Blowvember - and not named for wind potential

[WinterWolf]

6z Op runs, gonna Op run.  Off hour runs are erratic more often than not. 

Do the ensembles share their idea? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Wow what a beautiful ridge out west on this gfs run. The amount of cold air is amazing thanks to the negative epo. Weenie run.

 

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Seeing these solutions right now is amazing.

 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs cancelled winter 

 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro too 

Lol. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Regarding this weekend, as usual occluded systems with random s/w’s are hard to nail down. Definitely a chance of a coating from the Monads to CT hills maybe some spots a little more. Just depends on where and how second low forms. Sort of favor north, but not all of the question it wraps in further south.

Not expecting much here but it would be nice to get atleast a coating.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Not expecting much here but it would be nice to get atleast a coating.

Ya, just enjoy the rain which we haven’t seen in 3 months. It’s a good thing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I like that there's no real sign of breaking down the -WPO/EPO in the extended range on ensembles. That's going to be a key on whether December can sustain some good cold and snow chances or if we just get a 7-10 day transient period from near T-day to Dec 5th or so.

I'm concerned about the EPO...if we get a -EPO to consistently link up with the -WPO, which is high confidence for me, in the seasonal mean, then I am going to bust a bit too warm and defenitely not snowy enough. I forecasted a bit of a disconnect there in that lower heights will periodically infiltrate at least the eastern portion of AK.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Ok... What's also shocking is the amount of rain we're supposed to get has gone up. 1 to 1.5" in now?

The for Friday night with something that just popped up last night it was very small. There is going to be some snow just north of us and just west of us of course, but we've been out of the Chance of snow here in Connecticut with this storm. 

 

It’s under an inch of you’d look at models 

[Damage In Tolland]

57 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

some  models still have something .. just depends on temps and how heavy the precip is,,, enjoy your 1 to 2 

Under1” radar looks bad 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

 

 

Lol. 

Donuts 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, I do remember 04’s January frigid spell now that you say that..single digits for highs. 

I miss that kind of cold.....as much as it would elicit a quite a bout of murmured cursing at 44yo, I do miss it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Donuts 

Heavy icing with sprinkles. 
 

The good news is we’ll get more rain and maybe an ice storm throw in there at some point. 

[dryslot]

I see some are getting there weenie on early this year.

[metagraphica]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Under1” radar looks bad 

wat?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I see the EURO already lost the 1899 blizzard redux.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Funny how as soon as everyone starts mentioning the setup next weekend, it promptly disappears. Classic 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see the EURO already lost the 1899 blizzard redux.

Pattern still looks good. Caution though lol.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Funny how as soon as everyone starts mentioning the setup next weekend, it promptly disappears. Classic 

Yup..the irony is always classic/comical.  It’ll probably pop back later in somewhere.  

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see the EURO already lost the 1899 blizzard redux.

Winter is over 

[Great Snow 1717]

20 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

wat?

in fairness he did not mention in what part of the world the radar looked bad.....coulda been Death Valley

[CoastalWx]

I still like the east based -EPO look. That hasn’t disappeared. Starts literally last day or so of November. I’m not putting effort into anything after Thanksgiving.

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

wat?

A lot of brightbanding there over CT

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A lot of brightbanding there over CT

The sun will be out soon.

[ORH_wxman]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm concerned about the EPO...if we get a -EPO to consistently link up with the -WPO, which is high confidence for me, in the seasonal mean, then I am going to bust a bit too warm and defenitely not snowy enough. I forecasted a bit of a disconnect there in that lower heights will periodically infiltrate at least the eastern portion of AK.

The EPO/WPO situation is why I have some cautious optimism about December right now. Impressive how it reloads and stays solidly negative on the EPS and GEFS all the way though the first week of December with no signs of breaking down. 

We’ll still have to worry about the trough diving down a bit too far west at times (this actually happened on the euro last night which turned our snowstorm next weekend into a front ender that changes to rain) but at least when you have the cross polar flow, you have a legit source region. Guidance also tries to start linking it up with western ridging as we go into December so maybe we can get a larger scale system when that happens. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

The sun will be out soon.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The EPO/WPO situation is why I have some cautious optimism about December right now. Impressive how it reloads and stays solidly negative on the EPS and GEFS all the way though the first week of December with no signs of breaking down. 

We’ll still have to worry about the trough diving down a bit too far west at times (this actually happened on the euro last night which turned our snowstorm next weekend into a front ender that changes to rain) but at least when you have the cross polar flow, you have a legit source region. Guidance also tries to start linking it up with western ridging as we go into December so maybe we can get a larger scale system when that happens. 

I still think I'm fine even with a cold first week of December because the warmth period mid month will overshadow the cold...the key will be how long the warmth persists.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The EPO/WPO situation is why I have some cautious optimism about December right now. Impressive how it reloads and stays solidly negative on the EPS and GEFS all the way though the first week of December with no signs of breaking down. 

We’ll still have to worry about the trough diving down a bit too far west at times (this actually happened on the euro last night which turned our snowstorm next weekend into a front ender that changes to rain) but at least when you have the cross polar flow, you have a legit source region. Guidance also tries to start linking it up with western ridging as we go into December so maybe we can get a larger scale system when that happens. 

Yeah I do like seeing that. Kind of a stable look to it. Hopefully whatever forcing is there stalls and keeps that jet west based in the Pacific. I’m in vacation so I haven’t dug deep into this stuff, but so far so good. But yeah still a EPOhNo risk if s/w’s dig too far west.

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

wat?

That’s all bright banding. Bark not much bite. Moved thru here with light rain 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still think I'm fine even with a cold first week of December because the warmth period mid month will overshadow the cold...the key will be how long the warmth persists.

I hope your forecast and my December shit period fail miserably.  

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, kdxken said:

The sun will be out soon.

Could be a couple of breaks along the S coast later!

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Could be a couple of breaks along the S coast later!

Tomorrow should have at minimum party  cloudy for awhile in dry slot 

[CoastalWx]

Actually MJO going into phase 6 in December. That’s encouraging to see. Hopefully not a blip.