tamarack Posted Thursday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:32 PM GYX overnight shift QPF was 1.5-2 here yesterday, 1-1.5 this morning. Daytime shifts Tues-Wed 0.5-1 both days. Models flipping? Cloudy with a raw wind and low 40s. Hoped the deer would be moving ahead of the storm. If they were, it was elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Thursday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:33 PM 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: First shot across the bow and early. Great signs hemisphere wide for an extended period of BN for a huge chunk of the country. Tons of blocking. Hate to say it as I will definitely get roasted for it but it's patience grasshopper season. We welcome with open arms It certainly is great seeing -WPO signals...haven't had that early in winter in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 02:33 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:33 PM pouring!! About damn time! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Thursday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:41 PM 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I mean I try not to get my head into that "what if" game...I mean you could apply the what if to anything in life. But this system...this evolution, its quite anomalous for this time of year. It certainly is early so it would be foolish to expect a significant winter storm (though its happened before) but sometimes you look back at these at the end of the season and be like, "damn if only that produced". Like sports...at the end of the season, you go back and look at that loss you had early on where you had the game and let it get away...well that ended up being the difference in making the playoffs versus missing. We need to get out of this rut...we need something to finally just go our way. I agree with what you are saying…but it’s very early so I don’t consider this a missed opportunity on 11/20 here. A month from now…absolutely. And he’s taking about that in a completely different way than you took it. Sports analogy: you don’t miss an opportunity in the pre season/exhibition games, cuz they don’t really count toward your record. This is and should be rain. Nothing missed here as far as winter opportunities in SNE imo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Thursday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:41 PM Newark could end up getting their first T of snow (maybe even like 1/2'') before places like BDL, ORH, BOS...did BTV get anything with that cold shot a few weeks back? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted Thursday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:48 PM Valley getting the split precipitation field, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted Thursday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:51 PM yup down to a sprinkle in the Hartford area. want more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted Thursday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:52 PM How much for Philly?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:59 PM that 12z nam fous grid is wet snow at Logan to almost 1” qpf sat morning 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted Thursday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:00 PM 28 minutes ago, tamarack said: GYX overnight shift QPF was 1.5-2 here yesterday, 1-1.5 this morning. Daytime shifts Tues-Wed 0.5-1 both days. Models flipping? Cloudy with a raw wind and low 40s. Hoped the deer would be moving ahead of the storm. If they were, it was elsewhere. My buddy shot a 206 lbs 8 pointer last night currently hanging in my garage, first thing with horns he's seen all season. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:09 PM 20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Valley getting the split precipitation field, This is what we were explaining last night that the hi res was showing. Huge dry slot for much of SNE. Was very evident 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Thursday at 03:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:12 PM 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is what we were explaining last night that the hi res was showing. Huge dry slot for much of SNE. Was very evident That’s nothing new though. This was never was a 3 day deluge. Lots of low level drizzle with off and on showers after the front pushes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 03:13 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:13 PM 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: that 12z nam fous grid is wet snow at Logan to almost 1” qpf sat morning might be a nowcast event.. still not expecting much though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Thursday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:14 PM For eastern areas, the much bigger event is Friday night/Saturday morning, but probably going to be a precip “hole” in Central NE. Some, near the Connecticut river will be on the margin of both systems, and won’t get much precip at all… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:18 PM 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s nothing new though. This was never was a 3 day deluge. Lots of low level drizzle with off and on showers after the front pushes through. It’s just the reason I have been expecting less than 1” for many of us . In CT anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted Thursday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:18 PM 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: that 12z nam fous grid is wet snow at Logan to almost 1” qpf sat morning I’m cool if that’s liquid. Happy to be done with the smoke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted Thursday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:23 PM 41/ drizzle, since midnight @ .08" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:24 PM yeah.. it's too marginal to snort a line over. i'm just relaying what the grid has. it could be white rain just as well. but that's the coldest gridded thermal profile regarding that retrograding ccb i've seen to date. it's actually not even isothermal. 800 mb is -3c ... 900 is 0c and the bottom is +3c. shallow warmth and you can soak cotton balls at 37 .. 38 for non-accumulating ptype when the 900 and 800 average neg. fall rates can exceed melt rates at that chilly sfc reading 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Thursday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:26 PM 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s just the reason I have been expecting less than 1” for many of us . In CT anyway Most see around 1” imo with west pushing 2”. The landscape will take it regardless. 0.45” here so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Thursday at 03:31 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:31 PM 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Most see around 1” imo with west pushing 2”. The landscape will take it regardless. 0.45” here so far. .24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Thursday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:34 PM 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah.. it's too marginal to snort a line over. i'm just relaying what the grid has. it could be white rain just as well. but that's the coldest gridded thermal profile regarding that retrograding ccb i've seen to date. it's actually not even isothermal. 800 mb is -3c ... 900 is 0c and the bottom is +3c. shallow warmth and you can soak cotton balls at 37 .. 38 for non-accumulating ptype when the 900 and 800 average neg. fall rates can exceed melt rates at that chilly sfc reading I want my D Drip, bitch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Thursday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:39 PM moderate to heavy rain here under a weenie band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted Thursday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:43 PM Dumping in ASH/41F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Thursday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:46 PM 2 minutes ago, 512high said: Dumping in ASH/41F Be sure not to clear the puddles from the board any more frequently than 6 hour intervals. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Thursday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:52 PM 24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Most see around 1” imo with west pushing 2”. The landscape will take it regardless. 0.45” here so far. Early season melting for us, IF the thermals on the GFS or just the GFS for that matter could be believed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:52 PM 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: .24 .25. Radar looks shall we say “unpromising” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Thursday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:59 PM GFS insisting on a CCB over extreme western NE tonight and SENY .. would be some very heavy snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:00 PM Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: GFS insisting on a CCB over extreme western NE tonight and SENY .. would be some very heavy snow You and Runway enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Thursday at 04:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:00 PM 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah.. it's too marginal to snort a line over. i'm just relaying what the grid has. it could be white rain just as well. but that's the coldest gridded thermal profile regarding that retrograding ccb i've seen to date. it's actually not even isothermal. 800 mb is -3c ... 900 is 0c and the bottom is +3c. shallow warmth and you can soak cotton balls at 37 .. 38 for non-accumulating ptype when the 900 and 800 average neg. fall rates can exceed melt rates at that chilly sfc reading That's the type of profile where latent cooling can help a lot too. Melting all those -3C to -4C aggregates is gonna use up a lot of energy and cool the BL. But obviously you want heavy rates to maximize the cooling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted Thursday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:04 PM https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 911 AM EST Thursday...And so the snow begins. At Whiteface Mountain, that is. The last few images of a webcam atop Whiteface Mountain show that freezing drizzle has changed to snow as the DGZ has finally saturated. This gives us strong confirmation that the snow level presently is around 4000 ft give or take 100 feet across northern NY with VT still hovering closer to 5000 ft as we still await some colder air aloft and some wet-bulbing likely to occur as the mid-levels saturate. Otherwise, rain is ever so slowly working it`s way northward with rainfall rates of a tenth of an inch or less per hour observed thus far. There is a good bit of bright banding going on across all regional radars given freezing level around 4000-5000 feet so don`t let the radar fool you into thinking heavy rain is falling across the Hudson Valley or coastal New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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