Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[weatherwiz]

9 hours ago, jbenedet said:

This storm was the great opportunity missed because of late Nov climate and antecedent warmth. 
 

This was the storm. 
 

This isn’t your table setter or pattern changer; it’s the one to cash in on. And we missed it. 

Agreed on this. 

We need to be able to cash in on opportunities and this was one opportunity missed.

[Modfan2]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tomorrow should have at minimum party  cloudy for awhile in dry slot 

My concern is yes while .50/.75 of rain definitely helps with the fire threat if we are windy and dry out for the weekend into next week I think people will feel with todays rain it’s open season to burn again and we could see some problems again

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

My concern is yes while .50/.75 of rain definitely helps with the fire threat if we are windy and dry out for the weekend into next week I think people will feel with todays rain it’s open season to burn again and we could see some problems again

Fires raging across the region on Tgiving day as folks smoking and deep frying turkeys lose control ?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm concerned about the EPO...if we get a -EPO to consistently link up with the -WPO, which is high confidence for me, in the seasonal mean, then I am going to bust a bit too warm and defenitely not snowy enough. I forecasted a bit of a disconnect there in that lower heights will periodically infiltrate at least the eastern portion of AK.

if it were me ... i would disconnect this period from winter.

[Spanks45]

0.42" in the Stratus this morning.....44.2 currently

[NorEastermass128]

I’m watching the sheet drizzle like a KU is raging outside. Man, have my standards dropped. 

[metagraphica]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A lot of brightbanding there over CT

Pouring rain.  Cats and dogs type rain.

[metagraphica]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s all bright banding. Bark not much bite. Moved thru here with light rain 

Cats and dogs here.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed on this. 

We need to be able to cash in on opportunities and this was one opportunity missed.

futile to try and wrangle in emotional cats buuut, how can there be an opportunity missed when considering climate at this time of year?  in 1750 this would not be an opportunity lost. 

if anything...it's a gain having this behavior on the map in general.  it's a presage ( possibly ..) for winter, to establish coastal tendencies now - that is all.  anything else beyond that dopamine ( lol ) is in fact more than normal.

again ...this is just me - to each is his or her own. 

the latest guidance trending cold rain and cat paws, with elevation wet snow? that is just about exactly what the norman rockwellian climatologist and arm chair pipe smoker would recall of any novembers of lore.

see ...realistically, we don't start missing opportunities until the the expectation aligns with winter climate, when it is actually supposed to do so.

[jbenedet]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed on this. 

We need to be able to cash in on opportunities and this was one opportunity missed.

Saturday 970's in the gulf of maine, with CCB overhead but temps advecting from Ontario, which is in the mid to upper 30's. 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Cats and dogs here.

Eating the cats, eating the dogs here.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

futile to try and wrangle in emotional cats buuut, how can there be an opportunity missed when considering climate at this time of year?  in 1750 this would not be an opportunity lost. 

if anything...it's a gain having this behavior on the map in general.  it's a presage ( possibly ..) for winter, to establish coastal tendencies now - that is all.  anything else beyond that dopamine ( lol ) is in fact more than normal.

again ...this is just me - to each is his or her own. 

the latest guidance trending cold rain and cat paws, with elevation wet snow? that is just about exactly what the norman rockwellian climatologist and arm chair pipe smoker would recall of any novembers of lore.

see ...realistically, we don't start missing opportunities until the the expectation aligns with winter climate, when it is actually supposed to do so.

It's more about just the evolution of the system and processes involved. If you just look at that and don't factor in the time of year it's an opportunity missed. I think being able to cash in on opportunities is extremely underrated when you go back to assess the season as a whole.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Saturday 970's in the gulf of maine, with CCB overhead but temps advecting from Ontario, which is in the mid to upper 30's. 

Crazy  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Cats and dogs here.

Are they being eaten?

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's more about just the evolution of the system and processes involved. If you just look at that and don't factor in the time of year it's an opportunity missed. I think being able to cash in on opportunities is extremely underrated when you go back to assess the season as a whole.

you're eliding the point:   yeah, but the processes involved are doing so when it is not typically a snow to begin with. 

 it's alright.  like i said ... you can penetrate the shroud of emotion-influenced attitude with reason, right or wrong.  wrangling emotion cats .. .heh, i like that one.  i just don't think anything about this system as being 'unfair' when the "evolution of the system and the processes involved" are actually ahead of the climate curve for this time of year.

yeah, there's some positive 2-meter temp anomalies N-W of here.  i'll give you guys that .. but in fairness, this system is over-achieving if anything when considering the total synoptic manifold and all parametrics

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tomorrow should have at minimum party  cloudy for awhile in dry slot 

Not as hopeful up here as that E component starts picking back up here tomorrow ahead of storm 2. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

if it were me ... i would disconnect this period from winter.

I was speaking about winter in that post.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Pouring rain.  Cats and dogs type rain.

Yeah there’s still some R+ in there, but a lot of those echoes are still brightbanding. 

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Walt Drag in NJ while central MA into CT dryslots on HRRR.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was speaking about winter in that post.

i dunno - it sounded like you were letting the current presentation of -wpo/-epo pacific make you nervous about winter. 

i probably read in too deep.  haha.   but just sayn'  i wouldn't do that. 

the problem i have, which just about abolishes all confidence in what djf turns out is that ... mm nothing we are seeing now ( according to my recollection ) is different from those snow shot across the bow events that preceded a lot of the piece shit winters that we've suffered over the last decade.    that's a.  

b, i can come up with a hypothetical posit as to why  ... it has to do with when the gradient of a warmer than normal mid and lower latitude hemisphere presses (seasonally) against the lowering heights above; that enhances the gradient and as recent seasons have shown, is offsetting the longer termed seasonal telecons - ex lending to episodic decoupling of the enso from the mid latitudes with increased frequency ... just one example. but also, the speediness of the hemisphere gets going in a month or so from now, and that kicks in another charm about gradient surplus: too much velocity. the intraseasonal telecons, like the wpo, epo, nao and pna, they're having trouble maintaining pattern biases at all ... stochastically vacillating between positive and negative modes ...

this stuff is most likely going to happen again.   

 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Walt Drag in NJ while central MA into CT dryslots on HRRR.

This would be some fun melts a month or two from now. 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Walt Drag in NJ while central MA into CT dryslots on HRRR.

Someone posted that days ago. I wonder who ? Bbbbbbbbuuuttt the models show 1-3” of rain. 

[WinterWolf]

Just bring the rain through Friday night.   Where that ULL ultimately tracks/sets up is key obviously. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i dunno - it sounded like you were letting the current presentation of -wpo/-epo pacific make you nervous about winter. 

i probably read in too deep.  haha.   but just sayn'  i wouldn't do that. 

the problem i have, which just about abolishes all confidence in what djf turns out is that ... mm nothing we are seeing now ( according to my recollection ) is different from those snow shot across the bow events that preceded a lot of the piece shit winters that we've suffered over the last decade.    that's a.  

b, i can come up with a hypothetical posit as to why  ... it has to do with when the gradient of a warmer than normal mid and lower latitude hemisphere presses (seasonally) against the lowering heights above; that enhances the gradient and as recent seasons have shown, is offsetting the longer termed seasonal telecons - ex lending to episodic decoupling of the enso from the mid latitudes with increased frequency ... just one example. but also, the speediness of the hemisphere gets going in a month or so from now, and that kicks in another charm about gradient surplus: too much velocity. the intraseasonal telecons, like the wpo, epo, nao and pna, they're having trouble maintaining pattern biases at all ... stochastically vacillating between positive and negative modes ...

this stuff is most likely going to happen again.   

 

Not really...I see why it came off like that. I came into the winter least confident in my handling of the EPO, which you validated by pointing out a few days ago that its a bit of a tall task to have a disconnect like that from a -WPO. I was just saying that if this pattern were to persist in the seasonal mean, then I would bust a bit too warm and not snowy enough. Just a hypothetical....I also followed it up by stating that I still think December ends up warm.

[WinterWolf]

53 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed on this. 

We need to be able to cash in on opportunities and this was one opportunity missed.

He’s saying something different than you are Paul.   I’m kind of shocked you can’t see that?  And this certainly wasn’t a missed opportunity for SNE. 

[Ginx snewx]

Consstent  .3 rain first batch, lots more to pop up. Fire danger is pretty much over now. Cold for the extended. Good chances of flakes thru the next two weeks. God bless the EPO

[Ginx snewx]

At work in Danielson.  Did someone say sun coming out? Also this maple just doesn't want to drop. It's the only tree I see with any leaves anywhere. Strange

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s saying something different than you are Paul.   I’m kind of shocked you can’t see that?  And this certainly wasn’t a missed opportunity for SNE. 

I mean I try not to get my head into that "what if" game...I mean you could apply the what if to anything in life. But this system...this evolution, its quite anomalous for this time of year. It certainly is early so it would be foolish to expect a significant winter storm (though its happened before) but sometimes you look back at these at the end of the season and be like, "damn if only that produced". Like sports...at the end of the season, you go back and look at that loss you had early on where you had the game and let it get away...well that ended up being the difference in making the playoffs versus missing. 

We need to get out of this rut...we need something to finally just go our way. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

So far .10” here.  
Not much of a soaker yet. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I mean I try not to get my head into that "what if" game...I mean you could apply the what if to anything in life. But this system...this evolution, its quite anomalous for this time of year. It certainly is early so it would be foolish to expect a significant winter storm (though its happened before) but sometimes you look back at these at the end of the season and be like, "damn if only that produced". Like sports...at the end of the season, you go back and look at that loss you had early on where you had the game and let it get away...well that ended up being the difference in making the playoffs versus missing. 

We need to get out of this rut...we need something to finally just go our way. 

First shot across the bow and early. Great signs hemisphere wide for an extended period of BN for a huge chunk of the country. Tons of blocking. Hate to say it as I will definitely get roasted for it but it's patience grasshopper season. We welcome with open arms