Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[tamarack]

GYX overnight shift QPF was 1.5-2 here yesterday, 1-1.5 this morning.  Daytime shifts Tues-Wed 0.5-1 both days.  Models flipping?

Cloudy with a raw wind and low 40s.  Hoped the deer would be moving ahead of the storm.  If they were, it was elsewhere.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

First shot across the bow and early. Great signs hemisphere wide for an extended period of BN for a huge chunk of the country. Tons of blocking. Hate to say it as I will definitely get roasted for it but it's patience grasshopper season. We welcome with open arms

It certainly is great seeing -WPO signals...haven't had that early in winter in a bit. 

[ineedsnow]

pouring!! About damn time! 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I mean I try not to get my head into that "what if" game...I mean you could apply the what if to anything in life. But this system...this evolution, its quite anomalous for this time of year. It certainly is early so it would be foolish to expect a significant winter storm (though its happened before) but sometimes you look back at these at the end of the season and be like, "damn if only that produced". Like sports...at the end of the season, you go back and look at that loss you had early on where you had the game and let it get away...well that ended up being the difference in making the playoffs versus missing. 

We need to get out of this rut...we need something to finally just go our way. 

I agree with what you are saying…but it’s very early so I don’t consider this a missed opportunity on 11/20 here.  A month from now…absolutely.   
 

And he’s taking about that in a completely different way than you took it. 
 

Sports analogy:  you don’t miss an opportunity in the pre season/exhibition games, cuz they don’t really count toward your record.  This is and should be rain. Nothing missed here as far as winter opportunities in SNE imo. 

[weatherwiz]

Newark could end up getting their first T of snow (maybe even like 1/2'') before places like BDL, ORH, BOS...did BTV get anything with that cold shot a few weeks back?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Valley getting the split precipitation field, 

 

[DJln491]

yup down to a sprinkle in the Hartford area.  want more

[NorEastermass128]

How much for Philly?!

[Typhoon Tip]

that 12z nam fous grid is wet snow at Logan to almost 1” qpf  sat morning

[TheMainer]

28 minutes ago, tamarack said:

GYX overnight shift QPF was 1.5-2 here yesterday, 1-1.5 this morning.  Daytime shifts Tues-Wed 0.5-1 both days.  Models flipping?

Cloudy with a raw wind and low 40s.  Hoped the deer would be moving ahead of the storm.  If they were, it was elsewhere.

My buddy shot a 206 lbs 8 pointer last night currently hanging in my garage, first thing with horns he's seen all season. 

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Valley getting the split precipitation field, 

 

This is what we were explaining last night that the hi res was showing. Huge dry slot for much of SNE. Was very evident 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is what we were explaining last night that the hi res was showing. Huge dry slot for much of SNE. Was very evident 

That’s nothing new though. This was never was a 3 day deluge. Lots of low level drizzle with off and on showers after the front pushes through. 

[ineedsnow]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that 12z nam fous grid is wet snow at Logan to almost 1” qpf  sat morning

might be a nowcast event.. still not expecting much though

[jbenedet]

For eastern areas, the much bigger event is Friday night/Saturday morning, but probably going to be a precip “hole” in Central NE.

Some, near the Connecticut river will be on the margin of both systems, and won’t get much precip at all…

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s nothing new though. This was never was a 3 day deluge. Lots of low level drizzle with off and on showers after the front pushes through. 

It’s just the reason I have been expecting less than 1” for many of us . In CT anyway 

[NorEastermass128]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that 12z nam fous grid is wet snow at Logan to almost 1” qpf  sat morning

I’m cool if that’s liquid. Happy to be done with the smoke. 

[512high]

41/ drizzle, since midnight @ .08"

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah.. it's too marginal to snort a line over. i'm just relaying what the grid has.

it could be white rain just as well.  but that's the coldest gridded thermal profile regarding that retrograding ccb i've seen to date.    it's actually not even isothermal.   800 mb is -3c ... 900 is 0c and the bottom is +3c.  shallow warmth and you can soak cotton balls at 37 .. 38 for non-accumulating ptype when the 900 and 800 average neg.  fall rates can exceed melt rates at that chilly sfc reading

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s just the reason I have been expecting less than 1” for many of us . In CT anyway 

Most see around 1” imo with west pushing 2”.  The landscape will take it regardless.

0.45” here so far.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Most see around 1” imo with west pushing 2”.  The landscape will take it regardless.

0.45” here so far.

.24

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah.. it's too marginal to snort a line over. i'm just relaying what the grid has.

it could be white rain just as well.  but that's the coldest gridded thermal profile regarding that retrograding ccb i've seen to date.    it's actually not even isothermal.   800 mb is -3c ... 900 is 0c and the bottom is +3c.  shallow warmth and you can soak cotton balls at 37 .. 38 for non-accumulating ptype when the 900 and 800 average neg.  fall rates can exceed melt rates at that chilly sfc reading

I want my D Drip, bitch.

[Brian5671]

moderate to heavy rain here under a weenie band

[512high]

Dumping in ASH/41F

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Dumping in ASH/41F

Be sure not to clear the puddles from the board any more frequently than 6 hour intervals.

[Spanks45]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Most see around 1” imo with west pushing 2”.  The landscape will take it regardless.

0.45” here so far.

Early season melting for us, IF the thermals on the GFS or just the GFS for that matter could be believed...

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

.24

.25. Radar looks shall we say “unpromising” 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS insisting on a CCB over extreme western NE tonight and SENY .. would be some very heavy snow 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS insisting on a CCB over extreme western NE tonight and SENY .. would be some very heavy snow 

You and Runway enjoy!

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah.. it's too marginal to snort a line over. i'm just relaying what the grid has.

it could be white rain just as well.  but that's the coldest gridded thermal profile regarding that retrograding ccb i've seen to date.    it's actually not even isothermal.   800 mb is -3c ... 900 is 0c and the bottom is +3c.  shallow warmth and you can soak cotton balls at 37 .. 38 for non-accumulating ptype when the 900 and 800 average neg.  fall rates can exceed melt rates at that chilly sfc reading

That's the type of profile where latent cooling can help a lot too. Melting all those -3C to -4C aggregates is gonna use up a lot of energy and cool the BL. But obviously you want heavy rates to maximize the cooling.

[klw]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 911 AM EST Thursday...And so the snow begins. At Whiteface
Mountain, that is. The last few images of a webcam atop
Whiteface Mountain show that freezing drizzle has changed to
snow as the DGZ has finally saturated. This gives us strong
confirmation that the snow level presently is around 4000 ft
give or take 100 feet across northern NY with VT still hovering
closer to 5000 ft as we still await some colder air aloft and
some wet-bulbing likely to occur as the mid-levels saturate.
Otherwise, rain is ever so slowly working it`s way northward
with rainfall rates of a tenth of an inch or less per hour
observed thus far. There is a good bit of bright banding going
on across all regional radars given freezing level around
4000-5000 feet so don`t let the radar fool you into thinking
heavy rain is falling across the Hudson Valley or coastal New
England.