ULL may push colder, drier air into the flow and can prevent the main energy from shooting north. This is more of an overrunning to coastal or SWFE type event rather than a potent Nor'easter, to be clear.

This is a favorable setup for snowfall, even down to the Mason-Dixon line. If it was late Dec instead of late Nov, I would be more open to workable coastal snowfall, though that is a difficult ask given how warm waters are. The main points of contention are: 1) how quickly does the vort get ejected? 2) how much of the vort gets ejected? and 3) how strong is the confluence? I would argue that the confluence is the most important part of the setup... if it vanishes, there is not enough press from the cold air and the setup is DOA. However, if the vort comes out too early, it won't matter. This is unlikely, though... if anything, the vort would come out of the Rockies too late or too sheared rather than before confluence forms. How the 50/50 ULL trends is crucial to this setup and I will be watching that closely.

These cross polar flow patterns are pretty much the only ones cold enough to allow for snow at this time of year, and there is very high confidence in one developing. We are still at the range where the vort can get sheared to nothing, so the storm can still "disappear." Just don't write the threat off due to the time of year.

Only issue I'd like to see be avoided (assuming we get a system in the first place) is for the PV lobe to not be stretched or pushed far enough eastward....we've seen a couple different solutions since 00z last night where the true colder airmass didn't quite advect into our area prior to the system, so it ends up more marginal. That cause of it was the TPV hanging back a little bit or being just weaker in general which prevent that stronger push of high pressure.

Could still snow in that setup, but it would prob be much wetter and more elevation-dependent for accumulations.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe? Sorta? Who knows? Optimism??

There’s a chance there…can we convert

[ineedsnow]

very light snow Thanksgiving followed by rain Friday

[WinterWolf]

At 7-8 days out…just keep it around, details to be determined obviously. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro has zero snow tomorrow night 

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

well that ended up being the difference in making the playoffs versus missing. 

playoffs?  PLAYOFFS?

[Damage In Tolland]

Hot off the presses !! 

[kazimirkai]

I almost more interested in December 3-4 time-frame for something snowy. Both ensembles like some sort of trough there and there seems more cold air in place for that one.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hot off the presses !! 

If we end up in the no data category does that mean rivers/streams are all dried out and we've brunt to a crisp?

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro has zero snow tomorrow night 

That’s fine.  Nobody should really be expecting it.  If you see some flakes that would be cool.  
 

Been raining steady most of the day here…adding up. 

[ineedsnow]

EPS looks better for the end of the week deal

[ineedsnow]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro has zero snow tomorrow night 

but over a inch of rain for all of SNE   we take!

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

but over a inch of rain for all of SNE   we take!

Sell 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

I almost more interested in December 3-4 time-frame for something snowy. Both ensembles like some sort of trough there and there seems more cold air in place for that one.

Pattern is def more mature by the first week of December and basic climo is rapidly working in our favor by then. There's also some signs of west coast ridging during the first week of December....I'll believe it when I see it, but if it occurs, that would also help.

 

Still, Tday not out of question yet.

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only issue I'd like to see be avoided (assuming we get a system in the first place) is for the PV lobe to not be stretched or pushed far enough eastward....we've seen a couple different solutions since 00z last night where the true colder airmass didn't quite advect into our area prior to the system, so it ends up more marginal. That cause of it was the TPV hanging back a little bit or being just weaker in general which prevent that stronger push of high pressure.

Could still snow in that setup, but it would prob be much wetter and more elevation-dependent for accumulations.

yeah... ironically, i recall just yesterday mentioning that without out or nominal polar high north of the region, we can still pull off an event by so-called 'needle threading'    this is pretty much exactly how the 12z operational gfs gets at least a 34 f type of event through the region ( ~29th ). 

the 2nd's still also on the table btw -

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... ironically, i recall just yesterday mentioning that without out or nominal polar high north of the region, we can still pull off an event by so-called 'needle threading'    this is pretty much exactly how the 12z operational gfs gets at least 34 f type of event through the region ( ~29th ). 

the 2nd still also on the table btw -

Yep, and I'll take a needle threader 33-34F event if offered right now....beggars can't be choosers....esp when:

1. The last 2.5 winters have been complete dogshit

2. It's still November....trying to get a 4-8" 26F powder deal isn't all that easy in November....even during Novembers of yore.

 

That said, at least this is the *first* threat on the front end of a favorable pattern....there's prob more in the tank here as we go into early December assuming the ensembles aren't totally off their rocker.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, and I'll take a needle threader 33-34F event if offered right now....beggars can't be choosers....esp when:

1. The last 2.5 winters have been complete dogshit

2. It's still November....trying to get a 4-8" 26F powder deal isn't all that easy in November....even during Novembers of yore.

 

That said, at least this is the *first* threat on the front end of a favorable pattern....there's prob more in the tank here as we go into early December assuming the ensembles aren't totally off their rocker.

Seems like we pretty much lost the sliver of a shot we had at snow tomorrow night?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like we pretty much lost the sliver to f a shit we had at snow tomorrow night?

I'd still give tomorrow night a low prob of something in the hills. Some guidance has it and some doesn't and some favor different areas. Just gonna have to wait and see. Plan on nothing, and be pleasantly surprised if it's more than a few wet flakes.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like we pretty much lost the sliver to f a shit we had at snow tomorrow night?

i'm not speaking for Will but  ... i don't think tomorrow night was really very high confidence to begin with.  in my mind, it's possible - that's about it.  it's up to the reader to be fair and honest about what that means.  

it's probably 36 to 39f through the region, with period light rain and cat paws in a stiffening n wind as that ccb clips the region ... but it's not long lasting either. it's probably just cloud and raw with wind in the afternoon (sat).      this may perform better on mt wachusett and monadnock

[Typhoon Tip]

although ... the probability is going to be higher up by ray's place than kevin's due to where they are in relation to the system.

[George001]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like we pretty much lost the sliver of a shot we had at snow tomorrow night?

Low location is not ideal for that threat, looks like a cold rain.

[bwt3650]

Yep, and I'll take a needle threader 33-34F event if offered right now....beggars can't be choosers....esp when:
1. The last 2.5 winters have been complete dogshit
2. It's still November....trying to get a 4-8" 26F powder deal isn't all that easy in November....even during Novembers of yore.
 
That said, at least this is the *first* threat on the front end of a favorable pattern....there's prob more in the tank here as we go into early December assuming the ensembles aren't totally off their rocker.

Nice upslope burst Sunday as this pulls away. Maybe we put down the start of the pack at elevation.


.

[Typhoon Tip]

sure is nice pattern eye candy ...

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Nice upslope burst Sunday as this pulls away. Maybe we put down the start of the pack at elevation.


.

yup... the ski industry gets a nice start out of these next two weeks for that matter.  probably be summit squalls regardless -

[FXWX]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd still give tomorrow night a low prob of something in the hills. Some guidance has it and some doesn't and some favor different areas. Just gonna have to wait and see. Plan on nothing, and be pleasantly surprised if it's more than a few wet flakes.

How you feeling about the far eastern NY / Western CT high terrain areas during the predawn hours Friday?  Crazy model discrepancies?  Erring on the low side of the model consensus, but kinda has now-cast type of feel to it?  

 

[cleetussnow]

Coming back from Miami on Dec. 6 so obviously a blizzard will happen while I am stuck in cold south beach

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

How you feeling about the far eastern NY / Western CT high terrain areas during the predawn hours Friday?  Crazy model discrepancies?  Erring on the low side of the model consensus, but kinda has now-cast type of feel to it?  

 

didn't ask me but agreed ( bold )

it's marginal+ environment, but so far there are ptype rad returns west of the capital district, already, prior to best dynamics and also, albeit fractional ... it's a colder leaning quagmire during the night at this time of year. 

[ineedsnow]

18z HRRR rips in SW CT later tonight