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Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

Go Kart Mozart

By Go Kart Mozart,
in New England

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS insisting on a CCB over extreme western NE tonight and SENY .. would be some very heavy snow 

Lol, GFS clown with 12+ over Fairfield county.....I guess where that low comes in and deepens determine who sees some flakes, Ridgefield hills will probably see a couple slushy inches in that scenario

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HIPPYVALLEY
HIPPYVALLEY

My friend’s parents barn burned down in the Buckland brushfire this evening.  

dendrite
dendrite

Initialized by Ann Selzer

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

Well I guess we've arrived to the point in the season where 1. The first "winter" threat is around Thanksgiving. Then when that doesn't happen... 2. EPS shows big pattern change coming aroun

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Newark could end up getting their first T of snow (maybe even like 1/2'') before places like BDL, ORH, BOS...did BTV get anything with that cold shot a few weeks back?

And before here in the Maine foothills?  Latest I've had to wait for the season's first flakes is today's date, so a new late start whenever one is seen.  We head for SNJ this coming Tuesday and there's a chance that no flakes arrive before then.
 

even BWI may be able to pull some minor accumulation 

Another 2009-10 on the way?  That was the season when they got 7" more than CAR.  :P

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWolf said:

Yes, that’s been dancing around in that time frame for quite a while now….something’s there…modeling trying to resolve what it may be. 

It goes right into the first week of December too, The pattern is pretty favorable with cold air around for anything that pops should be wintry in that period just looking briefly over some of the guidance.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

11-29/30 is kind of back so far at 12z

gfs isn’t as strong with the high and cold as it was yesterday; results in a mixed bag for many.

CMC presses pretty hard and it gets punted east. Beaches would get some snow 

Good place to be at this juncture imo….keep it hanging around. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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The end of next week looks like just one of those FROPA's with a developing wave of low pressure. Two things about these setups:

1. The snow maps go absolutely bonkers with these and always spit out some "historic totals". 

2. These setups almost never work for us (except farther north). 

With that said, like was mentioned yesterday by Will and a few others, gotta watch that PV lobe...if we can get some PV/confluence to suppress the boundary then it may work out. 

An overlooked aspect of these setups too can be the influences of convection across the South which can rob moisture but at least right now, this may not be something to worry about...don't see much of a signal for strong convection. 

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

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Although it's early in the year, next week's setup is a good one, as there is a potent ridge over AK that's reaching all the way into Siberia, promoting cross polar flow. Perhaps most notably, there is a developing Greenland block that forces a 50/50 ULL (ULL over Nova Scotia, basically). As a vort gets ejected from the Rockies, the confluence from the 50/50 ULL may push colder, drier air into the flow and can prevent the main energy from shooting north. This is more of an overrunning to coastal or SWFE type event rather than a potent Nor'easter, to be clear.

This is a favorable setup for snowfall, even down to the Mason-Dixon line. If it was late Dec instead of late Nov, I would be more open to workable coastal snowfall, though that is a difficult ask given how warm waters are. The main points of contention are: 1) how quickly does the vort get ejected? 2) how much of the vort gets ejected? and 3) how strong is the confluence? I would argue that the confluence is the most important part of the setup... if it vanishes, there is not enough press from the cold air and the setup is DOA. However, if the vort comes out too early, it won't matter. This is unlikely, though... if anything, the vort would come out of the Rockies too late or too sheared rather than before confluence forms. How the 50/50 ULL trends is crucial to this setup and I will be watching that closely.

These cross polar flow patterns are pretty much the only ones cold enough to allow for snow at this time of year, and there is very high confidence in one developing. We are still at the range where the vort can get sheared to nothing, so the storm can still "disappear." Just don't write the threat off due to the time of year.

Untitled.thumb.png.7975469fb5548a0fdb90a76f6dffbc9b.png

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Although it's early in the year, next week's setup is a good one, as there is a potent ridge over AK that's reaching all the way into Siberia, promoting cross polar flow. Perhaps most notably, there is a developing Greenland block that forces a 50/50 ULL (ULL over Nova Scotia, basically). As a vort gets ejected from the Rockies, the confluence from the 50/50 ULL may push colder, drier air into the flow and can prevent the main energy from shooting north. This is more of an overrunning to coastal or SWFE type event rather than a potent Nor'easter, to be clear.

This is a favorable setup for snowfall, even down to the Mason-Dixon line. If it was late Dec instead of late Nov, I would be more open to workable coastal snowfall, though that is a difficult ask given how warm waters are. The main points of contention are: 1) how quickly does the vort get ejected? 2) how much of the vort gets ejected? and 3) how strong is the confluence? I would argue that the confluence is the most important part of the setup... if it vanishes, there is not enough press from the cold air and the setup is DOA. However, if the vort comes out too early, it won't matter. This is unlikely, though... if anything, the vort would come out of the Rockies too late or too sheared rather than before confluence forms. How the 50/50 ULL trends is crucial to this setup and I will be watching that closely.

These cross polar flow patterns are pretty much the only ones cold enough to allow for snow at this time of year, and there is very high confidence in one developing. We are still at the range where the vort can get sheared to nothing, so the storm can still "disappear." Just don't write the threat off due to the time of year.

Untitled.thumb.png.7975469fb5548a0fdb90a76f6dffbc9b.png

Great stuff.

And for the bolded, also another concern in these setups. At least right now though, the jet doesn't look overly powerful (like we've seen with some of these setups in the past). In fact, if you look at the structure of the jet stream and jet streak...there would be a window for some brief cyclogenesis within the Northeast (or upper-Mid Atlantic) which could be enhanced by strong thermal gradient along coast. 

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