WinterWolf Posted Thursday at 12:16 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:16 PM 6z Op runs, gonna Op run. Off hour runs are erratic more often than not. Do the ensembles share their idea? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Thursday at 12:17 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:17 PM 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Wow what a beautiful ridge out west on this gfs run. The amount of cold air is amazing thanks to the negative epo. Weenie run. 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Seeing these solutions right now is amazing. 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs cancelled winter 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro too Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 12:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:21 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Regarding this weekend, as usual occluded systems with random s/w’s are hard to nail down. Definitely a chance of a coating from the Monads to CT hills maybe some spots a little more. Just depends on where and how second low forms. Sort of favor north, but not all of the question it wraps in further south. Not expecting much here but it would be nice to get atleast a coating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Thursday at 12:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:22 PM 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Not expecting much here but it would be nice to get atleast a coating. Ya, just enjoy the rain which we haven’t seen in 3 months. It’s a good thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Thursday at 12:24 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:24 PM 16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I like that there's no real sign of breaking down the -WPO/EPO in the extended range on ensembles. That's going to be a key on whether December can sustain some good cold and snow chances or if we just get a 7-10 day transient period from near T-day to Dec 5th or so. I'm concerned about the EPO...if we get a -EPO to consistently link up with the -WPO, which is high confidence for me, in the seasonal mean, then I am going to bust a bit too warm and defenitely not snowy enough. I forecasted a bit of a disconnect there in that lower heights will periodically infiltrate at least the eastern portion of AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 12:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:26 PM 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Ok... What's also shocking is the amount of rain we're supposed to get has gone up. 1 to 1.5" in now? The for Friday night with something that just popped up last night it was very small. There is going to be some snow just north of us and just west of us of course, but we've been out of the Chance of snow here in Connecticut with this storm. It’s under an inch of you’d look at models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 12:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:26 PM 57 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: some models still have something .. just depends on temps and how heavy the precip is,,, enjoy your 1 to 2 Under1” radar looks bad 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 12:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:27 PM 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol. Donuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Thursday at 12:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:27 PM 9 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Yes, I do remember 04’s January frigid spell now that you say that..single digits for highs. I miss that kind of cold.....as much as it would elicit a quite a bout of murmured cursing at 44yo, I do miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Thursday at 12:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:32 PM 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Donuts Heavy icing with sprinkles. The good news is we’ll get more rain and maybe an ice storm throw in there at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Thursday at 12:34 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:34 PM I see some are getting there weenie on early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted Thursday at 12:39 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:39 PM 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Under1” radar looks bad wat? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Thursday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:46 PM I see the EURO already lost the 1899 blizzard redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted Thursday at 12:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:49 PM Funny how as soon as everyone starts mentioning the setup next weekend, it promptly disappears. Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Thursday at 12:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:56 PM 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see the EURO already lost the 1899 blizzard redux. Pattern still looks good. Caution though lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Thursday at 12:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:57 PM 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Funny how as soon as everyone starts mentioning the setup next weekend, it promptly disappears. Classic Yup..the irony is always classic/comical. It’ll probably pop back later in somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Thursday at 01:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:01 PM 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see the EURO already lost the 1899 blizzard redux. Winter is over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Thursday at 01:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:01 PM 20 minutes ago, metagraphica said: wat? in fairness he did not mention in what part of the world the radar looked bad.....coulda been Death Valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Thursday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:02 PM I still like the east based -EPO look. That hasn’t disappeared. Starts literally last day or so of November. I’m not putting effort into anything after Thanksgiving. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Thursday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:02 PM 22 minutes ago, metagraphica said: wat? A lot of brightbanding there over CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Thursday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:04 PM 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: A lot of brightbanding there over CT The sun will be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Thursday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:07 PM 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm concerned about the EPO...if we get a -EPO to consistently link up with the -WPO, which is high confidence for me, in the seasonal mean, then I am going to bust a bit too warm and defenitely not snowy enough. I forecasted a bit of a disconnect there in that lower heights will periodically infiltrate at least the eastern portion of AK. The EPO/WPO situation is why I have some cautious optimism about December right now. Impressive how it reloads and stays solidly negative on the EPS and GEFS all the way though the first week of December with no signs of breaking down. We’ll still have to worry about the trough diving down a bit too far west at times (this actually happened on the euro last night which turned our snowstorm next weekend into a front ender that changes to rain) but at least when you have the cross polar flow, you have a legit source region. Guidance also tries to start linking it up with western ridging as we go into December so maybe we can get a larger scale system when that happens. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Thursday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:08 PM 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: The sun will be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Thursday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:10 PM 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The EPO/WPO situation is why I have some cautious optimism about December right now. Impressive how it reloads and stays solidly negative on the EPS and GEFS all the way though the first week of December with no signs of breaking down. We’ll still have to worry about the trough diving down a bit too far west at times (this actually happened on the euro last night which turned our snowstorm next weekend into a front ender that changes to rain) but at least when you have the cross polar flow, you have a legit source region. Guidance also tries to start linking it up with western ridging as we go into December so maybe we can get a larger scale system when that happens. I still think I'm fine even with a cold first week of December because the warmth period mid month will overshadow the cold...the key will be how long the warmth persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Thursday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:10 PM 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The EPO/WPO situation is why I have some cautious optimism about December right now. Impressive how it reloads and stays solidly negative on the EPS and GEFS all the way though the first week of December with no signs of breaking down. We’ll still have to worry about the trough diving down a bit too far west at times (this actually happened on the euro last night which turned our snowstorm next weekend into a front ender that changes to rain) but at least when you have the cross polar flow, you have a legit source region. Guidance also tries to start linking it up with western ridging as we go into December so maybe we can get a larger scale system when that happens. Yeah I do like seeing that. Kind of a stable look to it. Hopefully whatever forcing is there stalls and keeps that jet west based in the Pacific. I’m in vacation so I haven’t dug deep into this stuff, but so far so good. But yeah still a EPOhNo risk if s/w’s dig too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 01:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:11 PM 30 minutes ago, metagraphica said: wat? That’s all bright banding. Bark not much bite. Moved thru here with light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Thursday at 01:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:11 PM Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still think I'm fine even with a cold first week of December because the warmth period mid month will overshadow the cold...the key will be how long the warmth persists. I hope your forecast and my December shit period fail miserably. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Thursday at 01:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:15 PM 9 minutes ago, kdxken said: The sun will be out soon. Could be a couple of breaks along the S coast later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 01:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:20 PM 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Could be a couple of breaks along the S coast later! Tomorrow should have at minimum party cloudy for awhile in dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Thursday at 01:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:21 PM Actually MJO going into phase 6 in December. That’s encouraging to see. Hopefully not a blip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now